Saturday Weather Briefing: Active weather continues...

Good Saturday afternoon to everyone…and incase you haven’t noticed over the past several days the Western Carolinas have been locked in to a wet weather pattern thanks to the combination of high pressure out in the Western Atlantic and an upper low/trough that has sat around the Southeast US. This has resulted in a deep southerly fetch gathering Gulf, Atlantic and Carribean moisture sending it up the US East Coast…this afternoon’s water vapor image clearly shows the deep moisture tap. That along with daytime heating and upslope flow has resulted in heavy rainfall…

 

110.PNG

 

 

 

As we look out into the future we do not see a drastic shift in the weather pattern across the Southeast US. The deep moisture tap has temporarily shifted east toward the Eastern Carolinas but plenty of low level moisture remains in place, so storm chances are going to remain in the forecast through the next 7-Days…

 

Models have come to a conclusion that another weak upper low or surface low will move northward from Florida on Monday and into the Interior Southeast. This looks to be a weaker version of what has just occurred but it serves to keep things unsettled during the afternoon. With plenty of moisture content in place afternoon storms will remain scattered through the early week.

 

115.PNG
116.PNG

 

 

 

By mid week the region may see a relaxation of storm chances due to a lack of good upper level support. Any storm activation may have to come from differential heating along the higher terrain. With that happening, a return to warmth will occur as temps by mid week will return to the mid/upper 80’s in the afternoon with 60’s at night under muggy conditions.

 

119.PNG

 

 

118.PNG

 

 

Once we get to next weekend, which is Memorial Day Weekend,  attention will likely have to be drawn again to the south again for another tropical connection with increased moisture first in Florida and then moving north into sections of the Southeast just in time for the holiday. Its way too early for details but our team will definitely keep an eye on it and will provide more info once we get into the first part of the upcoming week. Stay tuned!

 

 Possible tropical feature next weekend? Deep moisture surges north again...

Possible tropical feature next weekend? Deep moisture surges north again...

 

 

Here’s a look at WPC precip forecast through next Friday…needless to say the Western Carolinas remain active through the forecast period…

 

 WPC Precip Forecast (Through Friday)

WPC Precip Forecast (Through Friday)

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

 

Saturday Futurecast: Wet pattern continues but signs of improvement...

Good Saturday morning…this week has been very active across the Western Carolinas as an upper low pressure has transported deep tropical moisture up from the Caribbean up the entire East Coast of the US. The result here locally has been a widespread soaking rainfall for everyone but for some along the Blue Ridge the rain has been excessive. Rainfall amounts from portions of NW Rutherford County up to Northern Caldwell County has been generally in the 4-8 inch range with localized spots of 10+ inches.

 

The main culprit of this rain event is finally moving north of the region as the upper low is situated across Kentucky this morning and will move into the Central Appalachians by tonight…this will finally shunt the deepest moisture content off to the east, however there is still enough moisture in place for periods of light rain/drizzle and by afternoon some more convective showers…


814.PNG

 

 

 

FUTURECAST

 

10 am

815.PNG

 

1 pm

816.PNG

 

 

4 pm

818.PNG

 

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979
Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

 

 

Wednesday evening Futurecast: Wet weather continues...

A very tropical airmass is overhead the region thanks to the combination of weak low pressure along the Gulf Coast and a strong ridge of high pressure in the Western Atlantic. Abundant moisture will remain in place through the next several days leading to shower and thunderstorm activity from time to time…so far the heaviest rainfall amounts have been located along the Blue Ridge with 2-5 inch rainfall totals recorded over the past 24 hours.

 

 Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates

Doppler Radar Rainfall Estimates

 

 

 

FUTURECAST

 

7 pm

441.PNG

 

10 pm

442.PNG

 

 

1 am (Thursday)

443.PNG

 

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979
Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

 

Wednesday Futurecast: Have the umbrella and slickers ready...

