FORECAST DISCUSSION: FRIDAY, OCTOBER 20TH, 2017

SECTION 1: A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND

Conditions should remain warm and sunny during the days and clear and crisp at night for at least Friday and Saturday as high pressure remains in the vicinity. Southwest flow will begin Saturday afternoon as high pressure slowly begins to exit the area. High temperatures will be in the middle and upper 70s, with a few areas reaching the lower 80s, while lows will remain in the 40s. By Sunday, an upper-level cut-off low will begin to develop over the central United States, which will be the source of our next significant weather disturbance. 

SECTION 2: SIGNIFICANT RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK

As was mentioned in the previous section, a cut-off low will develop on Sunday and move toward our area as we head into the day on Monday. In advance of this slow-moving synoptic-scale feature, a strong moist flow will develop out of the south and southwest. This moist flow combined with an incoming frontal disturbance will provide the mechanism for creating significant amounts of precipitation. Eventually, this area of upper-level low pressure will be absorbed into the larger synoptic-scale flow, allowing the precipitation to move off the East Coast. If the cut-off low is absorbed into the synoptic-scale trough sooner, the heavy precipitation axis will occur to the west, leaving us with only moderate precipitation amounts. If the cut-off low is absorbed into the broader flow later, the heavy precipitation axis may impact us as well as areas in Central and Eastern North Carolina. As of Friday morning, most mid-range forecast models are anticipating somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 inches for our area between Monday morning and Wednesday morning.

European Model (ECMWF) Forecast of 500-mb Geopotential Height (contours) and anomalies (shading) for Monday, October 23rd, 2017 at 1200 UTC (8 a.m. ET). The most important things to notice are the location of the small area of low heights (denoted in blue) and the positioning of the green arrow indicating moist flow. Image courtesy of Accuweather Professional

European Model (ECMWF) Forecast of 500-mb Geopotential Height (contours) and anomalies (shading) for Monday, October 23rd, 2017 at 1200 UTC (8 a.m. ET). The most important things to notice are the location of the small area of low heights (denoted in blue) and the positioning of the green arrow indicating moist flow. Image courtesy of Accuweather Professional

ECMWF Model Forecasted 925-mb Meridional Wind Anomaly for Monday, October 23rd at 1800 UTC (2 p.m. ET). Meridional Wind is the North-South component of the wind. Orange and Red shading represents an area of strong southerly flow, indicating the region where the most Gulf moisture may be pulled northward. This is similar to the area of the green arrow on the previous slide. Image courtesy of Accuweather Professional

ECMWF Model Forecasted 925-mb Meridional Wind Anomaly for Monday, October 23rd at 1800 UTC (2 p.m. ET). Meridional Wind is the North-South component of the wind. Orange and Red shading represents an area of strong southerly flow, indicating the region where the most Gulf moisture may be pulled northward. This is similar to the area of the green arrow on the previous slide. Image courtesy of Accuweather Professional

GFS Model (American) Forecasted Precipitation amounts through Wednesday, October 25th, at 1200 UTC (8:00 a.m. ET). This model indicates 2-3" of rain for our area. Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather

GFS Model (American) Forecasted Precipitation amounts through Wednesday, October 25th, at 1200 UTC (8:00 a.m. ET). This model indicates 2-3" of rain for our area. Image courtesy of Pivotal Weather

ECMWF Model Forecasted Precipitation amounts from Monday morning through Wednesday morning. This model is showing amounts of 1.5-3" in our area, with some mountain locations possibly seeing 3-5" of rain. Image courtesy of Accuweather Professional

ECMWF Model Forecasted Precipitation amounts from Monday morning through Wednesday morning. This model is showing amounts of 1.5-3" in our area, with some mountain locations possibly seeing 3-5" of rain. Image courtesy of Accuweather Professional

SECTION 3: ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LATER NEXT WEEK

Once the rain that will impact our area Monday and Tuesday moves off to the east, it will be replaced by cool and dry air coming down from Canada. Temperatures in the middle and latter half of next week should fall considerably, with some high elevations possibly recording their first sub-freezing low temperature.

ECMWF Model Forecasted 500 mb Geopotential Height (contours) and Anomalies (shading) for Wednesday, October 25th at 1200 UTC (8 a.m. ET). The wording indicates the location of warm and cool air. Image courtesy of Accuweather Professional

ECMWF Model Forecasted 500 mb Geopotential Height (contours) and Anomalies (shading) for Wednesday, October 25th at 1200 UTC (8 a.m. ET). The wording indicates the location of warm and cool air. Image courtesy of Accuweather Professional

Have a great Friday!

Chase Scott Graham

Weekend Warm Up

Good Thursday everyone! I hope that you are having a wonderful day so far. 

Foggy start for most areas in Western North Carolina. We have some warmer air moving in from the Southwest and that is interacting with the cool dense air. That should start to mix out as we go through the morning. Once the fog does burn off, we should see another mostly sunny day with our temperatures moving into the low 70's. Like I mentioned earlier, Southwest flow will start to take over as the high pressure moves off the coast, so tonight we won't be as cold, as our temps will only bottom out in the mid to upper 40's. 

A beautiful weekend for Western North Carolina, as we begin to warm up. Friday sunny skies will lead our highs into the mid 70's.

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Saturday and Sunday we are mostly sunny with highs in the mid 70's. 

 

Monday we start to see some changes take place. A strong cold front is set to push through the area late Monday into Tuesday. Ahead of the front a strong southerly push of air will lead to some upslope flow rain in the foothill and mountain locations on Monday. The front will push into the area Monday evening into Tuesday by midday.

