The Week Ahead: just another day in (summer-y) paradise

Good evening, Foothills Weather Nation!

Can you believe we're already halfway through July? How time flies when you're having fun! (If you like the heat, that is.) Let's look at what the week ahead has in store for us.

Near Term (Today)

The National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for today:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
653 AM EDT Sun Jul 15 2018
This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening. The main threats will be cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty
winds, as well as brief heavy downpours. An isolated strong to severe
storm is possible as well, with damaging wind gusts and localized
flooding the greatest concern.

As they mentioned we may have some summer time thunderstorms threatening to make an appearance later tonight, but as it is the chances are reasonably low (20%). From here on today expect partly cloudy conditions that should thicken as we move into Monday, a smooth decline in temperatures down to around 70 degrees tonight, and light southwest winds of around 5 mph. 

Short Term Forecast (Monday-Thursday)

 The first half of the work week looks to be a bit soggy as Monday and Tuesday bring promise of rain and thunderstorms throughout their calendar day. Rainfall totals will be roughly 3/4" with potentially higher totals in areas heavily influenced by stronger thunderstorms and downpours. Wednesday and Thursday look to be drier than the start with mostly sunny conditions. Daily highs for the week will be on the lower side of seasonal with temperatures in the mid to upper 80's with nightly lows in the low 70's and upper 60's.

Long Term Forecast (Friday-Sunday)

This section of the forecast has changed a bit since the model runs of yesterday and this morning.

 500 mb isotachs 18z Sunday, July 15th, 2018 GFS valid 15z Saturday, July 21st, 2018

500 mb isotachs 18z Sunday, July 15th, 2018 GFS valid 15z Saturday, July 21st, 2018

As it was earlier, we were expecting to see a much wetter/weather active weekend, but the impact of the traveling upper level trough has lessened with the post noontime model runs. From what we can see now there will certainly still be a solid likelihood for rain for the later July weekend. The chances have been docked to around 30% for Friday evening and 40% for Saturday through Sunday. Still fair to expect some thunderstorms in the mix for this. Temperatures shouldn't be affected much by the progression of this trough, but such is to be expected in the summer. We will be paying close attention to the weekend to see if the trend will continue to decline.

Thanks for reading

Go get em' Weekday Warriors.

-Sinead L.

Sunday Futurecast (7/15/18)

Good Sunday morning, whether you are at morning services or enjoying a Sunday brunch or on the road today here is a look at what to expect weather-wise across the Foothills and Western Piedmont.

 

Higher pressures aloft continues to provide a stagnant weather pattern for the Carolinas, at the surface high pressure is starting to slide off the east coast today. While you Saturday featured warm but moderate levels of humidity, that will begin to transition over to a muggier airmass. As you can see on visible satellite we do have some clouds but those will continue to burn off through the afternoon…

 

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FUTURECAST:

 

Surface heating along with mesoscale features may be just enough to fire off a couple showers and storms later today and into the evening hours, best chances are in the Foothills and along the higher terrain. Temperatures will top out in the upper 80’s with a few low 90’s possible in Piedmont locations…

 

 

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Typical Summer Pattern Brings Nice Weekend With A Few Storms.

 Christopher White - Chief Meteorologist

Issued 2:30am Saturday July 14th, 2018 

 

Good Saturday Morning. I hope your weekend is off to a great start! As you get out the door this morning temps are warm with most locations in the upper 60’s. It’s partly to mostly cloudy across the area but no rain. High pressure centered over Eastern NC will limit instability across Alexander, Catawba, and Lincoln Counties to only a 10% chance. West of roughly Hwy 16/321 in Burke, Caldwell, Cleveland, McDowell, and Rutherford Counties there will be a 30% chance. These showers and storms will be slow moving but should quickly dissipate in about 30min time frame. Highs today will be in the mid and upper 80’s. Timing for storms today will be between 2pm and 9pm (peak heating hours).