The combination of a strong high pressure in the Western Atlantic and a slow moving upper low in the Northeast Gulf of Mexico will funnel abundant tropical moisture into the region today…showers and thunderstorms are possible at any time during the day but the heaviest precip is most likely in the afternoon hours.

 

FUTURECAST

 

 

8 am

1024.PNG

 

Noon

1025.PNG

 

4 pm

1026.PNG

 

 

 

Early wakeup call from the tropics: Development possible in Eastern Gulf of Mexico this week

Good Sunday evening…the calendar says May 13th but the are looking ahead of schedule as the tropics may be waking up just ahead of the June 1st start to the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 

The National Hurricane Center has issued an outlook on disturbance located in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This is currently associated with an upper low pressure but it could eventually work its way down to the surface. The National Hurricane Center has officially given this area a 40% chance at development over the next five days. As you can see on the current water vapor image it is very disorganized…however the moisture content has delivered a rainy Sunday to a lot of the Florida Peninsula.

 

702.PNG
703.PNG

 

If we do see development from this feature early next week the likely movement will be north and northwest toward the Eastern or Central Gulf Coast Region. Computer model ensembles seem to have a solid handle on this feature. None of these members have this low intensifying to great intensity but a good number of them does have a surface reflection that will move north and into the Gulf Coast Region by the middle part of the week.

 

701.PNG

 

 

Regardless of the strength of this feature, the same general impacts will be felt and that is the possibility of enhanced rainfall initially in Florida and along the Gulf Coast but eventually the tropical airmass will spread into the Interior Southeast including the Western Carolinas. Recent weather has been dry across our region so this rainfall will be beneficial, however the further we go along this setup could turn into too much of a good thing…

 

Rain chances locally look to be going up starting on Tuesday and lasting through the end of the week…

 

704.PNG

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979
Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

The Week Ahead: Wet n' Wild! (May 14-May 20)

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation!

You might have seen some of the posts we've made this week about a pattern that is digging it's heels into the region, but in case you missed it here is a brief summary:

An airmass that is brimming with moisture and warmth has began to make it's presence known this past weekend and will continue to build over the region. While it certainly isn't a tropical depression yet it is completely fair to see that we do have a probability in one within the next 2-5 days. Here's the latest map generated by the NHC.

 If this does come into fruition this won't be much more than a tropical storm at absolute best, but it is jumping the gun on hurricane season which technically doesn't start until June 1st. This has been a relatively common occurrence in the couple of years. Expect to see updates from us on this potential storm. 

Near term (Today and Monday)

It's a hot one out there today with an abundance of moisture and sun without much wind to relieve us. Diurnal highs for today and tomorrow are right around 90 degrees, partly cloudy conditions, mildly low probability (20%) of precipitation. Synoptically speaking North Carolina will not be experiencing any upper atmospheric weather shifts (ie no frontal passages, no troughs, no ridges) for the next week. What this means is that any storms that pop up will be driven mainly via diurnal convection. For today and tomorrow our convective capabilities are slightly stifled as subsidence and warm air aloft negates probabilities. Diurnal convection functions best when adequate moisture and vertical lift can occur, so subsidence is our saving grace. Diurnal lows for tonight and Monday night will be relatively warm in the mid 60's. 

Short term forecast (Tuesday-Friday)

Subsidence subsides and it will be as if someone turned on the summer time storm machine. Tuesday through Friday we see strong precipitation probabilities of 50-80% chance of rain and thunderstorms. Probability for severe weather at this time will depend on the storm cell in question, but it would be fair to find yourself and your property prepared for a couple of severe events this week.

day3otlk_0730.gif

The above graphic is our convective outlook for 3 days out (Tuesday) which shows the greatest threat being thunderstorms for the region. This has opportunity and time to develop and we will be monitoring conditions closely to keep you mentally prepared for the stormy days ahead.