The Euro is slower (Tuesday PM)

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The GFS is little faster (Late Monday PM). 

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Whenever the front moves in, we are expecting it to bring some nice rain totals to the area. Most locations in Western North Carolina will see between 1-3" of rain. As the front pushes through a few thunderstorms can't be ruled out either. 

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The front will bring in much colder air into the area. Starting Wednesday through the weekend highs only mange to make it into the upper 50's to low 60's. 

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Looking long term it looks like the cool fall air will stick around as the next few weeks look to be below normal. 

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Have a great day! 

Scotty Powell 

Meteorologist 

Twitter: @ScottyPowell_WX 

Fall like weather pattern locked in through end of the week

Good Wednesday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont…it’s a chilly start to the day with temperatures in the 30’s and 40’s across the region at 7 am...

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High pressure at the surface will remain firmly in control for the next few days, meaning pleasant afternoons with sunny conditions and chilly night time temperatures. High’s today’s will be in the mid to upper 60’s area wide. With high pressure and light winds overhead, those clear skies will translate to a cool start to your Thursday morning…upper 30’s and 40’s will be likely again with some frost in sheltered locations.

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A moderating trend in temperatures will begin on Thursday and will persist going into the weekend. High pressure will remain overhead but at this point the cold air delivered into the Carolinas will be modified by this point. Thursday’s high’s will be in the low 70’s with warmer night time values in the 40’s. Friday and Saturday will also see a continued uptick in temperatures as day time high’s will be in the mid to upper 70s…which is back to values around five degrees above normal for this time of the year.

 

Once we reach the end of the upcoming weekend trough will begin to take place over the middle part of the United States, that will finally get the flow both at the surface and aloft to come out of the southwest. This trough will deepen as it slowly moves east. The result will be mild weather, increasing amounts of clouds and humidity. Eventually this will lead to an unsettled weather pattern as we get into the early part of next week.

 

Looking way out in the long range, more cold air intrusions will invade the Southeast US by the middle part of next week. We are definitely in the fall season now with the transitory pattern that is setting up.



Have a great Wednesday....

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Weather Discussion Tuesday 10/17/17

I hope your work week is out to a good start. Fall has finally arrived. Clear skies today with some light breezes. High temps after this morning’s cold start will get into the upper 60’s.  

Frost Advisories up for all of our counties with the exception of Cleveland and Rutherford. However, I think there will be frost in this two counties as well.

The good weather will continue. After a cold start on Wednesday look for a slight warm up with highs in the 70’s the rest of the week.

 Another strong cold front could arrive early next week.  We will watch that for the potential of severe weather and more rainfall. 

 

Chris

Sunday, Oct. 15 2017 Weather Discussion

October has had quite a few tricks over treats so far this year. October has felt more like Aug-tober with the unseasonably warm temperatures and robust, late summer-esque weather setups. A week ago our forecasting area was thoroughly rocked by Hurricane Nate. We wrote a review on it here: 

www.foothillsweathernetwork.com/weatherbriefing/2017/10/11/hurricane-nate-a-look-back-at-the-impacts-here-in-western-north-carolina

Let's talk about what we have setting up for our week ahead. 


Tonight into the earlier half of tomorrow we will have a cold front that will bring a reasonable chance of rainfall for the area, but this will be nothing close to what we experienced last week as it's a rather mild event with no obvious threats of severe weather. Tomorrow's high will get to the upper 60's possibly lower 70's depending on how quick the cold front can move out. Monday into Tuesday we will feel the temperatures drop down to the low 40's, finally suggesting that fall may actually be around the corner. Tuesday will be the coolest day this week with a high in the mid 60's, overnight low in the low 40's again and sunny conditions as a high pressure builds in behind the front.

Unfortunately this cold snap won't hold it's vigor, but we can say farewell to the 80's (for now). The rest of the forecasting week onto next Sunday is mostly sunny conditions, negligible precipitation probabilities, overnight lows staying in the 40's with the high's peaking back into the 70's, and the upper 70's appearing in again by next weekend.

Calm, benign conditions ahead, thank goodness.

Thank you for reading. Have a blessed week.

Sinead Lockhart

 

Saturday Discussion: Return to more October-like weather is just around the corner...

Good Saturday to everyone…as you head out the door we are still dealing with clouds and low level moisture thanks in part to yesterday’s cold air damming event. That will hang tough early on but I feel that conditions will improve as the day progresses. Temperatures this afternoon will get up into the upper 70’s to around 80.

 

As we head into tonight winds should begin to veer around to the southeast, that will lead into a much better second half of the weekend. Sunday will feature partly cloudy skies and another warm day. Everyone should get up into the low 80’s Sunday afternoon, a good 10-15 degrees above normal.

 

This warm summer-like pattern that has been a part of the weather around here over the past 7-10 days is about to change in a big way for next week. Monday will feature continued unsettled weather as a cold front will be moving through increasing rain chances. High’s Monday due to the elevated moisture and cloud cover will remain in the 70’s. But it’s Monday night where the region will begin to feel the difference. A Canadian airmass will be moving in lowering humidity drastically. Skies will clear fast on Monday night and low’s will be close to the 50 degree mark.

 

Tuesday will feature sunny conditions, low humidity and a slight northwest breeze with high’s around 70 on average. With this new airmass in place temperatures will bottom out Tuesday night in the 40’s for everyone. The weather on Tuesday will be a reality check that it is Mid October, after all…

 

The nice, cool fall-like weather will continue through the end of the 7-day forecast…

 

Have a great Saturday!