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Sunday is the worst of the two days weather wise. High pressure that was over Eastern NC on Saturday will shift East off the Carolina Coastline.  Southeast flow will lift up the Eastern Side of the Blue Ridge.  An approaching piece of energy will interact with that lift on the East side of The Blue Ridge creating widespread showers and storms after 11am.  A few showers could even be ongoing before 11am across the western counties. In response to cloud cover temps will be held in check on Sunday as well, with highs in the upper 80’s to around 90°. Rain chances are 40 - 60%. Even though there will be decent coverage of showers and storms across the area, some people will miss out on the rain altogether this weekend, and that’s why I’m not too bullish on precipitation chances.

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Looking into next week Monday remains unsettled. We will start the day off with mainly a cloudy day.  A stronger lobe of energy will rotate through the area Monday and interact with an upper level feature to bring another good 40-60% chance of rain. There will likely be a few more appearances of the sun on Monday. A couple of the storms on Monday could be strong to severe. Again though not everyone gets rain.  High temps should make it into the low 90’s.  

 

Moisture looks to stick around through the week and we will carry 40-60% chances each day. We will keep and eye on Thursday because the rain may be more widespread as multiple pieces of energy interact with a cold front that will likely stall somewhere across the Carolinas.  Tuesday looks to be the hottest day, in the low and mid 90’s.  

 Weather Predictions Center 7 Day Precipiation Outlook. 

Weather Predictions Center 7 Day Precipiation Outlook. 

We hope you have a wonderful Saturday. Stay safe!

 

Graphics source are from NOAA Weather Predictions Center. 

 

Friday afternoon briefing: Mild weekend in store as we transition to more active pattern next week

Good Friday afternoon, the weekend is right on our doorstep…we have a brief relaxation of the summer heat thanks in part to high pressure to our north helping drop a backdoor frontal boundary just to our south. Northeast winds have wedged down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians providing a cooler Friday for the region.

 

 

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As you can see it is definitely cooler across the Carolinas and into Georgia along this wedge configuration but as you drop further south and west away from the influence of the cool air damming, summer heat and humidity remains across the Gulf Coast Region, Mid South and into Florida.

 

 

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This easterly flow will last through the rest of today and linger into Saturday, we do still carry isolated storm chances through the weekend but overall the action will be limited. High temps will be in the mid to upper 80’s on average, a few degrees below mid July norms…

 

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Once we get to Sunday, high pressure will be exiting off the Carolina coastline meaning a southeast fetch off the Atlantic will begin to materialize. It should have a major impact on the Sunday afternoon weather but there could be some degree of upslope flow developing by Sunday night. This will all lead into a more active weather pattern for Monday as we will have deep moisture and a trigger to help initiate storm activity.

 

 

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Daniel Crawley (Twitter: @SoApps1979)

Foothills Weather Network  (Twitter: @FHWxN)

 

Midweek weather briefing: Dog Days of Summer are here, rain/storm chances to slowly increase through forecast period.

Good Wednesday afternoon, we are definitely in those lazy, hazy days of summer across the Eastern US. “The Dog Days of Summer” as many want to refer it as to being…

 

 

Looking at the water vapor image this afternoon, plenty of things that you can see at work. First off, Hurricane Chris off the East Coast of the US being steered away due to the sharp trough that is sliding through New England. South of where Chris is, down in the Bahamas you can see the concentrated moisture, believe it or not that is the remnants of what once was Beryl that formed late last week in the Tropical Atlantic ocean. Good news is that Beryl will follow the same path as Chris, will not develop and remain off-shore.

 

 

A weak boundary thanks in part to the digging trough is pushing southward toward the Southeast US. Its this boundary that will be the main player in our weather in the short term. A few showers and storms are possible the next couple days due to this feature but its not real strong in nature and the moisture content to work with is limited…so that will keep storm coverage limited as well…

 

 

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That’s a look at what is going on now…let’s take a gander at what could be coming down the road through the rest of the 7-day forecast and beyond. We are nearing that point in the calendar where the main jet stream is in its furthest north position for the summer season…and the 500 mb forecast through the next five days clearly shows that. Above normal heights across a good part of North America means that the pattern will be free of any major storm systems. Any storm chances in this part of the forecast through the upcoming weekend will be driven more by mesoscale effects (outflow boundaries, seabreeze, terrain influenced lift). In general expect hot and humid days, mild evenings and isolated to scattered storm chances that will vary each day.

 

 

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Now, as we get into next week things may begin to change a little bit. There are signs that the overall higher heights across the United States may break into two sections, one centered over the four-corners region and another over New England and extending into the Northwest Atlantic ocean. In between those two regions, we may see a general weakness or lowering of heights begin to develop…and for here in the Southeast US, lowering heights is about all you need in mid July to help promote more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage in the afternoons. Those same mesoscale features that we mentioned earlier are in play but the atmosphere overall will be lessed capped if the ensemble guidance holds firm in that is it showing.

 

 

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Temperature-wise the impacts won’t be all that significant. Expect daytime high’s within 3-5 degrees of what is normal for this time of the year, it’s just the increased potential for precipitation…especially starting next week as the weakness aloft begins to develop over the Eastern US.

 

 

 

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Daniel Crawley: (Twitter: @SoApps1979)

Foothills Weather Network: (Twitter: @FHWxN)

 

 

Warmer Day On Tap As Tropical Storm Chris Sits Off Coast.

5:00am Tuesday July 10, 2018

Chief Meteorologist Chris White

 

Goo Tuesday Morning. I hope your work week is off to a great start. This will be a short weather briefing as there isn’t a ton to talk about. Temps as you head out the door his morning are running 3-6 degrees above what they were Monday Morning. Most areas are in the low 60’s. Up on the Easter slopes temps are in the mid and upper 50’s. A bit of a muggy feel returning to the air as well. Today temps will climb quickly and reach up to around 90° for a high temperature. Along the Hwy 74 Cooridor though low 90’s are likely. We are going to keep rain chances out of the forecast today. So be sure you water those gardens early this morning or late this evening after the sun gets off them.  You will notice some high cirrus clouds today as well. Those could make for a spactacular sunset tonight.

Overnight temps fall back into the mid and upper 60’s under mostly clear skies.  Tropical Storm Chris will finally lift off to the Northeast away from the coastline but will likely become the second hurricane of the season as it does so. The only impacts to the coast will be the rip currents and bigger waves.

Wednesday will have a few more clouds around than what we see today but those won’t be a huge deal.   Tropical Cyclone Chris will continue it’s Northeast movement and likely will end any impacts to the east coast by Wednesday Evening. High temps for Wednesday will be in the low 90’s.

Thursday will be our biggest impactful weather day this week. A cold front will move I to the area accompanied by a little piece of energy as well. As this front crosses the area scattered thunderstorms will develop and move South. There should be enough instability and steepening lapse rates aloft to prose atleast a marginal risk for isolated microbursts. There is also a very minuscule threat of localized flash flooding if those storms move repeatedly over the same areas. High temps will be held down a tad on Thursday, only reaching the upper 80’s. 

After Thursday the weekend looks to be the typical summer pattern. A few scattered storms that are short lived each afternoon and temps in the low 90’s. The next front and higher chance of rain return by Monday.

We will keep our eyes on the remnants of Beryl. Beryl has been downgraded to a disturbance after briefly becoming a hurricane over the weekend. Those remnants move into more favorable atmospheric conditions and warmer waters on Monday. No impact threats yet, just something to watch.

Have a great Tuesday!!! 

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A brief reprieve from the summer heat this weekend...

Good Friday evening, it’s been a hot week across the Western Carolinas but a big change is coming tomorrow. Today showers and thunderstorms have been abundant thanks in part to a backdoor front that has moved south into the Carolinas. That was the lift needed to spark showers and storms today with all the humidity that was in place.

 

This front will move just south of the area tonight and will help set the stage for a cooler regime on Saturday. A sprawling area of high pressure in the Great Lakes Region is the main player in this weather change…northeast winds will begin to kick in overnight tonight and will be established by tomorrow morning…as you can see a summer-type wedge setup is expected across Western North Carolina.

 

 

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Moisture along and north of the backdoor front is going to be hard to dissipate so expect a cloudy start to your Saturday and somewhat muggy.

 

 

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This hybrid-wedge looks to have some staying power through a good part of the day…by tomorrow afternoon high pressure remains firmly in hold across the Eastern Great Lakes and will configure itself down the Eastern side of the Appalachians. The big question is how fast will clouds and low level moisture will scour out tomorrow. That will play a big role in temps...

 

 

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 This more refreshing airmass should make good progress on Saturday night and that will lead to a beautiful second half to the weekend. For details on what we expect check out the 7-Day forecast here at our website a bit later...

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

First Hurricane of the 2018 Season, Beryl. 5:00am Friday Advisory

 ...TINY BERYL BECOMES THE FIRST HURRICANE OF THE 2018 ATLANTIC HURRICANE SEASON...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.6N 45.1W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1830 KM ESE OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.

Interests in the Lesser Antilles should monitor the progress of Beryl.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located near latitude 10.6 North, longitude 45.1 West. Beryl is moving toward the west near 14 mph (22 km/h). A faster west-northwestward motion is expected through theweekend.  On the forecast track, the
center of Beryl will remain east of the Lesser Antilles through early Sunday.

Satellite data indicate the maximum sustained winds have increased to near 75 mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast today. Beryl is forecast to quickly weaken by late Saturday and become a tropical storm or degenerate into a strong open trough near the Lesser Antilles late Sunday or Monday.

Beryl is a very compact hurricane. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 10 miles (20 km) from the center and
tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb (29.39 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Brown/National Hurricane Center
 https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/144424.shtml?tswind120#contents
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Hottest Weather Yet To Come??

Good Thursday everyone. I hope that you all had a great 4th of July. 

We start to transition into a stormier and cooler time frame for later this afternoon through Saturday. A cold front will work it's way into the area from the Northwest giving us ample chances of showers and storms on Friday and Saturday as the cold front slows down and breifly stalls over the area. Temperatures also will be a bit cooler as they are anticipated to reach the low to mid 80's. 

 Friday PM 

Friday PM 

 Saturday PM 

Saturday PM 

 

Then we watch another high pressure move into the area. This high pressure could be strong than the one we've seen over the past several days. At the current thinking, the weather models are indicating that we could see the hottest weather we've see all year starting early next week and carrying through the weekend. Both mid range weather models are pretty consistent with the Euro & GFS only being off by a few degrees.  Only minimum shower and storm chances is the current thinking. So it will be hot and dry most everyone. 

 

 European Model 

European Model 

 American Model 

American Model 

So make sure you have a place you can cool off next week, and please remember those heat safety tips! 

 

We will continue to monitor the situation and update as needed.

 

Scotty Powell 

Meteorologist

Follow me on Twitter: @ScottyPowell_WX 

4th of July Futurecast: Summertime ridge continues to dominate, slim storm chances...

Good Wednesday morning, Happy 4th of July and more importantly…Happy 242nd Birthday to the United States of America!

 

 

Looking at the synoptics a classic 4th of July pattern continues. Aloft, high pressure remains in tact across the Mid-Atlantic Region and the Northeast US. For here in North Carolina we have a light easterly flow along the southern periphery of the ridge. The easterly flow at the low and mid levels is pumping hot and humid weather into the interior Southeast US including the Carolinas. Temperatures yesterday were in the low to mid 90’s however heat index values were in the triple digits for a while yesterday across the Piedmont and mid/upper 90’s in the Foothills.

 

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Today’s numbers might be slightly lower overall but it will continue to be at times uncomfortable outside. If you plan to spend extended amounts of time outdoors today, please remain well hydrated and find a cool spot. Storm chances look very slim at this point for today but given the heat and humidity in place you can’t totally eliminate the chances of a lone shower/storm…

 

 

 

 

FUTURECAST:

 

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FUTURECAST TEMPERATURES

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Overall we don't see too many hazards out there today for your 4th of July festivities whether is be in your backyard, pool, lake or at local events. Just remember to remain well hydrated with water and sports drinks and find shelter indoors or in the shade occasionally to beat the heat! We will monitor the radar through the day to see if anything possibly could impact events both this afternoon and this evening around the time most local firework displays will take place.

 

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Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

 

Monday Futurecast: Continued hot and humid weather to kick off 4th of July week...

Good Monday morning…we are in a stagnant pattern with high pressure aloft centered north and east of the Carolinas.

 

Ever heard of the term “dirty ridge”? We are definitely seeing that right now across the Eastern US. Aloft, high pressure is located across the Mid-Atlantic and that is bringing very hot conditions for the 4th of July Week. Since we are south of the ridge, a light easterly flow is advecting low level moisture into the Carolinas. As you can see on the water vapor image we have an upper low off the East coast moving west toward the Southeast Coastline. You can also see on the water vapor that a good bit of moisture at the low levels are trapped across the Interior Southeast.

 

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Visible satellite shows even better the low level clouds that are hanging quite tough this morning across the Southeast including the Western Carolinas. Also, of note…a weak surface low may be developing in the North Central Gulf of Mexico…overall given high pressure is the dominant player aloft, there are plenty of features that is preventing the region from just baking under sunny skies.

 

 

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With the lack of a trigger and with clouds limiting surface instability, shower and storm chances are not very high today. A stray storm is possible through the afternoon…

 

 

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Temps today are expected to reach the low 90’s by 3 pm…but that will be dependent on just how much the region clears out after lunchtime.

 

 

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Have a great day!

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

 

 

The Week Ahead: Your Fourth Of July Week Forecast

Good evening, Foothills Weather Nation! We are closing up the end of our first weekend of July and looking onward to the holiday week of the 4th. I'm sure that many of you who look forward to the festivities are wondering what the forecast might be, so let's dive into that now.

Near Term (Tonight-Monday)

We are on the decline of temperatures now that our sun has gone away, which can be quite the relief as we have been greeted by summer's traditional humid and hot presence. Likewise we have had a pop of nature's light show as a few showers rolled through the area earlier. Tonight's conditions will be a light southwesterly wind outside of any travelling overnight storms, partly cloudy conditions, and a nightly low in the low 70's. Monday will start off with some patchy fog that will be clear by 10am. Expect Monday day conditions to be mostly cloudy with a high hovering near 90 degrees and light winds from the south at around 5 mph. Chance of thunderstorms for Monday are relatively low with a 20% chance.

Short Term Forecast (Tuesday-Thursday)

Tuesday we seem to have a slight hiccup in precipitable water, which will allow for our daily high to be slightly warmer into the low 90's as well as mostly cloudy conditions, but will likewise cause for more afternoon convection and a higher chance of precipitation (30%) for the calendar day. Wednesday, the 4th of July we see that precipitable water starts to bulk back up the further into the day we go. This isn't particularly helpful for evening festivities and fireworks, but we can't say to not expect a firework show until we get to the night of. It's possible we'll get lucky! Conditions pardon the precipitation risks (50%) are otherwise quite pleasant with a northeasterly flow, daily high in the upper 80's, partly cloudy conditions, and a nightly low hovering just at 70 degrees. Thursday has an even heavier look of precipitable water and a 50% chance of rain for the calendar day with a mirroring temperature setup as Wednesday. It's safe to bet that when and where it will rain on Thursday will likely get pretty heavy downpours with a likelihood of cloud to ground lightning and gusty winds. 

Long Term Forecast (Friday-Sunday)

Friday and Saturday will be our big repeat days for the week where we can expect partly cloudy conditions, precipitation probabilities (50%), easterly winds, daily highs in the upper 80's, and diurnal lows hovering at 70 degrees. Sunday looks like we could see a quite noticeable break in humidity as a dry, cool airmass clips us from the north. Expect mostly sunny conditions, a daily high in the mid 80's, and east northeasterly flow.

Thanks for reading. Have a great week!

Friday afternoon briefing: Heat returns for the weekend and 4th of July Week

Good Friday afternoon…the weekend is upon us! Remember the old saying that it’s going to be “Hotter than the 4th of July?” Well, the timing looks to be pretty good in that high pressure is settling in across the Eastern US for the weekend and going into the holiday week.

 

Looking at the water vapor this afternoon, we have high pressure in the mid levels located squarely across the Carolinas. That is a distinct change from the active northwest flow that has dominated our weather for most of this week. The change is underway and will continue through the future. Skies are mostly sunny today with 90’s abound.

 

 

 

High pressure through the weekend will translate north and center itself over Pennsylvania and then by next week expand itself to encompass most locations east of the Mississippi River. This will result in hot and dry weather under the high pressure with moisture streaming around the periphery. Storm chances are going to be slim through the next several days but the atmosphere may not be totally capped, so therefor any stray storm has the chance to be pretty stout given the surface heating and low level moisture in place.

 

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Here's a look at precip expected across the Eastern US through next seven days, as you can see the most moisture will lie along the Gulf Coast.

 

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Low and mid 90's are expected through the entire forecast period with the early part of next week being the worst of the heat and humidity...be careful if you have outdoor plans next week. Remain hydrated and take frequent breaks to get out of the heat.

 

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8:30pm: Severe Weather Threat Ends. Periods Of Heavy Rain Still Possible Before Midnight.

Christopher White - Chief Meteorologist

 

8:30pm: Severe Weather threat ends. Rain will move off the mountains and it could be heavy at times but by morning this rainfall will have ended. Another MCS will be making its way through East Tennessee or close to there by sunrise but as it moves East it will weaken as it interacts with stable air. More thunderstorms are likely and they will likely be widespread again Wednesday afternoon.

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 7:30pm Update: Storms have now entered the mountains and are showing signs of weakening. The main area of concern will be the Southwest portion of the state where widespread wind damage is already occurring. Now we still think the threat for damaging winds exists from Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, and Rutherford Counties. Basically the greatest threats will be in the western portion of those counties and then the storms should weaken as they move East. Once they get down to Alexander, Catawba, Lincoln, and Cleveland Counties the storms shouldn’t be severe. There may still be a rumble of thunder and likely some rain in those counties but by in large the severe threat remains West of there. We are live on our Foothills Weather Network McDowell County Page Until the storms weaken. We will also continuously provide updates here. Again, main threats for damaging winds remain in Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, and Rutherford Counties.

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5:00pm Forecast Update:  As wendiscussed earimer in the day an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) has developed across Kentucky and Tennessee. Our area has now been upgraded into a slight risk of Severe Thunderstorms Through Midnight. It looks like this line of storms will reach the mountains first between 6pm and 9pm, then move east affecting our 8 counties between 7 and 10pm. These storms could produce widespread damaging winds across our area again.  It is important to note that the current rainfall and storms affecting our area now have stabilized things over all of our 8 counties. That stabilization may do little to slow this line of storms down and we could briefly break into some sun between now and when this line arrives. That would destabilize things a little before the line arrives. So our update to you at this point is to make preparations for the loss of power, damage to trees and powerlines, and possibly winds that could damage structures between 7pm and 12am. We will continue to update this blog post so check back often.

 

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Forecast Update12:30pm:  Precipitation chances increasing now this afternoon.  Shower and storms are developing and lightning alerts are already being issued. A cold front has stalled along Hwy 74. Moisture is running up and over that front causing shower and storms to develop overhead.  A cluster of thunderstorms has really gotten its act together over Kentucky. It’s moving East-Southeast but most of that cluster will pass by to our North. Caldwell and Alexander may be impacted though. CAPE  has climbed to 1500 j/kg in response to sunshine across the area. Catawba, Alexander, and Lincoln have seen more clouds this morning than our western counties and their CAPE is a bit lower than our western foothills, around 900 j/kg.  All of that being said expect showers and storms to increase in coverage this afternoon to about 60-80% coverage. 

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Morning.....

Good Tuesday Morning.  Low clouds and fog are likely across much of the area this morning.  At 2:30am the cold front that moved in from the North yesterday has now stalled roughly along I-40 but then stretches toward Boone before crossing the mountains.  This frontal boundary will act as a focal point for more showers and thunderstorms later today.  In fact models indicate that storms really start to fire just after the Noon hour.  This morning though showers have developed over the Northern counties in Alexander and Caldwell.  A few of those showers are drifting Southeast into Catawba County as well. 

 Current surface map at 2:30am Tuesday Morning

Current surface map at 2:30am Tuesday Morning

Models indicate another stormy afternoon on tap as said above.  It looks like a few storms will develop in the mountains first during late morning Tuesday and then those will drift South and East.  These first storms will be widely scattered 40% coverage. Shortly after Noon stems could start to become widespread. There is the potential another MCS develops in East TN or maybe even on top of our area. Scattered wind damage is likely again. Right now our area is in a marginal risk for severe weather. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get upgraded into a slight risk though later today. Watch for updates as we go through the day.

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This morning’s SPC Outlook.

Severe Storms rocked the region this afternoon, wind damage common...

Good Monday evening…sections of the coverage area are picking up and cleaning up from a severe weather event that occurred during the late afternoon hours. A backdoor front, jet stream energy and sufficient surface instability helped trigger a line of severe thunderstorms that began across the Tennessee Valley during the late morning hours and intensified across the Western Carolinas as we reached peak heating.

 

Today’s severe weather included a total of four Severe Thunderstorm Warnings issued by the National Weather Service. Multiple reports of wind damage was submitted area-wide with the heaviest concentration across the Foothills from Northern Rutherford County northeast to sections of Alexander County.

 

Storms were crossing into the mountains around 3 pm today and encountered high surface instability east of the Blue Ridge. As you can see on the meso-analysis, CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) values ranged from 2500-3000 which is more than twice the amount of CAPE needed for thunderstorm development and persistence…

 

 Mesoanalysis CAPE values (3 pm today)

Mesoanalysis CAPE values (3 pm today)

 

 

 

The storms really began to intensify once it tapped into the surface instability and by shortly after 4 pm the first severe weather warnings of the afternoon were issued in the foothills. These storms translated southeast through the evening commute impacting most everyone in the coverage area with some combination of heavy rainfall, damaging winds, hail and deadly lightning. The severe weather threat started to diminish from west to east a couple hours after the initial reports came in and by sunset all that was left was mainly stratiform rainfall east of the mountains.

 

 NEXRAD image (4:31 pm today)

NEXRAD image (4:31 pm today)

 

 

We have collected several photos from our viewers on social media, a good number of trees and power lines were downed especially in McDowell, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba and Alexander Counties…

 

(Click on images to move through photo gallery)

 

 

The severe weather threat has ended for tonight, thankfully…additional storm chances are in the forecast including tomorrow with temperatures remaining near or above late June values…

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

Monday Afternoon/Evening Futurecast: Severe Weather is possible later today...

Good Monday afternoon, we continue to monitor for the potential of severe weather later today and into tonight. In the past hour a Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for a large section of North Carolina until 10 pm. The Watch does include all eight counties in the Foothills Weather Network Coverage area.

 

Strong damaging winds of 60+ mph are possible inside the Watch area from any storms that may impact the region later today. Large hail, frequent lightning and heavy rainfall is possible as well..

 

 

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Storms could impact the region in multiple segments, we currently have a cluster of storms across East Tennessee that will move into the Western Carolinas by 3 pm or so…another round may occur during the early evening hours and a third cluster of storms has the potential to impact parts of the area late tonight…

 

 

FUTURE CAST

 

3 pm

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5 pm

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8 pm

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11 pm

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Please remain Weather Aware over the next 12 hours as severe weather could threaten your community. We will provide updates here at our website and on social media!

 

 

Slight Risk For Severe Thunderstorms Issued For Monday Afternoon. Damaging Winds Possible.

Christopher White - Chief Meteorologist

Good morning. Please see Sineads full weather discussion here for the upcoming week.   This is a severe weather update for Monday Afternoon 6/25/2018.

 

The National Weather Service Storms Predictions Center has issued a “Slight Risk” for severe thunderstorms Monday Afternoon. A Slight Risk is risk level 2 out of 5 on the severe thunderstorm risk scale.  Pieces of energy will move into the area from the West Monday Afternoon. Additionally a back door cold front will be moving into the area turning winds from Southwest to Northeast, as the front moves South and eventually stalls.  It appears possible that enough sheer (changing of winds speed or direction) will be present to grow these slow moving storms into small line segments or clusters.  Ahead of these small segments or clusters damaging winds will be possible. 

Storms will begin to fire after 2pm.  The energy should arrive in the mountains first around 4pm and that is when these storms should begin to become stronger, having the potential to produce wind gusts well over 60mph.  

 

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Yellow shaded area is Slight Risk

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Due to the slow movement of these storms and the potential for clusters of storms to organize there is a Marginal Risk for flash flooding as well. The greatest risk for flash flooding is in Eastern NC it looks like right now which is where the flash flood Slight risk is located. (See below)

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Here is Futurecast Radar:

Swipe to the left to pull up next image.

 

We will update through the day so monitor for the lates.

The Week Ahead 06/24/18

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation!

This past Thursday we celebrated the first day of summer or summer solstice which is the longest day of the year! It's only getting shorter from here on out, but we won't be feeling the results of that for months to come. Summer is in full tilt as we look at our week ahead with pretty minimal changes and events.

Near Term Forecast (Sunday night-Monday)

The sun is gone and temperatures are steadily on the decline. We have a chance (40%) of thunderstorms going into the final hours of the weekend as a stationary front has set itself up across the Carolinas. Overnight low tonight will be right around 70 degrees for the region with a light westerly wind of 5 mph. Come Monday we will see a shift in the wind to a northeasterly flow, indicating veering (clockwise) vertical profiles and warm air advection. With a bounty of heat, humidity, and convective lifting we are likely to see a relatively weather active Monday with plenty of pop up thunderstorms, localized heavy rains and gusts, cloud to ground lightning, and potentially hail. Daily high for Monday is in the upper 80's. The majority of the precipitation event is expected after 5 pm. 

Short Term forecast (Tuesday-Thursday)

The aforementioned stationary front will begin to separate as early as Tuesday helping drop the daily high a smidge (mid 80's), but don't get too comfortable with that as Wednesday will be back up in the upper 80's. Tuesday and Wednesday is where we will see our first section of precipitation events for the week with plenty of opportunity for thunderstorms and heavy downpours. The bulk of these rain events will take place during the afternoon to evening hours as per summery protocol. Thursday has the opportunity to be on the drier side as a ridge begins to build over the region following the exit of the upper atmospheric trough that our stationary front has been associated with. Thursday conditions have a daily high in the mid 90's, southerly flow of around 5-10 mph, mostly sunny, and a nightly low in the ever consistent low 70's. 

Long Term Forecast (Friday-Sunday) Our dry spell will be short-lived as a flux of moisture will begin to ebb back into the region bringing fairly low chances of precipitation (30%) for the entirety of the weekend with higher likelihoods in the afternoon and pm hours. Highs look to stay in the mid 90's with mostly sunny am conditions with partly cloudy conditions in the afternoons. 

Thanks for reading!

Today’s Severe Weather Risk Is Marginal Across Western NC.

8:00am 

Christopher White - Chief Meteorologist

Good morning. This is a follow up to Daniel’s Futurecast that you can find here. The National Weather Service Storm Predictions Center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather today across all of Western North Carolina. Marginal Risk is risk level 1 out of 5.  We expect several rounds of thunderstorms today and the severe risk is isolated. Main threats are damaging winds and frequent lightning. The strongest storms could produce some hail.

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