Diurnal highs for our work week will be a little less hot as we see temperatures snuggle closer to the 80 degree mark instead of the 90ish degrees we've felt recently. Winds will be mild to moderate with of course some localized gusts with each thunderstorm. Cloud to ground lightning is a strong threat so please exercise caution whether you get caught outside, find yourself under an awning or even inside your own home. Being struck by lightning is deadly. Nights during this time will likely start off stormy with little dips in convective probability into the hours beyond midnight, but with the excess heat and moisture it's possible for it to rain through the night. Expect nightly lows to maintain being in the mid 60s.

Long term (Saturday, Sunday, and beyond?)

There doesn't seem to be any differentiation with the work week and the following weekend so batten down the hatches because it will be an eventful weekend. Precipitation probabilities in the 60-70% range, possibility of thunderstorms, daily highs hovering around 80, nightly lows in the mid 60s, south-southwesterly flow. 

So where does this leave us? How long do we expect this pattern to persist? 

This particular blocking weather pattern is a classic summer-y pattern that the longer it settles in the more that needs to happen to help chip away at it's foundation. For right now we can see that it will stay for a week, and the GFS does suggest a hiccup in the pattern late May, but with that being so far out we can likely see this pattern persist without pause straight into June. It's starting to look like summer in NC!

Thanks for reading. Keep checking in with us daily for updates!

Sinead Lockhart

Moisture laden weather pattern progged to impact the Southeast US next week...

We have had scattered thunderstorms on multiple days this week due to the warm air and moisture in place…a summer time pattern has established itself and if nothing else the wet weather is expected to increase in scope as we go into next week.

 

Deep tropical moisture is currently building up in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and is impacting the state of Florida this weekend, this is the result of an upper low and weak surface low that is working in tandem. This low pressure is not tropical in nature but it has a tropical airmass to work with allowing numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop daily near and east of the low track.


1101.PNG

 

This tropical moisture will eventually start to advect northward and affect the Southeast US going into next week. Also with high pressure located off the East Coast of the US, the two are assisting each other to provide a stout fetch from the south and southeast. An upper low will drift to up along the Gulf Coast by Tuesday and only very slowly weaken and lift into the Interior Southeast US by the end of next week.

 

1102.PNG
1103.PNG

 

The end result for our weather pattern in the Western Carolinas will be more clouds and good chances of showers and thunderstorms, not only during peak heating but also with potential nocturnal activity. High precipitable water values will enter the region and there could also be an upslope component at times focusing moisture in certain parts of the coverage area.

 

Rainfall amounts by next weekend look to be pretty sufficient region-wide. Some locations over a multi-day period could see 3 or more inches of rain by next weekend.


1104.PNG

 

 

This weather pattern may try to lock itself in, even past the current 7-day forecast period as computer model ensembles continue to show a weak trough along the Gulf and Southeast US with continued Bermuda Ridging…

 

1105.PNG

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979
Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

 

Weather Discussion: Saturday, May 12th, 2018

A look at the Ensembles: Hot, then Milder; Wet Weather Coming Next Week

Here is a look at what the European Ensembles are showing for Temperature over the next ten days. Ensembles are simply forecast models that are tweaked slightly to account for all possible scenarios. The temperatures below are the average of nearly 50 iterations of the same model for Morganton, Lincolnton, and Rutherfordton. Notice how the highest temperatures will occur this weekend, with conditions cooling early next week and remaining much milder for the rest of the upcoming period.

 European Ensemble Average High/Low Temperature for Morganton

European Ensemble Average High/Low Temperature for Morganton

 European Ensemble Average High/Low Temperature for Lincolnton

European Ensemble Average High/Low Temperature for Lincolnton

 European Ensemble Average High/Low Temperature for Rutherfordton

European Ensemble Average High/Low Temperature for Rutherfordton

As far as precipitation is concerned, things look dry over the next two to three days, but rain chances step up by Tuesday. Most ensemble members suggest that we will see at least one inch of rain in all areas by next weekend, with the average of all ensemble being around two inches over the next seven days. In short, it looks wet over our area for the next week.

 European Ensembles for Precipitation for Morganton.

European Ensembles for Precipitation for Morganton.