 

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, October 13th, 2017

SECTION 1: FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND

Before we get to the much-awaited pattern change in store for next week, we will have to endure a roller coaster ride of temperatures over the next three days. A moderately strong Cold-Air Damming (CAD) event will set up over the Carolinas on Friday, bringing cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, and a decent chance for some rainfall. The CAD setup will begin to weaken by the late afternoon Friday, although increased cloud cover may linger into the early hours on Saturday. The northeast winds helping to maintain the CAD event will gradually be replaced by southwest winds as time progresses throughout the day on Saturday, which will allow for clearing and warmer temperatures on Saturday. High temperatures may make a run into the 80s in the southeastern foothills; however, most areas will come up just short of 80 for the high. The southwesterly flow will be enhanced on Sunday, pulling more warm and humid air in from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of the incoming cold front. As a result, temperatures will likely reach the low 80s in most areas on Sunday, with relatively high dewpoints making conditions feel more like July than October.

SECTION 2: FALL WEATHER FANS REJOICE! NEXT WEEK'S OUTLOOK

A relatively strong cold front will progress eastward from the Great Plains across to the Eastern United States over the second half of the weekend. Impacts from the front will make their way to our area by late Sunday night into Monday morning. While the front will carry significant precipitation with it while it is off to our west, the mountains, along with unfavorable diurnal timing, will likely reduce the precipitation to light to moderate showers as it moves through Western North Carolina. The most immediate (and welcome) impact from the front will be the drying out of the atmosphere. Additionally, the front will bring some refreshing crisp air with it, keeping high temperatures restrained in the upper 60s and lower 70s and low temperatures in the 40s for most of early next week. While the air behind the front does not appear to be super cold at this moment, it will certainly be a welcome relief from the summer-like weather we have seen over the past few days. No significant weather looks to follow the cold frontal passage, so several days of comfortable sunny weather appear to be in store for our area as we head into the middle and late part of next week. A moderate warming trend may occur by the end of next week.

ECMWF Forecasted Dewpoint Temperatures for Saturday afternoon, 10/14/2017. Dark green/blue colors represent moist air, while brown colors represent dry air

ECMWF Forecasted Dewpoint Temperatures for Saturday afternoon, 10/14/2017. Dark green/blue colors represent moist air, while brown colors represent dry air

ECMWF Forecasted Dewpoint Temperatures for Tuesday afternoon, 10/17/2017. The brown colors over our area represent much drier air.

ECMWF Forecasted Dewpoint Temperatures for Tuesday afternoon, 10/17/2017. The brown colors over our area represent much drier air.

ECMWF Forecasted Low Temperatures Tuesday morning, 10/17/2017/ Most areas in WNC are in the low to mid 40s. 

ECMWF Forecasted Low Temperatures Tuesday morning, 10/17/2017/ Most areas in WNC are in the low to mid 40s. 

ECMWF Forecasted Low Temperatures Wednesday morning, 10/18/2017. Again, low temperatures in WNC will be in the low to mid 40s.

ECMWF Forecasted Low Temperatures Wednesday morning, 10/18/2017. Again, low temperatures in WNC will be in the low to mid 40s.

SECTION 3: THE LATEST FROM THE TROPICS

Hurricane Ophelia has officially become the tenth consecutive Atlantic Basin storm to reach Hurricane status in what has been an active season. Ophelia could make a rare Ireland landfall as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane early next week as it transitions from a tropical to an extratropical storm. Otherwise, conditions closer to home in the tropics are calm at the moment, with little suggestion of development in the near future.

Have a great weekend!

Chase Graham

Hurricane Nate: A look back at the impacts here in Western North Carolina

Hurricane Nate made landfall along the Gulf Coast last weekend as a Category 1 Hurricane (85 mph sustained winds), unfortunately Nate accelerated northeast from the Gulf and its remnants impacted a large portion of the Southeast US including here in the Western Carolinas with heavy rainfall, gusty winds and multiple tornadoes…here is a look back at what Nate brought to our coverage area last Sunday…

 

Nate4.JPG

 

 

The first concern we as forecasters had with Nate was in regards to heavy rainfall. Granted, our coverage area was in the midst of a dry spell. Many spots had went three or more weeks without measurable rainfall, going back to when Irma impacted us in early September. So fortunately, ground conditions were not saturated going in to Nate’s arrival but still with tropical systems there is a concern that rainfall could exceed what local creeks and streams could hold if the rainfall rates occur fast enough.

 

Computer model guidance once the storm track locked in really highlighted on a 2-4 inch rainfall in our Piedmont Counties, 3-6 inches in the Foothills with local higher amounts along the immediate Blue Ridge. For the most part, our forecast (similar to guidance) panned out pretty well. As you can see on the Foothills Skywatch Doppler rainfall estimates, the heaviest rainfall did occur along the Blue Ridge and the immediate foothills thanks to a hefty upslope flow in the order of 30-50 knots. The rainfall in those locations began on Sunday morning and got heavier as the main banding features pushed in from the south and west. Rainfall rates during the heaviest part of the storm ranged in the 2-3 inch per hour range, something that is common during tropical weather events here in the interior Southeast and SoApps Region.

 

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Thankfully, Nate’s forward speed 20-25 mph prevented flooding from being a much bigger impact with this storm. The National Weather Service did issue a couple Areal Flood Advisories for heavy rainfall late Sunday but little if any flash flooding was observed. The image below is a 2-day observed rainfall map courtesy of the National Weather Service in Greenville-Spartanburg. The data was compiled from a combination of COOP sites, CoCoRaHS and spotter reports across the Western Carolinas.

 

Nate Rainfall.jpg

 

 With everything now in hindsight Nate delivered very beneficial rainfall to the region with little in the way of damage. October can be a dry time of the year, so to have an organized tropical system deliver the amount of rain that it did will help keep ground moisture elevated here as we are in the peak of the fall season.