 European Ensembles for Precipitation for Lincolnton

European Ensembles for Precipitation for Lincolnton

 European Ensembles for Precipitation for Rutherfordton

European Ensembles for Precipitation for Rutherfordton

Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham

Friday Weather Briefing: The return of the 90's!

Good Friday morning…the weather is going retro in its own special way starting this weekend. Because the nineties are returning!

 

Warm southwest flow is re-establishing itself across the region starting today and it will really take hold through the Mother’s Day Weekend. That combined with increasing moisture content is going to really turn up the heat, so to speak providing a toasty weekend for the Western Carolinas.

 

This will also mean a reduced chance at showers for the entire weekend, we still expect the heat and humidity combined with the high terrain to yield a stray shower but it will be few and far between.

 

High’s today will be in the upper 80’s on average under partly cloudy skies. Saturday expect most everyone to reach the 90-degree mark and for Mother’s Day itself, low 90’s with humid conditions, it might be one of those years in which to celebrate with mom indoors in a cooler environment.


 Computer Model Projected High Temperatures (Saturday)

Computer Model Projected High Temperatures (Saturday)

 Computer Model Projected High Temperatures (Sunday)

Computer Model Projected High Temperatures (Sunday)

 

 

Again, with no definitive focus for thunderstorm activity expect little in the way of rainfall through the weekend. Any shower/storm will have to develop thanks in part to differential heating along the higher terrain of the Southern Appalachians.

 

 WPC Projected Precipitation (Through Sunday Evening)

WPC Projected Precipitation (Through Sunday Evening)

 

As we go into next week the heat will continue but a weakness in the upper atmosphere will evolve into an upper low across the Gulf Coast and Southeast US. Southwest flow will by early next week turn to South and Southeast. That may turn out to be a better focusing mechanism for showers and thunderstorms...the gradient between the upper low and Bermuda High could result in the potential for some deep moisture to be pulled into the region...we'll have more on this in later updates!


 Model Projected 850 mb wind flow (Tuesday morning)

Model Projected 850 mb wind flow (Tuesday morning)



 

 PWAT's (Tuesday)

PWAT's (Tuesday)

Have a great Friday!

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

Midweek Weather Briefing: Early Summer weather pattern to settle in...

Good Wednesday morning…we are quickly transitioning weather-wise to an early summer type of weather pattern.

 

A weak upper trough moved through yesterday and ridging will slowly try to re-establish itself across the Southeast US but the process itself will be slow. Regardless, now that we are full week into the month of May, the weather will generally be warm with slight chances of rain showers here and there.

 

Today should remain dry for about 99% of us as fairly dry air is in place, afternoon high’s will reach the low 80’s on average. West-Southwest flow aloft will continue through the end of the work week keeping the region warm. Shower chances on Thursday may increase just a bit thanks to a weak upper level feature and differential heating along the higher terrain. Temps for Thursday and Friday will remain in the low to mid 80’s.


1001.PNG

 

 

The flow will remain WSW this weekend but heights in general will rise across the Southeast US, that will help to spike the heat up a knotch. Saturday will see mid to upper 80’s and on Sunday we may have enough capping in place along with downsloping winds to where the first widespread 90 degree readings are possible in the Foothills and Western Piedmont.

 

1002.PNG

 

This pattern will remain stagnant through the rest of the 7-Day forecast period…an early summer look for sure!

 

Have a great day!

 

Daniel Crawley  @SoApps1979
Foothills Weather Network  @FHWxN

Sunday Futurecast: Continued mild with a slight chance of showers/storms

Good Sunday morning, a weak frontal boundary is located across the Southeast US this morning. Also, a weak non-tropical low is located off the North Carolina Coastline. Our area is located in between those features. While there is some moisture in place we have a lack of a stronger trigger to fire off showers and thunderstorms. That said, we still cannot rule out a few showers with the afternoon heating. Temperatures by this afternoon will be dependent on just how much cloud cover builds…

 

 

FUTURECAST

11 am

1001.PNG
1002.PNG

 

 

2 pm

1003.PNG
1004.PNG

 

 

5 pm

1005.PNG
1006.PNG

 

 

 

 

 

Sunday Weather Briefing: Unsettled weather continues in short term, then a return to May warmth...

Good Sunday morning, we hope that your weekend has been great to this point. We are taking a look at the weather pattern that appears to be taking hold here in the medium and long range.

 

Today through about Tuesday we will have a weakness aloft across the Southeast US and that will allow for clouds, rain chances and more importantly cooler weather. Temperatures the next few days look to stay at or below the 80 degree mark for afternoon highs.

 

However once we get toward the middle of next week, warmth kicks back in big time and a taste of early summer, minus the humidity, could take hold.

 

Looking at the ensemble guidance, ridging across the US appears to settle back in by the end of next week and will last through the middle part of the month. This has been a recent change in the pattern, after going through an abnormally cold March and April, it appears that May has kicked in a pattern change…at least temporarily.


105.PNG
106.PNG

 

The early spring featured a lot of high latitude blocking which is known teleconnection-wise as a -NAO. That usually resulted in colder and active weather across the Eastern US. The teleconnection has obviously switched to a more +NAO which usually associates with milder and somewhat drier weather.

 

The + NAO looks to hold firm until the end of the month. It will be interesting to see if this is only temporary or if it becomes a trend for the summer. The past several months have been wetter than normal, is that run going to end? Only time will tell…
 


107.PNG

 

 

Anyway, here is a look at current guidance and what the ensembles are portraying for parts of the coverage area. Again, its only guidance so don’t take the numbers verbatim…just note the overall trend!

 

101.PNG
102.PNG
103.PNG

Have a great Sunday! We'll have more on the near term weather later this morning...

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

 

 

 

 

Saturday Night Futurecast: Showers and a few thunderstorms possible...

Good Saturday evening, a cold front continues to move toward the Western Carolinas. With increasing moisture and a focus of energy at the surface in place, a few showers or thunderstorms are possible through the evening hours and into the overnight across the Western Carolinas. Best chance looks to be across the Foothills but all location could see precipitation at some point in the next 12-24 hours…

 

FUTURECAST:

8 pm

301.PNG

 

11 pm

302.PNG

1 am

303.PNG

4 am

304.PNG

Shower and thunderstorm chances will continue into parts of Sunday and Monday before high pressure re-asserts itself for the mid part of next week

Have a good evening!

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

 

 

 

 

Saturday Futurecast: Showers and thunderstorms possible

High Pressure off the East Coast and a weakening frontal boundary will move into the region today, it could be just enough of a trigger and focus to fire off a few showers and thunderstorms by this afternoon. Rainfall amounts are expected to be light through the late afternoon…

 

 

FUTURECAST:

 

8 am

1101.PNG

11 am

1102.PNG

2 pm

1103.PNG

6 pm

1104.PNG

Showers and thunderstorm chances will continue through tonight before dying out on Sunday...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weather Briefing: Friday, May 4th, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: A disturbance moves in for the weekend, mild next week, a BIG warm up possible late next week

 GFS Model-Forecasted setup for this weekend. Important surface features are labeled on the map.

GFS Model-Forecasted setup for this weekend. Important surface features are labeled on the map.

Over the past few days, we've seen mainly clear conditions with progressively warmer temperatures. We'll see possibly the warmest day so far this year today, with highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s across the area. Clear conditions will also continue for the day on Friday. As we head into the weekend, a disturbance which has caused numerous amounts of severe weather over the middle of the country will start to move into the eastern United States. Depending on how much the cold front (which will slow to a stationary front) moves to the East, we could see either warm and mainly dry conditions for the day on Saturday or milder and wetter conditions. Currently, it looks like the stationary front will be close enough to our area to provide a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend. Because the front will struggle to move eastward over the weekend, there will be a consistent chance of rain over the weekend and into the early part of Monday. Eventually, the front will weaken to the point of being unrecognizable, and high pressure will begin to develop to our northeast. As it does, some models are suggesting that the high pressure system could funnel cool air into our area for the middle of the week, keeping temperatures in check through a setup called "cold air damming". This cool flow could also bring moist air into out area, so there is still a possibility for rain into the middle of the week.