Along with the heavy rain potential our forecast team had concerns going in to the event about the potential of strong gradient winds and/or spin-up tornadoes. Computer model guidance a day out showed sufficient CAPE (Convective Available Potential Energy) entering into our region under a highly sheared environment. Also, our region which is known for its cold air or in-situ damming regimes during overrunning events was lacking that safety barrier with Nate making for a more volatile environment near the surface.

 

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Unfortunately, the ingredients came together for strong rotating cells or segments Sunday afternoon as Nate passed to our west. The Carolinas as a whole had as many as nine confirmed tornadoes with three of them in our coverage area…all three touchdowns came off the same convective cell that developed out ahead of the main banding feature associated with Nate’s remnants.

 

The first Tornado Warning of the day came at 2:25 pm forNorthern Rutherford and Southeast McDowell Counties…at that time Doppler Radar indicated sufficient enough rotation near Gilkey to issue the warning. That cell moved into Southern and Eastern McDowell County through 3 pm before weakening as it approached Nebo and Lake James. There was no report of damage or a tornado from that cell but that set the tone for stronger activity later in the afternoon.

 

Nate BV 228 pm.JPG

 

 

Nate BV 238 pm.JPG
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The first confirmed tornado touched down in Upper Cleveland County a couple hours later from a separate discrete cell ahead of the main feeder band. This storm showed very impressive rotation by the time it reached along NC HWY 182 between Polkville and Lawndale.  The National Weather Service issued the Warning for Northern Sections of the county along with Southeast Burke prior to 5 pm.

 According to NWS survey, the tornado was classified as an EF-0 with estimated 80 mph winds. The storm remained on the ground from near Polkville to the Ramsey Community in Burke County along the South Mountains…the tornado damaged a few structures along the path and uprooted trees in the rural portion of the county.

 

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A few minutes prior to the initial touchdown that cell moved over the Cleveland County Fairgrounds, which was hosting the annual Cleveland County Fair at the time. While not a tornado at that point, the storm was a very impressive meso-scale system (rotating thunderstorm) just off the surface, a usual precursor to a tornado.

 

Nate.JPG

The tornado associated with this supercell briefly lifted as it was crossing the South Mountains, however once the storm made it across the ridges in Southern Burke, the low level spin needed quickly came back to together. At approximately 5:35 pm, a second tornado touched down in Southern Burke County between Long Mountain and Hildebran Mountain, moving to the North-Northeast.

 

This tornado stayed on the ground for just under 5 miles, survey crews yesterday determined this tornado had maximum winds of around 95 mph giving it EF-1 status.

The tornado initially snapped or uprooted multiple trees and numerous limbs and caused minor roof and gutter damage to a home offMineral Springs Mountain Rd. The tornado moved north/northeast from there through a heavily wooded area, but presumably remained on the ground before moving across Cub Creek St just offMineral Springs Mountain Rd. The tornado continued reaching the Connelly Springs area before lifting a second time.

 

Doppler Radar at this timeframe continued to show an impressive couplet signature across Eastern Burke County crossing over Interstate 40…

 

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The final confirmed tornado occurred near Hudson in Southern Caldwell County at approximately 6 pm…

 

This tornado, third and strongest in a series of tornadoes associated with the same supercell thunderstorm, touched down in Hudson near the intersection of Hwy 321 and Mt Herman Rd. A large truck was overturned at this location. The tornado moved north/northeast, initially paralleling Mt Vernon Rd. Numerous trees were uprooted and snapped, with one large tree falling on and causing significant damage to a home. One tractor-trailer was also pushed over on its side in a restaurant parking lot along US 321 near Hudson. The NWS states in their survey that the tornado continued to move North-Northeast through the county eventually crossing Hibriten Mountain then re-emerging and ending in the Cedar Rock Community about 10 minutes later.

 

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With the damage that was done to property along its path, there are no reported fatalities and only one injury directly related to the storm. We feel that is a testament to all who heed the warnings and vital information that Foothills Weather Network  along with the folks at the National Weather Service distribute to the public.  Our thoughts and prayers go out to those who were impacted by the dangerous weather that rolled through on Sunday. This outbreak of tornadoes is also very historic in that Sunday made the first time in modern record keeping that a confirmed tornado hit Burke, Caldwell and Cleveland Counties in the month of October.

 

As we wrap up this summary, check out the image gallery here below for some of the pics taken by our team of Meteorologists who were in the field surveying the storm damage on Tuesday in Burke County. Also below are links to the pull reports submitted by National Weather Service..

 

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201710111451-KGSP-NOUS42-PNSGSP

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201710111652-KGSP-NOUS42-PNSGSP

https://nwschat.weather.gov/p.php?pid=201710111755-KGSP-NOUS42-PNSGSP

 

 

 

 

 

 

Wednesday Weather Discussion: Stagnant weather pattern continues; Warm temperatures and high humidity.

Good Wednesday to everyone across the region…a very abnormally warm and humid weather pattern continues today.

 

When you head out the door for the morning commute be on the lookout for patchy fog due to the abundant moisture in place. Once the fog breaks we’ll see a mix of sun and clouds. A few stray showers are possible as well but it should be less coverage than we saw Tuesday afternoon. Temperatures again will be well above normal (80’s).

 

On Thursday a frontal boundary will approach the Carolinas, it may results in additional shower coverage with continued warm and muggy conditions in the 80’s. The front will pass on Thursday evening and southerly winds will veer around to the northeast.

 

That wind shift will have a big influence in the Friday weather picture. We may see a lot more in the way of clouds to end the work week and more importantly a cooler temperature grid. Some of the guidance that we used has indicated a minimal temperature change on Friday due to clouds and some mist/drizzle…right now we’re leaning toward low/mid 70’s but those numbers may have to be trimmed even further if guidance continues its trend.

 

Saturday and Sunday right now looks to be pretty nice region-wide with temperatures rebounding back close to the 80 degree mark under partly cloudy skies. It’s still on the humid side but it should remain dry for the most part. Once we get to the end of the weekend, another frontal boundary will be crossing the Mississippi River and heading toward the Eastern US…it’s this front could finally end this prolonged warm spell next week.

 

Have a great Wednesday!

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Hurricane Nate continues to move toward the Gulf Coast, likely to impact the region after landfall

Good Saturday morning…

 

We are monitoring the latest on Hurricane Nate as it moves quickly northward toward the Gulf Coast. Last night the storm as it crossed the Yucatan quickly developed into the ninth hurricane of the 2017 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 

Nate as of this morning has winds of 85 mph. It is located about 240 miles south of the Mouth of the Mississippi River and it quickly moving NNW at 22 mph.

 

Nate is a lopsided storm in that most of the strongest winds are east of the center, that partly a result of the forward motion.

 

Nate will make landfall somewhere between New Orleans and Mobile this evening and will quickly move north and northeast through the Southeast US.

 

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The forecast track for Nate takes it through Alabama on the day Sunday and into Southeast Tennessee by Sunday night. This track puts our region on the storm’s eastern half, which means that the potential for locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are there.

 

Fortunately, the track looks to be just far enough west to prevent the core of it from impacting the entire forecast area. At this time the heaviest rain and wind potential looks to be in our western counties of Burke, McDowell and Rutherford and then a fairly sharp gradient in the impacts as you go east.

 

At this time rainfall totals could be in the 2-4 inch range east of the mountains with 4-6 right along the Blue Ridge. The latest WPC forecast precipitation seems to line up pretty well with our current thinking. The fast movement of Nate will limit rainfall amounts. Showers could actually begin as soon as late today due to the developing southeast flow banking up against the escarpment. The heaviest of the rain should peak late Sunday.

 

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Also, gusty winds are expected with Nate as it passes by on Sunday. In our eastern tier counties, winds could gust from the south and southeast in the 20-30 mph range with increasing wind speeds as you get closer to the Blue Ridge. Some wind gusts along the higher terrain of Burke, McDowell and Rutherford Counties may exceed 40 mph. That kind of wind energy could down some trees and power lines…scattered outages may occur.

 

We will have further updates on Nate through the next 24-36 hours as he makes landfall along the Gulf Coast and then quickly moves inland through the Southeast.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, October 6th, 2017

RETURNING TO THE TROPICS: NATE'S IMPACT ON THE CAROLINAS

After a week of relative quiet in the tropics, things have turned active once again with the formation of Tropical Storm Nate. The current forecast track takes Nate over the Yucatan Peninsula today and into the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday Morning. Once Nate reaches the Gulf, moderate intensification is expected to occur, and Nate could be the third hurricane to hit the Mainland United States this season. At this time, there is still a little bit of model uncertainty as to the exact track of Nate; however, it is almost certain that a Southeastern United States landfall will occur some time Saturday Night or Sunday Morning.

18 UTC 10/5/2017 GEFS Track Probability estimates. Red and orange colors represent higher probabilities of the track moving over the area. This has an E. Louisiana landfall. 

18 UTC 10/5/2017 GEFS Track Probability estimates. Red and orange colors represent higher probabilities of the track moving over the area. This has an E. Louisiana landfall. 

12 UTC 10/5/2017 European Ensemble Track Probability estimates. Red and orange colors represent a higher probability of the track moving over the area. While this also has an E. Louisiana landfall, the storm does not track as much to the east after making landfall.

12 UTC 10/5/2017 European Ensemble Track Probability estimates. Red and orange colors represent a higher probability of the track moving over the area. While this also has an E. Louisiana landfall, the storm does not track as much to the east after making landfall.

National Hurricane Center Track 06 UTC 10/6/2017

National Hurricane Center Track 06 UTC 10/6/2017

 

Although it is unlikely that wind or severe weather will be of significant concern for our area, the remnants of Nate could bring some beneficial rain to our area. The track will be crucial to determining exactly how much rainfall we see. If the track shifts further west than the current track, we could see less precipitation overall. However, if we see an eastward shift in the track, more precipitation could be in store for our area. Right now, it looks like the rain will begin on Saturday in the form of widely-scattered showers. Fortunately, it does not look like Saturday will be a complete washout at this time. The same cannot be said for Sunday, as rain should overspread the area for most of the day. As the center of the storm passes to our east Monday, we could see the bulk of the precipitation as long as the center of the storm remains relatively close to Western North Carolina. All in all, the best precipitation estimates would be for 1 inch in the southeastern corner of our area up to 3 inches in the west and northwestern parts of the area.

 

12 UTC 10/5/2017 European Model Precipitation Forecasts for Nate. This model generally forecasts 1-3" for our area.

12 UTC 10/5/2017 European Model Precipitation Forecasts for Nate. This model generally forecasts 1-3" for our area.

00 UTC 10/6/2017 GFS Model Precipitation Forecasts for Nate. This model generally forecasts 2-4" for our area.

00 UTC 10/6/2017 GFS Model Precipitation Forecasts for Nate. This model generally forecasts 2-4" for our area.

After Nate moves through the area, some residual moisture may linger in our area into the middle of the week. Temperatures should also rebound as we head into the middle of next week.

Thanks for reading!

-Chase Scott Graham

25 Days and Counting

Good Thursday everyone! 

The weather has been very tranquil around the area for the past few weeks. It has felt like fall with the cool mornings and dry days. The afternoon temperatures have been more summer like with highs in the 80's.  No measurable rain has fallen over the area going on three weeks. That has lead to dry conditions over a good portion of the area.

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We will continue that trend for Today and Friday. But changes are coming. 

As of 8 am this morning Tropical Depression 16 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate.  Here is the 8 am Advisory on Nate. 

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So the question for us is in Western North Carolina is, what will we feel from Nate. 

The answer is... Rain! Finally after what will be 27 days with out rain, we will finally see rain develop over the foothills Sunday morning and that will spread into the Western Piedmont by Sunday evening. 

Their is still some disagreement in the models on where Nate will go, and how strong Nate will get. A few things that play into that will be how strong the Atlantic Ridge (High Pressure) will be, how far does west does it push Nate. Also before Nate moves into the area, their is another tropical wave that is affecting South Florida. That open wave will also help steer Nate west, but how far is not know yet.

By Sunday morning we will begin to have a southerly flow from the Atlantic Ridge as well as the counter clockwise flow from Nate. That will send an abundance of moisture into the area. That will spread as Nate continues to move towards the landfall somewhere from Central Louisianan and Florida.   

Since the eventual track of Nate is not know yet, we can only go off of the National Hurricane Center track as well as the different model runs. Most of them take Nate just west of the Appalachians through East Tennessee.  That will put us on the Right Front quadrant of the left over circulation of Nate. Monday into Tuesday we will see heavy rain, gusty winds, and we will have to watch the tornado potential. 

Since we have been so dry recently. The concern is their for flooding but, not a major concern.It looks like a general 2-4" of rain will be possible through Tuesday based off the current thinking. That will likely change until this weekend. 

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For now enjoy the sunny weather! 

Scotty Powell 

Meteorologist 

Twitter: @ScottyPowell_WX 

Tropical Depression #16 forms, likely to impact Yucatan and Gulf Coast through the weekend. Could impact the Southeast as well...

Good Wednesday afternoon, we are reaching a secondary peak in the hurricane season here in the Atlantic basin in October and our newest tropical system has formed today in the Southwest Caribbean.

 

Tropical Depression #16 was classified late this morning by the National Hurricane Center, it is located near the coastline of Nicaragua moving slowly to the northwest. As you can see on the visible satellite image that TD-16 has a nice concentration of convection along with a solid outflow presentation. The one thing keeping it from organizing any quicker is the fairly proximity to land. That will be a big key in TD 16’s strength over the next 24-48 hours, just how close to land does it stay in its movement.


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As you can see on the image posted the water temperatures in the Western Carribean and into the Gulf of Mexico are quite warm and conducive for intensification over the next few days. If this system becomes a tropical storm it will be named Nate…that could happen soon.


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The official National Hurricane Center forecast track has TD 16 moving northwest and northward over the next 3-5 days making it a threat to the Yucatan Peninsula, the Gulf Coast Region and ultimately parts of the Southeast US.

The model spread for this system at this point is not all that wide. There seems to be a good consensus on the next 24-36 hours, then it begins to spread out as you can see here on this plot of the hurricane models. Anyone from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle should begin to take those first steps for an impact by a Hurricane late this weekend.

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The global models that we look at daily also generally fall within this spread. For example the GFS (American) model falls in the western edge of this spread indicating a threat more to Louisiana while the European is further east along the Florida Panhandle. These forecast tracks will change as the storm becomes more defined at the surface.

 

So, what could be the impacts of future Nate to our area?...

 

Well, we are becoming fairly confident that the Southeast will see an increase of moisture as a trough in the middle of the country will help scoop up the moisture from this system. The details in regards to amounts are way too early to predict but we should begin to see our first bout of rain in over three weeks come late this weekend. This could be a very beneficial rainfall but as can be the case with tropical weather events the rainfall can also be a bit more than bargained for.

 

As we get closer to the weekend, our weather team will have much on the impacts and the extent of them across the region. Keep an eye here at our website and on social media for additional updates

Wednesday Weather Discussion: Pleasant weather continues for mid-week, changes possible by the weekend.

Good Wednesday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont. A dry weather pattern continues across the Western Carolinas and the rest of the Interior Southeast US for here in the short term.

 

The region should see plenty of sunshine for your hump-day with temperatures getting up into the upper 70’s on average. There will be a few afternoon puffy clouds but nothing to worry about. The fair weather continues for tonight and again on Thursday with a few low 80’s starting to appear on the weather map.

 

Once we get to Friday and the upcoming weekend some changes in the weather pattern look to be in store for the southeast. Strong ridging that has been in place for the past several days begins to break down, also a fairly strong trough and upper low in the middle part of the country will advance east. This will allow southerly flow to develop aloft and southeast flow at the surface.

 

The net result for Friday and Saturday are warmer temperatures and slightly increasing humidity levels, making it once again feel like late summer rather than early autumn. High’s on both afternoons will be in the lower to mid 80’s with partly cloudy skies. Night time temperatures will hover in the upper 50’s.

 

One of the big wild cards for the second half of the weekend involves some potential tropical activity in the Northwest Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. First off a weak surface low, likely non-tropical will be situated along the Northern Gulf Coast Region on Sunday with a stronger, tropical system possibly sitting in the Southern Gulf of Mexico at the same time.

 

The National Hurricane Center has placed the Gulf in high risk of tropical development through the end of the weekend, an invest 90L has also been designated for some disturbed weather in the Caribbean. Hurricane models are now running on this feature and they along with the global model suite suggests a gradual northward movement through the weekend.


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As far as the impacts on the Southeast, its way to early to detail anything…but trends are leaning toward some moisture increasing across the region by Sunday as the Midwest trough and ridging off the East Coast will begin to pull up whatever may form.

 

We have put rain chances in the forecast for Sunday and Monday of next week…that is still a highly variable forecast at this time. Stay with us as we get closer to the weekend.

 

The region has been dry over the past three weeks or so…the last significant rainfall came back in early September with the remnants of Irma.

 

Have a great day!

 

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Monday October 2, 2017 Weather Discussion

Good Afternoon and I hope your work week is off to a great start. 

It was a chilly morning as we started off in the 40s to low 50s. Temps today will climb up to around 70° with clear skies. There will be a light breeze out there as high pressure over the Eastern Great Lakes Region ridges down the east slope of the Blue Ridge. Aloft some moisture will stream in and areas immediately east of the mountains could see a layer of cirrus clouds develop later. That would set up a perfect fiery sunset for the photographers out there.   For the near term the weather is going to remain calm and tranquil with high pressure firmly in place centering over our area by Friday. Temps will start to clime a degree or two each day and will return to normal values for this time of year on Tuesday. By late week temps will rise to a degree or two above normal.

It has been over 17 days now since a widespread rainfall affected our area.  We will add atleast another 4-5 days to that number with the aforementioned high pressure placement. That seems likely to change starting Saturday however. The ridge of high pressure starts to break down Saturday. The our eyes will watch what takes place in The Gulf of Mexico. Models continue to indicate some type of low pressure in the Northern Gulf and then that moisture races North in Sunday. Confidence continue he’s to grow that the pattern will become unsettled during the last weekend and into next week. There is a widespread range of error as to the amount of moisture that moves into the area and the timing of its arrival. Today we take from this that the dry pattern in place now likely will not last but instead change into a damper more unsettled pattern going into next week. 

 

Christopher White

Cheif Meteorologist

CLIMATE DISCUSSION: SUNDAY, OCTOBER 1ST, 2017

For the first day of the new month, and with almost no high-impact weather on the horizon, we'll take a look at a longer-term outlook for the month of October. As far as the immediate weather is concerned, mild and clear conditions will continue throughout the remainder of the weekend and into the beginning of next week, with a gradual warming trend in store for our area throughout the upcoming week. The tropics have quieted considerably over the past 48 hours, and new development is unlikely in the immediate future.

Before I begin, I'll provide this discretionary statement: long-term climate outlooks are not "definitive forecasts". They are simply measures to tell what kind of temperatures and precipitation amounts are the most likely for the period in question. With that being said, let's examine what the Climate Prediction Center says may be in store for the month of October.

SECTION 1: TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK: A PROLONGED SUMMER?

 

Climate Prediction Center Temperature Probability Outlook for October 2017. Warmer than normal temperatures are indicated in the orange shading, while cooler than normal temperatures are indicated in the blue shading.

Climate Prediction Center Temperature Probability Outlook for October 2017. Warmer than normal temperatures are indicated in the orange shading, while cooler than normal temperatures are indicated in the blue shading.

If you are ready for cooler weather, you may have to wait for a while. The CPC Temperature Outlook shows a 50% chance of above-normal temperatures for the month of October (compared to a 50% chance of at-normal or below-normal temperatures combined). The most likely explanation for a temperature outlook would be a pattern like we are going to see this upcoming week, where we have a digging trough in the western United States combined with a high-amplitude ridge in the eastern United States. This will allow a warm southwesterly flow to be the predominant pattern for the month. However, the most profound effects of this high-amplitude East Coast ridge will be felt in the Northeastern United States, where unseasonably warm temperatures have already been felt in the area over the past week. In summary, you may yet need to hold onto those shorts and t-shirts for a few more weeks.

SECTION 2: PRECIPITATION: AN EMERGING DROUGHT POSSIBLY ON THE HORIZON

Climate Prediction Center Precipitation Probability Outlook for October 2017. Drier than normal conditions are indicated by the brown shading while wetter than normal conditions are indicated by the green shading.

Climate Prediction Center Precipitation Probability Outlook for October 2017. Drier than normal conditions are indicated by the brown shading while wetter than normal conditions are indicated by the green shading.

As of October 1st, most of the state of North Carolina is not under any drought classification, with only abnormally dry conditions being reported in Central North Carolina. However, things may change as October will likely be a drier than normal month throughout the region. The Climate Prediction Center forecast suggests that there is a nearly 50% chance that our area will see drier than normal conditions (compared to a 50% chance that we will see either near-normal or wetter-than-normal conditions). This would also be the likely result of a pattern similar to the one that will setup over the Northern Hemisphere over the next week. With a ridge of high pressure occupying the space over the Southeastern and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States, any mid-latitude weather systems would most likely follow a path through the central United States up through the Great Lakes and into Southeast Canada, missing us well to the north. Any substantial precipitation (if this pattern holds) would have to come from tropical-type precipitation, which would also be suppressed with a blocking ridge over the Eastern United States. Regardless of whether this comes to fruition or not, PLEASE be careful if you are doing any outdoor burning in the foreseeable future. We do not need a repeat of last year's wildfire season to occur!

Thank you for reading

Chase Scott Graham 

Forecast Discussion: Saturday, September 30th, 2017

SECTION 1: A QUICK LOOK AT THE TROPICS

Tropical Storm Maria and Tropical Storm Lee are accelerating through the Northern Atlantic Ocean away from North America and will either dissipate or become extratropical by tomorrow evening. There are also a couple of minor disturbances forming in the Gulf Of Mexico and the Caribbean; however, none of these are expected to develop quickly, if at all.

SECTION 2: A TASTE OF FALL THIS WEEKEND

A reinforcing shot of cold air will move into the Carolinas on Saturday, but the full effects of this secondary cold front will not be felt in our area until Sunday. Regardless, northerly and northeasterly flow will allow for mild and dry conditions this weekend, allowing us to feel our first true taste of fall. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be the most noticeable change this weekend, as many areas will see temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40s at daybreak. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid-70s across the area, while high temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 60s (higher elevations) and lower 70s (lower elevations). In total, it should be a great weekend weather-wise.

NAM-3km temperatures at 7 a.m. Sunday Morning. Courtesy: tropicaltidbits.com

NAM-3km temperatures at 7 a.m. Sunday Morning. Courtesy: tropicaltidbits.com

 

SECTION 3: NEXT WEEK'S OUTLOOK

Unfortunately, despite a reasonably wet summer, drought conditions are beginning to return across Western North Carolina. Additionally, it looks like drought conditions will persist and intensify as low humidity and rain chances are in the forecast for the foreseeable future. This will be due to a fairly constant upper level pattern which will send storms northeast through the central United States and the upper Midwest instead of allowing them to come into the Southeastern United States. There is a possibility that the dominant pattern may change late next week; however, a lot will change between now and then.

500-mb Heights and Winds. This illustrates the reasoning for clear conditions next week. Source: pivotalweather.com

500-mb Heights and Winds. This illustrates the reasoning for clear conditions next week. Source: pivotalweather.com

 Temperatures next week should slowly increase as we approach the end of the week, with surface winds shifting from a cool northeasterly to a warm southwesterly flow. Highs will be in the low 70s at the beginning of the week, warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s by the end of the week. Lows will be in the 50s.

Have a great Saturday!

Chase Scott Graham

Friday Weather Discussion: Colder air has arrived...but for how long?

Good Friday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont, the weekend is here and we have a big change in the weather pattern.

 

First off, in the tropics…both Maria and Lee began to accelerate eastward yesterday and is now in the middle of the Atlantic and is going to get incorporated into the mid latitude jet stream this weekend. Good riddance to Maria as its legacy is unfortunately still being written out across parts of the Caribbean.

 

Back to the local weather, a frontal passage yesterday has ended quite an impressive string of very warm weather. There were widespread 90’s across the Southeast US yesterday which is 10-15 degrees above late September values. Low 90’s prevailed in a few foothill spots and most Western Piedmont locations.

 

Today will be much different as winds are veering around to the northeast bringing colder air in. Temperatures will struggle to rise as we may see variable cloudiness, most spots will get up into the upper 70’s by late day. With the lower humidity in place it should allow for pleasant weather tonight for your local high school football games. Temps will quickly fall into the 60’s after sunset and into the 50’s by first thing Saturday morning.

 

 

A secondary push of cold air will come down through the day on Saturday, that combined with a weak tropical low off the Florida Coastline will result in a solid northeast breeze during the day. This airmass will result in temperatures in the lower 70’s for both Saturday and Sunday afternoons with cool night time values in the upper 40’s (Foothills) to around 50 (Piedmont) on Sunday and Monday mornings.

 

For our folks in the mountains they’ll see 60’s and low 40’s on these days…that will accelerate the fall colors above 3000 ft.

 

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As we go into the early part of next week, continued northeast flow will keep the weather on the cool side. Daytime temperatures will be in the lower 70’s through Tuesday with periods in which clouds may increase. Night time low’s won’t be as chilly, 50’s for everyone. By mid week the surface flow will begin to veer back around to the southeast meaning warmer conditions for the second half of the week.

 

Have a great Friday!

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Fall Returns This Weekend, Then Back To Summer

Happy Thursday everyone!

Even though the calendar says it's fall, our weather has felt more like mid summer. We have been stuck under a pretty strong ridge that has kept the temperatures pretty warm and the rain to a minimum.  It has now been 15 days since we have seen measurable rainfall in the area and it looks like the next 7-10 days will be fairly dry as well. 

GFS Ensemble Run

GFS Ensemble Run

The GFS model is show fairly dry conditions for the next 10 days. The chart above shows us each ensemble. Most of the ensembles remain dry through October 13th, a few are showing some rainfall amounts over an inch, but those are only a few, so we call them outliers. 

Euro Ensemble Run 

Euro Ensemble Run 

The European model which has 52 different ensembles shows a more bleak look for rainfall. Several show no rain at all, while the majority shows 1/10th -2/10th of an inch of rain.  So it looks like the dry period will continue. 

So we see the rainfall is going to remain fairly bleak.. How do the temperatures look for the next few weeks? Well the answer to that may not be liked by those who are wanting cooler weather. After a dry cold front moves through today and another shot of cooler air Friday nights we will see cool temps this weekend. Highs will be in the low to mid 70's with lows in the upper 40's to low 50's. 

Next week those temperatures start to rise. I don't think that we will see the 90's come back, but the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted 50%-70% above normal temperatures for the area over the next two weeks (Ending October 11th.) 

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The only way I think we break this warm and dry period is for something to develop in the Tropics and move into our area. Right now their isn't much going on in the tropics. Tropical Storm Maria continues to move out to see. Hurricane Lee remains out to sea and will not threaten land. 

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Their is one disturbance near Cuba that wants to try and develop into something Tropical as it treks north towards Florida. Right now it looks to remain very weak, and really shouldn't have much of an impact on our weather locally. 

Have a great day!

Scotty Powell

Meteorologist

Twitter: @ScottyPowell_WX