 Possible Cold-Air Damming setup for next Tuesday

Possible Cold-Air Damming setup for next Tuesday

As we head into the latter half of next week, a ridge of warm air will start to spread eastward over the United States, causing temperatures to increase in our area. Temperatures should increase from the day on Wednesday through the day on Saturday, with mainly dry conditions overhead. As a result of this long warming pattern, we could easily see temperatures make it back up into the mid- and upper-80s by next weekend. Otherwise, no major synoptic-scale disturbances appear on the horizon.

 Ridge-Trough Pattern for the Early-to-Middle part of next week. Relative temperatures are given by the "hot" and "mild" labels.

Ridge-Trough Pattern for the Early-to-Middle part of next week. Relative temperatures are given by the "hot" and "mild" labels.

 Ridge-Trough Pattern for the end of next week. The wave loses amplitude, causing warm air to spill eastward, and cold air to be pushed off to the north.

Ridge-Trough Pattern for the end of next week. The wave loses amplitude, causing warm air to spill eastward, and cold air to be pushed off to the north.

Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham

The Heat is On!

Good Thursday everyone! 

The Heat is on! Today and Friday we will see temperatures rise into the mid to upper 80's. Some areas could see 90 degrees. 

The Bermuda High has set up and giving us a nice warm up over the area. This has allowed our temperatures to warm well into the 80's.

As we transition into the weekend, we will watch a cold front move close to area, that will allow our rain chances to increase as well as increase the humidity.   Temperatures for Saturday and Sunday should be in the low 80's. Humidity values will make temperatures feel a bit warmer. 

Saturday should be a good day for the most part. We could see a few showers or storms develop on Saturday afternoon. Sunday we stand the see a better chance at some showers and storms, but by no means is it going to be a rainy washout. 

Monday and Tuesday we should stay close to just above average temperatures and maybe a few showers on Monday. Then we start to warm up as we go into Mothers Day weekend. 

 

Have a great day! 

Scotty 

Rainy Weekend Ahead

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation!

It's a bit hot out there today with our daily high in the low to mid 80's, but it will only be like this for a couple more days before we will return to some "cooler" temperatures in the 70's. So what changes? 

Right now we have a high pressure centered over the Southeastern US that is very similar to the one we saw back in February that brought along plenty of unseasonable warmth. This high pressure was more or less advected by a strong ridge that propagated into the region, but now we are beginning to see our ridge flatten a tad as a "summer-y" trough begins to carve away at it's edges as the trough slowly trudges across the Great Plains today on through Friday. With that being said, we're likely to see temperatures in the mid 80's on through Friday. 

Starting Saturday our trough will begin to make it's impacts as a "river" of moisture pours over the eastern side of the Appalachians bringing in overcast conditions for Saturday and precipitation probabilities that will ramp up as we go through the day. At this time we don't see any threats of severe weather with this frontal passage, so for now we can assume it will be strictly a rain event with possibly a bit of wind and possibly some lightning. This rain event is likely to hold out on through Sunday where it will begin to taper off to 30% in the pm hours. Current predictions have rainfall totals at a quarter to a half an inch, but is likely to change. Temperatures on Saturday and Sunday will be in the upper and mid 70's respectively for the diurnal high, upper and mid 50's respectively for the nightly lows, and with west-southwesterly winds of around 5-10 mph. 

Following this frontal passage our work week will start off a smidge cooler with temperatures hovering in the upper 70's for the first half of the week along with partly cloudy conditions. Although the cold front will be beyond us come Sunday night, the aforementioned "river" of moisture will still be centered over us for Monday through Wednesday. This would explain the slightly cooler daytime temperatures as it is harder to heat up more saturated air, and likewise the slightly warmer nighttime temperatures as more saturated air "holds onto heat" better. This moisture also leaves the possibility of diurnally convected pop-up storms that will have the possibility of having some lightning associated with them. The timing of these should happen closer to the noon to afternoon hours. 

Thank you for reading! I hope everyone keeps cool on this Hump Day!

Sunday weather briefing: the week ahead

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation!

I'll keep the literature short- a sun shiny day awaits us!

For that matter, we have a bounty of sun shiny days ahead of us this week as a ridge shoulders away the cut off low that has hung around the past couple of days. This ridge will begin to center over us starting Tuesday, but will slowly begin to flatten out throughout the week as a new full latitude trough propagates across the central US. As it begins to flatten out we will see some precipitable water make it's presence starting on Thursday.

 Precipitable water valid 06Z Thursday, GFS, COD Meteorology

Precipitable water valid 06Z Thursday, GFS, COD Meteorology

This means that chances of convective precipitation probabilities are reasonable- so far up to 30% for Thursday. We will see a short dip in precipitable water for Thursday evening and early Friday, but come Friday night into Saturday the tail of a moderate strength frontal passage will push through the region bringing probably a refreshing bout of rain. Exactly how much rain will greatly depend on how quick the passage is models and model runs vary on this event. As of this hour the NWS doesn't express concern of a weekend precipitation event, but this is about a week away so there is time to prove. 

Temperature wise please take note that we will likely see temperatures on the rise into the 80's this week and so far we don't see evidence of the frontal passage being enough to cool things down too significantly (5ish degrees). For those who plan on spending some time outside our clearer conditions mean for a high pollen forecast and a very high UV index as well. Be prepared!

That's it for the light reading!

Have a wonderful week!

Saturday Weather Briefing: April showers to bring May flowers...and warmth?

Good Saturday morning, the weekend is here and mother nature is giving us a much needed break from the active weather that we experienced most of this work-week. For once, we can say with confidence that you can put the slickers and/or umbrella away.

Things are quiet early this morning, a stout trough is establishing itself across the Eastern US for the weekend. Northwest winds are bringing in a fresh air mass to our part of the world. As you can see on the water vapor image dry air is in place.


1253.PNG

 

 

You can also see the clues of a cooler air mass with dewpoint temperatures, they are quite low across the Northern tier of the country compared to the moderate dewpoints in the southern tier of the nation.

 

1254.PNG

 

This cooler air is not going to have a lot of impact on today’s weather…mostly sunny skies, light westerly winds and late April sun angle is a great recipe for warmth for today so get out and enjoy it! Temperatures for this afternoon will jump up into the low to mid 70’s but as you can see on this temperature image there is colder air moving in from the northwest.

 

102.PNG

 

That influence will be seen a lot more starting tonight and heading into Sunday. Clear skies and light winds tonight will set up perfect radiational cooling across the Western Carolinas. Temperatures early Sunday morning will be in the low 40’s, 30’s if you are heading toward the mountains. Sunday’s high’s will be shaved off by a good 5-8 degrees back into the 60’s to around 70. The same weather will linger into Monday as well with just a slight moderation.

 

103.PNG

 

 

As we get into Tuesday there are subtle features aloft that will be changing the weather pattern and by mid week, the Southeast is going to transition into a warm and dry regime just in time for the first week of May. Southwest winds aloft on Tuesday will pump warmer air back to the Carolinas, also notice a ridge axis beginning to form right overhead…

 

110.PNG

 

That evolves ultimately into the infamous Southeast Ridge by Thursday…so in other words, here comes the heat! A closed ridge aloft will center itself over the Deep South and will expand its reach. This pattern is really going to get that Bermuda Grass to activate itself and run after going through the entire month of April with a wildly variable pattern.

 

111.PNG

 

Temperatures for the midweek time-frame will be in the 80’s widespread and there may even be a touch of humidity at times…but not quite the muggies just yet! And with the change in the pattern, there will be little in the way of rain through Friday…

 

121.PNG
122.PNG

 

 

Have a great Saturday!

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN