50/50 Weather Weekend: Rain chances increase as ridge begins to erode

Good Saturday morning to everyone…we hope that your week has been great. The weekend is here and we are looking at a 50/50 weekend in terms of the weather.

 

This morning we remain in a very warm pattern for the last days of February. Temperatures are mild in the 50’s with variable cloudiness based on location. The morning clouds should begin to dissipate by late morning and we’ll be off and running toward another unseasonably warm day. High pressure aloft is located across Florida and has given the region a very warm and humid flow all week long.


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For this afternoon expect partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures in the mid 70’s with a southwest breeze picking up.

 

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The dominant ridge over the Southeast will finally begin to loosen its grip starting tonight and it will ultimately lead to a wet second half of the weekend. Clouds will start to increase tonight as a frontal boundary will finally slide eastward toward the Southern Appalachian Region, the result will be another mild night with upper 50’s and low 60’s by daybreak Sunday.

 

By Sunday morning southerly flow will begin to yield some light amounts of moisture along the Blue Ridge, most likely in the form of drizzle and mist. Then by midday more widespread rain moves in with the approach of the surface boundary. This will all result in lower high's for Sunday (60's to near 70) most likely reached around mid day.


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Once the rainfall begins in the afternoon it will be slow to move, if anything the rain shield will begin to transition from a SW-NE orientation to more of a West-East look thanks to upper ridging that will persist. This keeps North Carolina is a favorable position for showers and heavier rainfall through Sunday night before getting another kick to the east on Monday.

 

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At this time, rainfall amounts look fairly modest  with ½ inch likely and a few spots of over ¾ of an inch through Monday evening.

 

Weather Prediction Center Rainfall Forecast through Monday 7 pm

Weather Prediction Center Rainfall Forecast through Monday 7 pm

Have a great day!

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Weather Briefing: Friday, February 23rd, 2018

HEADLINES: RAIN AND WARMTH; NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE STATUS QUO IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

GFS (American) Model Precipitation Type and Mean Surface Level Pressure for 7:00 a.m. Sunday, February 25th. Surface features have been hand-analyzed.

GFS (American) Model Precipitation Type and Mean Surface Level Pressure for 7:00 a.m. Sunday, February 25th. Surface features have been hand-analyzed.

The past few days have been exceptionally warm and relatively dry across the area, and while the warmer than average temperatures look likely to continue for at least the next week or so, we will reintroduce a chance of precipitation for the weekend and several times through the week next week. Friday will be an interesting day by itself, as a mesoscale frontal boundary will come very close to our area, possibly keeping temperatures cooler if it passes to our south. Right now, it appears that temperatures should be fairly similar to the past few days, with highs topping out in the low 70s. As we head into our Saturday, clouds will be on the increase, although there is still a chance that we could see peeks of sun during the day. While there is a chance of showers for Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west, the front should be far enough away to keep rain chances low. However, as we move into Sunday, the cold front will finally begin to push through the area. As the front moves through, we will see showers during the day on Sunday. Precipitation totals will be fairly moderate, with most areas likely seeing between 1/4" and 3/4" of rain.

European (ECMWF) Model Estimated Precipitation for the Next Seven Days

European (ECMWF) Model Estimated Precipitation for the Next Seven Days

GFS (American) Model Estimated Precipitation for the Next Seven Days

GFS (American) Model Estimated Precipitation for the Next Seven Days

As we move into next week, we have a challenging forecast setup for next Monday. There is disagreement currently in the main computer models as to whether or not we will see additional precipitation on Monday. The American (GFS) Model suggests that the cold front will push well through our area, leaving us with fair conditions. On the other hand, the European (ECMWF) Model suggests that an area of low pressure will develop on the tail end of the stalled-out frontal boundary and will move up through the Southeastern United States for the day on Monday. Both models suggest some cooling of temperatures in the wake of the cold front, although it now looks unlikely for temperatures to fall below average after the cold front passes. Regardless, it looks like Tuesday will be very pleasant, with high pressure briefly controlling the weather over the Carolinas. The pleasant weather will be short-lived, as another series of disturbances look likely to bring rain into our area for the middle to latter parts of next week. In terms of temperature, after several consecutive days of modest cooling, temperatures are favored to rise back to their well-above average levels for the middle to end of next week. Nevertheless, no return to the bitterly cold temperatures of January looks likely in the next 5-8 days, as the synoptic-scale pattern (below) continues to suggest at or above normal temperatures for the foreseeable future.

European (ECMWF) Model Forecasted 500 mb Heights [lines] and Height Anomaly [shading] for Wednesday, February 28th, at 1:00 p.m.

European (ECMWF) Model Forecasted 500 mb Heights [lines] and Height Anomaly [shading] for Wednesday, February 28th, at 1:00 p.m.

Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham

Friday could be a Interesting Day.

We are watching a backdoor cold moves into the area from the Northeast. 

Overnight lows will be mild again as most areas bottom out in the upper 50's to low 60's. 

By 6 am you can see the front is moving into the Greensboro area. 

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This front will continue to sag into the Interstate 40 corridor by Midday. It could be accompanied by a few showers or sprinkles. 

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By mid to late afternoon the front begins to retreat and move back to the Northeast, allow temperatures to move into the mid to upper 60's. 

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By Saturday we will monitor another strong cold front that is slowly moving into the area. It could kick off a few showers on Saturday. Sunday widespread showers will move into the area. Temperatures will be warm as both days should be in the upper 60's to low 70's. 

Scotty 

Wednesday Weather Briefing: Continued Spring Fever...

Spring fever in late February continues for the Southeast US including the Western Carolinas and in the near term is could only get stronger.

 

Yesterday was our first taste of it as clouds finally broke and southwest winds pumped temperatures well up into the 60’s and low 70’s.

 

Today’s weather is going to feature deep southeast flow bringing warmth and moisture off the Atlantic. Thankfully for today moisture will not be deep enough to produce rainfall…but it will bring a taste of humid conditions.


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For today we will have partly cloudy conditions with locations in the lower 70’s.

 

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With a strong high pressure aloft off the East Coast and trough sliding into the Southwestern part of the country, a southerly and stable flow will persist for the second half of the work week. Overnight temperatures will remain mild with most folks beginning their morning’s in the mid 50’s with afternoon temps in the 70’s for Thursday, Friday and Saturday…

 

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Once we get to Sunday, high pressure may relax itself and that could allow a frontal boundary to finally push moisture back into the Western Carolinas, in the form of rain showers.

 

One thing that is a by-product of the abnormally warm conditions is an increase in pollen values…they’re starting to show up especially mold…if you are sensitive early season allergens, please take all the proper precautions…

 

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Have a great Wednesday!

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Huge Warm Up This Week But Long Range Indicates Cold Returning.

Good Tuesday Morning to everyone across the Foothills Weather Network. I hope you have had a great night of rest and are ready to run with Tuesday. Starting off with widespread dense fog. You are really going to need to give yourself some extra travel time this morning as you head into work. Just a light jacket nessessary as temps are in the low and mid 50’s. It will take a while for all of this dense fog to burn off too. That’s going to be the one limiting factor to high temps today. High pressure builds over the Southeast Coast and temps are going to respond nicely with time. Even today, although we get a late start on heating due to all the fog, our temps should manage to reach the mid and maybe upper 60’s. After the fog does burn off we will see a few peaks of warm sunshine. Clouds by in large win out and will feature mostly cloudy conditions. 

 

The high pressure aforementioned will become quite strong late this week. It initially will aid in holding clouds across the area into Wednesday. Clockwise flow around this strong high pressure will push moisture up against the east slopes of the Blue Ridge. That means a lot of clouds but very warm temps. By Wednesday we will tack on another 10 degrees to our highs we see today, reaching the low to mid 70’s. The Ridge continues to build and temperatures could push 80° in a few areas by late week. 

High pressure off the SE Coast Wednesday Afternoon

High pressure off the SE Coast Wednesday Afternoon

Warm weather lovers rejoice with the news they are seeing this week. It will really add on the Spring fever. As stated in the title though our long range pattern becomes more cold and blustery. Sudden Stratospheric Warning has started over the North Pole. Below is the graphic for Our GFS model. You can see the heights rising over the Arctic. As the SSW continues it looks like it will take the North Atlantic Oscillation into the tank. With the NAO becomes negatively tilted, it dumps cold air along the East Coast. There is likely to be a strong low develop along the East Coast somewhere the week of March 6th in response to this pattern change. 

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Sudden Stratospheric Warning I’ve the North Pole as modeled next Wednesday Feb 28th

 

Now no there is no need to panic. The reason I bring this info to you today is because I don’t want to see anyone plant and then lose crops. As cold weather returns in March, it looks like a very interesting setup.  March looks stormy and very active. Stay tuned for that and remember don’t plant crops before Tax Day. They likely will freeze. We will have to see how this cold air impacts Apple and peach farmers. I hope not bad. 

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist  

FWN

Sunday Weather Discussion: A Brief Brief

Wow! What a beautiful Sunday it is outside with the bounty of sunshine and promise of spring-ish (upper 50's) temperatures today. :)  

Unfortunately this will be short lived. This weather discussion will be on the shorter side as the number of differing events is low and confidence on the forecast is reasonably high.

Tonight into the earlier part of Washington's Birthday we will see the clouds pour back into the area with a warm front that ushers in the "new" weather pattern.  The high pressure dominating the Southeastern US will make a slight eastern shift which will put us back on that belt of warm and moist air that we have seen on an off for almost a month now. This setup has locked it's teeth into the region and currently has no sure symptoms of moving for the next 6-7 days. Every day this week from Tuesday to Saturday we will have mostly cloudy conditions and a 30-40% chance of rain with no current suggestion of any severe weather. Tuesday through Thursday the temperatures will be in the low 70's for the diurnal high and upper 50's for the nightly low. Friday and Saturday a upper level shortwave trough will scoot over the Appalachians dropping our temperature range 5-8 degrees for the high and lows. This may remind you of this past week, so there's a possibility of catching a small break of sunshine if we are allowed to recognize some patterns, but there isn't a solid promise of this.

We will keep you informed if we see a change in our rinse, wash, repeat pattern.

Thanks for reading! Go outside!!!

 

 

Saturday Weather Briefing...

Good Saturday to everyone across the region…what a dramatic change of events in the weather across the Foothills and Western Piedmont.

 

The past two days have features some very warm air that has been pumped into the region on southerly winds. Yesterday’s high’s were in the upper 70’s to lower 80s giving a real spring-like feel to everything. That also includes natures as a few trees or flowers likely tried to pop a bloom with the recent mild weather all this week. Well, today is the polar opposite of spring…we have taken a step back toward winter.


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Here at the pre-daybreak timeframe, temperatures are much cooler in the 40’s and low 50’s. a surface high is pressing down from our north and will help create a hybrid-wedge across the Carolinas today. Matter of fact today’s high’s are occurring here before daybreak. We will see a slow decline through the day as light moisture may try to overrun the cooler air. Temps will bottom out in the lower to mid 40’s by afternoon and will likely hold there for tonight with light rain showers scattered about.

 

 

Rain chances while high, it does exactly mean that amounts will be high as well. This should generally remain light in amounts with heavier totals west of the region, thanks to the flow aloft moving the greatest concentration of moisture across the Tennessee Valley and into Virginia and West Virginia.


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Sunday’s weather is going to feature little if any changes on a synoptic scale. Aloft WSW flow will help to possibly erode out hybrid wedge. Sunday’s highs will get back up into the 50’s and could actually go higher if clouds erode a bit faster than projected. The margin between a cooler regime and much warmer is really thin with this look aloft.

 

By early next week, the flow aloft will change a bit and become more true southwest…that could help pump better moisture into the region on the backside of the ridge located off the Florida East Coast and east of the Bahamas. By Tuesday and Wednesday 60’s and 70’s appear likely again with modest precip chances…


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Have a great day…

 

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Weather Briefing: Friday, February 16th, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: Cooler for the weekend, then warm and unsettled next week.

Over the past few days, our area has seen unseasonably warm temperatures for February, making things feel more like the middle of May. These warm temperatures will continue on Friday until a frontal boundary moving into our area from the northwest brings a shot of cooler air that should make its way into our area by Friday night into Saturday morning. Temperatures on Saturday will likely be 25-35 degrees cooler than temperatures on Friday, as high pressure in the Northeastern United States will move cold air down into our region. This cold air, which is too dense to be forced over the mountains, tends to pool along and immediately to the east of the Appalachian Mountains, creating a phenomenon called Cold-Air Damming. This type of setup will be the main driver of the cooler temperatures for Saturday, and will likely remain over our area into late Saturday night, as no obvious source of heating looks likely to erode the cold air near the surface. At the same time that the cold air becomes locked in place, precipitation will form along the now-stationary frontal boundary, creating what will more than likely be a cold rain for Saturday afternoon. On Sunday, the precipitation should move out of the area by the early morning hours, leaving us with what should be both a sunny and seasonable day.

Image depicting the Cold-Air Damming Setup for Saturday.

Image depicting the Cold-Air Damming Setup for Saturday.

Looking ahead to next week, computer models are hinting at another possible cold-air damming event for Monday that could keep high temperatures lower than would be suggested by the upper-level flow pattern, which will see building areas of high pressure over the Southeastern United States and Eastern North Atlantic Ocean. This ridge of high pressure, which will strengthen throughout the early-to-middle part of next week, will allow for a warm, southerly flow to develop throughout the southeast, likely setting up another unseasonably warm week of temperatures. Additionally, this "dome" of high pressure could force much of the precipitation associated with various low pressure systems up to our west and north. On the image below, the red dashed lines serve almost like train tracks that disturbances follow. As you can see, the ridge to our southeast is blocking any significant low pressure disturbances from entering our area. Nevertheless, instability created by the warm and humid flow is likely to kick off some showers during the week next week, so some precipitation is still possible, although the heaviest of the moisture looks to remain to our north and west. However, if the forecasted position of this "dome" changes, we could be in for another soggy week next week.

Synoptic Setup for the middle of next week

Synoptic Setup for the middle of next week

Have a great Friday and a wonderful weekend!

Chase Scott Graham

Wednesday Weather Briefing: Stagnant weather pattern continues, bouts of moisture and plenty of clouds

Good Wednesday morning to everyone…

 

A stagnant weather pattern continues for the Western Carolinas and all of the Southeast US. There is abundant moisture in the atmosphere that is helping to keep cloud cover very persistent. That plus a left over cold air damming regime is leading a cold and clammy feel for your Wednesday.

 

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Looking at the atmosphere aloft the Carolinas is located in between a sprawling ridge centered over the Gulf of Mexico and an upper level low pressure across Canada, that is resulting in west-southwest winds being funneled through a good part of the nation. As you can see on the water vapor image, Pacific origin moisture continues to spread northeast and is caught in the prevailing wind flow aloft. While that would normally mean mid conditions, it’s the surface features that are doing the dirty work today.

 

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A leftover surface high that once reached 1046 mb across Pennsylvania drained cold, dry surface air down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians. With that air mass stuck in place and warmer, moist air overrunning the result here at the surface is chilly conditions with plenty of clouds and occasional showers, mist or drizzle.

 

10 am Regional Temperatues (2/14/18)

10 am Regional Temperatues (2/14/18)

 

This left over cold pool is going to make the forecast complicated for later today…there was some expectation that warm air may begin to take over in the afternoon and allow daytime temps to get well up into the 50’s. While that is still attainable, with each passing hour the odds of that are lowering. It’s something we’ll have to watch but don’t be surprised if we end up falling below the forecast high.

 

The features aloft are not going to change a whole lot the next couple days as we remain in that conveyor belt. At the surface the cold pool should retreat on Thursday and that could lead to a rapid warmup well into the 60’s tomorrow especially if a good amount of sun appears. The same goes for Friday as another frontal boundary will be approaching later in the day. By Friday night that front will help bring our next chance at widespread rain showers, those will persist into the early part of the weekend as the surface features begin to parallel the winds at the jet stream level slowing things down once again…also come Saturday we may be dealing with another cold air damming episode as well.

 

All in all…a very unsettled and at time murky weather pattern through the end of the week…

Cold Tuesday And A Damp Forecast. Weekend Looks To Be Wet Again, Maybe Icy In Mountains

Good Tuesday Morning to you.  I hope you are having a great start to the week.  I have been enjoying the Olympics indoors since the weather has been kind of dull and gloomy outside.  Go USA!  Well weather wise I'm afraid I don't have great news for sunshine.  A cold front to our North has stalled allowing disturbances to ride along it.  The front moves into our area for the weekend but not before a warm front moves North tonight and into Wednesday, breaking down the current Cold Air Damming Event. 

Out the door this morning there are patches of drizzle and areas of fog.  If you are traveling in the mountains this morning use caution because just enough freezing drizzle has fallen up there to create some slick spots on roadways.  Those slick spots are limited to the mountains though.  With temps in the low and mid 40's across the foothills there is no threat of ice.  Highs today will not be much above where they sit right now.  Expect mist and drizzle off an on through the day.  Here is a look at the temperature changes over the last 24 hours.

24 hour temperature change

24 hour temperature change

The normal high for today's date is 52 and the normal low is 29 making a daily average temperature of 40.5 degrees.  Even though it will be chilly, most areas will still be just above that average today.  Here is a look at the high temps compared to average over the next 6 days.  Saturday/Sunday will likely change though so don't focus too much on those numbers.  It appears that colder air could be around Saturday into Sunday, more on that in on down.

As you can see above Thursday is going to be pretty warm.  There will be showers around the area but temps will be near 70 as an upper level ridge of high pressure in the Gulf of Mexico funnels warm air North.  It wont last though.  We hold onto shower chances though as a cold front moves in on Friday and stalls.  Another decent shot of rain looks like it will come through Friday Afternoon.  As the front stalls waves of low pressure will move east along it.  Saturday this becomes interesting an interesting setup.  A strong Arctic high will be supplying cold air down the East slope of the mountains and will develop a cold air damming event.  At the same time low pressure pushes precipitation into the area Saturday Evening.  High temps on Saturday look like they will reach their high at Midnight Friday Night/Saturday Morning.  From there temps will fall as a backdoor cold front moves into the area.  Big questions remain as to how far south that cold air makes it and as to how deep it may be.  There could be a mix of rain, snow, freezing rain or just plain rain.  Its something we will continue to monitor as the week moves forward.  Important to note that the European model is much warmer with this system and keeps it all rain Saturday through Sunday. 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist

Temps Fall Today, Rain Chances Continue, And Chance Of Light Mountain Ice Tonight.

Good Monday Morning.  I hope you have a good weekend and have been able to stay dry.  Cloudy skies and area temps right around 60 as you head out the door.  A backdoor cold front will wedge down the East side of the Blue Ridge enhancing cloud cover, dropping temps, and keeping the chance of rain in the forecast.  Alexander will see the cooler air start to move in by late morning and then it spreads south from there. 

Futurecast Temperatures 3:00, 6:00, 10:00pm (I am skeptical that the warm temps hold on as long as indicated by this model.  I expect those temps to be closer with everyone elses.)

Futurecast Radar at 7:00pm

Futurecast Radar at 7:00pm

Temperatures overnight should bottom out in the low 40's for lows and they will not move much on Tuesday.  The mountains though will see temps fall into the upper 20's to around 30 degrees.  This means any moisture that does fall overnight in the high country will be of the frozen variety, likely freezing mist or light freezing rain.  This will not be enough to cause any problems with power but travel may be tricky first thing in the morning.  No threat of ice in the foothills though.  That is strictly limited for the mountains. 

Tuesday temps will not move much and clouds will be stubborn to break down as the cold air damming event holds in place.  A few isolated showers are possible even Tuesday. Again, temps hold in the 40's.   By Wednesday the wedge will break down and warmer weather comes surging back North.  That warm front though means the chance for showers returns for Wednesday.  Synopticlly the weather pattern will remain unsettled.   Thursday looks to be the warmest day of the week with highs approaching 70 degrees. The last time anyone in the viewing area saw 70 degree weather was December 19th, 2017.  I'm sure most will welcome it back.  On Friday another frontal system approaches the area bringing the chance of showers back into the forecast for Friday and Saturday.  Temps return to near normal (53-54 degrees) for the weekend.

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist

Rain, rain, go away... Sunday wx briefing

Good Sunday afternoon. The NWS currently has a Hazardous Weather Outlook issued for our forecasting region which goes as follows:

355 AM EST Sun Feb 11 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Elbert County in northeast
Georgia, the piedmont of western North Carolina and the eastern
Upstate and lower piedmont of South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heavy rainfall may produce isolated flooding across the region today
through tonight. Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will produce
occasional cloud-to-ground lightning and gusty winds, especially this
afternoon. Any heavier rainfall rates in thunderstorms may also
worsen localized flooding problems.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...Heavy rain with flooding possible. Localized flooding
issues could linger into Monday morning.
..Tuesday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time. 

In a nutshell we are far from being done with the heavy rains as strong, saturated southwesterly flow funnels in a "river" of precipitation over the region today. Temperatures outside are currently at a balmy mid 60's which does insinuate the right cocktail of possible thunderstorm(s) later this afternoon into tonight, but nothing suggests severity besides the quickly accumulating rainfall totals. Our waterways are already showing signs of minor flooding. Tonight on through Monday we have a cold front that will very slowly move into the area and stall for the day which will cool temperatures a bit (high around 60) and continue on with our rainy theme. Tuesday will be the start of when this rain event tapers off as precipitation probabilities drop to 30% for the daytime and we will begin to truly feel the impact of the cold frontal passage as our daily high isn't expected to climb above 50 despite the clouds dampening radiational cooling and diurnal fluctuations. 

A surface high that dominates the southeastern US will be what will help and hinder the weather events that will take place for the week ahead. On Wednesday we will have a slight drying period with only a 30% chance of diurnally generated afternoon showers, mostly cloudy conditions, and temperatures back up into the 60's yet again. Thursday will be the peak of temperatures for the week as our "conveyor belt" of Gulf air expresses further with a daily high in the low 70's, more mostly cloudy skies, with more of the same diurnal afternoon showers.

This is where the end of reasonable forecasting confidence remains, but let's close up with a look at the current model suggestions for the weekend:

Friday and Saturday is when we see a possible slight shift in the weather pattern where a broad trough centered over Canada will have it's jet maximum splice through the Mid Atlantic. The GFS expresses a slight shortwave feature that will shoot a weak cold frontal boundary over the mountains while the Euro doesn't see this feature at all. Confidence on these days on exactly what to expect is low, but precipitation (30%) is involved. 

Thank you for reading. Have a nice rest to your weekend and stay dry.

Saturday Weather Briefing: Heavy rain/flash flood threat increasing for this weekend...

Good Saturday to everyone across the region, we continue to monitor what looks to be a very wet next couple days. Since yesterday we have seen a trend take place that suggests that heavy rainfall and flash flood threat is increasing for the Western Carolinas.

 

As of early this morning a warm front has surged northward through the region helping deliver a moist and unstable atmosphere across most of the Southeast US including here in the Western Carolinas. A few rain showers moved through overnight and for the morning hours we have overcast skies with occasional bouts of shower activity.

 

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For later today we see the pieces coming together throughout the atmosphere that is going to lead to heavy rain potential. At the surface a frontal boundary will be centered West of the Appalachians across the Tennessee Valley and that will be a focus for rainfall. At about 5000 ft altitude, southerly slow will strengthen as high pressure in the Atlantic has winds around its rear side transporting a good bit of Atlantic and Gulf moisture northward.

 

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Once you get to the jet stream level, a deep southwest flow that has plenty of Gulf moisture and even some moisture of Pacific origin moving northeast, uninterrupted into the Southern Appalachian Region. These features are coming together to help produce widespread heavy precipitation.

 

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Precipitable Water values of between 1.3 and 1.5 inches will quickly advect northward and into the Western Carolinas by this evening. This kind of moisture content is very high for the second week of February. Its something more like you would see in the late Spring rather than the heart of winter.

 

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So…the combination of a surface boundary, high moisture content and south to southwest flow (upslope) aloft is leading to the heavy rain potential.

 

Computer models yesterday tried to focus the heaviest precip west of the Appalachians in association with the surface boundary but overnight that has shifted east into the Apps and for our coverage area, the Foothills in particular. A conveyor belt of upper level energy on southwest winds is going to produce multiple rounds of steady/heavy precip. It will begin in earnest later this afternoon and will be underway tonight and going through the morning hours of Sunday and beyond

 

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This is really a best case scenario for heavy rain genesis as the front is slow moving and we have deep moisture in place…so this has the potential to be a big rainmaker. And with recent wet weather, it could lead to flash flood issues especially on Sunday. Another factor to play into the rain potential will involve just how much convective activity may try to form as warmer air is being pulled in.

 

The latest WPC outlook has widespread 2-3 inch rainfall totals with local amounts of 4+ inches through Monday morning, that looks like a solid forecast at this time in regards to our area. WPC has also updated its excessive rainfall outlook putting areas west of the mountains in a slight risk…that could easily be adjusted east in later updates…

 

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Residents of the Western Carolinas should be prepared for the possibility of some flash flooding later this weekend. Our weather team will continue to monitor the situation and will post any additional watches or warnings that are issued by the National Weather Service.

 

Have a great Saturday and remain Weather Aware all weekend.

 

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Weather Briefing: Friday, February 9th, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: Rain, Rain, and More Rain; Warm Weather Next Week

General Weather Setup for this weekend.

General Weather Setup for this weekend.

Today, we are heading into what appears to be a prolonged stretch of unseasonably wet and warm weather. The rain will come first, as a frontal boundary will move from the upper Great Plains toward the Eastern United States as we head into the beginning of the weekend. As it approaches the Appalachian Mountains, the front will basically stall, remaining nearly stationary from the middle of Saturday through Sunday. Since we will be out ahead of the frontal boundary, we will see a moist, southwesterly flow settle in place for the majority of the weekend. This moist flow will allow for intermittent showers on Saturday, and steadier rains for Saturday night into Sunday as the front moves close enough for the main area of precipitation to reach our area. It appears that the determining factor in how much rain we see is how close that frontal boundary makes it to our area before stalling out. If the front stalls out farther to the northwest, we may miss out on some of the heaviest precipitation. However, if the front stalls out nearly on top of us, we may see some very impressive rain totals. Currently, the two main computer models show us getting at least 1 inch of precipitation this weekend, with the American Model (GFS) showing our area receiving between 1-2" and the European Model showing our area receiving between 2-3". Regardless of specific rainfall amounts, it will be essential to wear the rain gear if you're heading outside this weekend, especially for the day on Sunday. 

American (GFS) Model estimated precipitation through Monday, 12 February 2018.

American (GFS) Model estimated precipitation through Monday, 12 February 2018.

European (ECMWF) Model estimated precipitation through Monday, 12 February 2018.

European (ECMWF) Model estimated precipitation through Monday, 12 February 2018.

Looking ahead to next week, the stationary front will eventually begin to dissipate; however, the remnants of the front will keep things unstable for most of next week. As a result, there is at least a small chance of precipitation nearly every day next week. The main story for next week will be the unseasonable warmth. A ridge will be building across the Central and Eastern United States, reaching its maximum intensity on Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge will allow southerly flow to continue to bring in warm air, and as a result, we could see temperatures that are 10-20 degrees above average for the middle to end of next week.

European Model Forecasted 500 hPa Geopotential Height and Anomaly for 0000 UTC, Wednesday, 14 February 2018.

European Model Forecasted 500 hPa Geopotential Height and Anomaly for 0000 UTC, Wednesday, 14 February 2018.

Thank you for reading! Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham

Flash Flooding & Spring like temperatures

Good Thursday evening everyone! I hope that you had a wonderful day. 

We are watching a very unsettled weather pattern shaping up over our area over the next week. 

Much of this winter we have seen a cool and dry pattern over the area. That is about to change. High pressure is beginning to regain it's strength off the Southeast coast. That is allowing some warmer temperatures, and somewhat active weather pattern. The Jet stream is able to dip and gather moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, the Atlantic Ocean and even somewhat from the Pacific ocean. That will allow very moist air to move into the area. 

Several rounds of rain will move into the area Friday evening, and will last through a good portion of next week. Saturday through Thursday show chances of rain each day. Saturday we will see rounds of rain and some of it will be heavy. But as we go into Saturday night through Sunday heavy rain will be a big story.

Concern is growing that Flash Flooding may be possible across the area. We are in a Marginal threat to see flash flooding Saturday into Sunday. 

2018-02-08_19-33-25.jpg

We will continue that heavy rain into Sunday night. As we got into Monday our chances of rain start to back off some, instead of seeing 70-90% chances of rain, we see 20-40% chance of rain. All in all another 2-4" of rain is expected through the Foothills and Western Piedmont. 

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Not only is the rain going to be a big story, but the major warm up will be as well. It has been a very cold winter, we started off 2018 with 8 straight days at or below freezing. 

Those temperatures will be all but a memory as we head into the middle to end of next week. The Climate Prediction Center has placed Western North Carolina 60 - 70% above normal in the temperature department. 

The long range models show that as well... 

GFS - American Model 

GFS - American Model 

ECMWF - Euro Model 

ECMWF - Euro Model 

So for the mid to latter part of February it may feel more like April, then February.

 

Have a Great Evening! 

Scotty Powell   

Wednesday Weather Briefing: Here comes the rain again...

Good Wednesday to everyone…if you are a duck or a frog, then today’s weather is right up your alley. Otherwise the next 24 hours is going to feature quite a bit of damp and dreary conditions.

 

Low pressure currently located across the Mid-South will quickly move northeast today and will slide a cold front through the Western Carolinas. Out ahead of it plenty of moisture has pooled up and will move through the region today.

 

Early morning showers will evolve into a heavy and steady rainfall for the late morning hours and the early afternoon. Even with the strength of the front passing through a couple rumbles of thunder cannot be ruled out, especially the further south you are in the coverage area.

 

All signs point to this being a widespread soaking rainfall event today as the heaviest will continue through the early afternoon hours before gradually tapering off. Latest rainfall forecast remains in line with recent thought…1 inch of rainfall for everyone looks to be close to a sure bet area-wide with locally higher amounts focused along southern facing slopes or in locations where convective elements can hold together.


NAM 3km rainfall through midnight

NAM 3km rainfall through midnight

 

 

Temperatures this morning in the 40’s will be slow to move through the morning hours as rain becomes steady. However we may see some warmth filter in especially in the afternoon. High’s will top out in the 50’s.

 

Clouds will begin to decrease in coverage late today and especially tonight as the front slides east of the area. Colder air will temporarily filter in with overnight temperatures getting down into the 30’s.

 

Thursday and Friday will feature a good bit of sunshine as today’s storm system will be long-gone by that point. Thursday’s high temperature will be in the upper 40’s to around 50 with low 50’s expected on Friday.

 

By Saturday the next rainmaker will be in the developmental stages as short wave energy in the Rockies will help sharpen up west-southwest flow aloft transporting Gulf of Mexico moisture into the Carolinas.

 

GFS 500mb vort energy (Saturday 7 pm)

GFS 500mb vort energy (Saturday 7 pm)

 

The weekend at this time looks very unsettled in multiple round of rainfall could slide through bringing another soaking rainfall. Considering this would be the third big rain event in a 7-day span, we will begin to monitor for elevated water levels in local streams and creeks…

Have a great Wednesday!

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Sunday Weather Briefing: February 4, 2018

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation!

It's quite the day outside as we've snuggled near the freezing mark paired with a wash of wintry mix bringing a bit of havoc with some downed trees thanks to the ice. Speaking of ice, there will be plenty of black ice tonight into tomorrow, so while our winter weather advisory may be over impacts will ensue. Chances of precipitation will begin to taper off and should be done by sundown today. Expect overnight temperatures tonight to drop only a few degrees lower into the upper 20's due to cloud coverage holding in radiational heat. 

With today being the climax of eventfulness for this week, we have a relatively mild week ahead with only one additional frontal passage. Monday will bring plenty of sunshine which will be good in helping melt any black ice left on the roads. Expect mild north-northwest winds of 5-7 miles per hour and a daily high in the low 40's and overnight low in the mid 20's. Tuesday will start off much like Monday with sunny skies and temperatures even warmer into the low 50's, and Tuesday night we will see cloud coverage increase over the forecasting area, stifling our overnight temperatures to only the low 40's as katafront conditions are expected to start around 5 am ahead of our impending weak warm front. Wednesday will be a rainy day with temperatures again in the mid 50's, slight winds of 10-15 mph from the southeast. Precipitation should be over by 8 pm on Wednesday night where we will see a decrease in cloud coverage and temperatures sliding back into the mid 30's. Thursday and Friday will be similar sunny days with daily temperatures in the low 50's. Friday night into Saturday is where things begin to get interesting again. There's quite a bit of model disagreements with the surface impacts, but the gist right now is that a surface high pressure will build off the coast causing for an In-Situ Cold Air Damming event. These are typically the weakest and shortest lived of the CAD events, so depending on the timing and intensity of our high pressure build up and the available moisture from the Gulf we may see a rainy event for the calendar day of Saturday, which I will give a 50-50 chance of rain for that day. We will have a clearer picture of what to expect as we get closer to that time.

Thanks for reading! 

 

Winter Weather Update (Saturday Feb 3rd, 6:45 pm)

Good Saturday evening to everyone, we continue to monitor a storm system that could bring a taste of winter weather to the Western Carolinas for your Sunday morning. The one good thing as a forecaster is that we seem to be holding a steady course in how this will all evolve. In other words there have been no big changes seen in today’s model guidance…so with that said lets set the pieces together on the table. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for all counties from 1 am until 10 am Sunday.

 

Advisories 2-3 6 pm.png

 

Cold high pressure has started to move east of the region but it has left behind a residual arctic airmass in its wake. The best indicator in that lies with the current dewpoints across the region, widespread single digit dewpoints are in place. That will provide the airmass sufficient enough to produce frozen or freezing precipitation by first thing Sunday morning.


Dewpoint Temperatures (2/3/2018 6:30 pm)

Dewpoint Temperatures (2/3/2018 6:30 pm)

 

 

The latest computer model guidance develops good jet energy over the southeast late tonight and it will transport moisture into the region just before daybreak. As you can see on the images below, precipitation will start to enter our western counties (McDowell, Rutherford) close to 5 am and could fall as a wintry mix of precip types with temperatures close to the 32 degree mark.


HRRR Future Radar  (5 am)

HRRR Future Radar  (5 am)

 

 

 Then by 8 am widespread precipitation is expected with temperatures close to the 30 degree mark along I-40 and around freezing in our southern tier counties. Precip at this point will likely be in the form of freezing rain as the mid levels warm up.


HRRR Future Radar  (8 am)

HRRR Future Radar  (8 am)

 

 

Then by 10 am we continue to see slight warming both at the surface and aloft…most likely our southern tier will be just above the freezing mark by this time. Meanwhile along and north of I-40, temps right at freezing may be just stubborn enough to hold on to some freezing rain. Counties like McDowell, Burke and Caldwell might see those pockets of freezing air hold tight until around noon before turning to a cold rain for the afternoon hours.


HRRR Future Radar  (10 am)

HRRR Future Radar  (10 am)

 

 

 

Frozen precipitation amounts through noon Sunday continue to range from a couple hundredths in our southern counties to more than .10 in those favored locations in the Foothills.

 

Ice forecast 2-3 6pm.png

 

This will have an impact on Sunday morning road conditions region-wide but improvement should be seen as you get to lunch time with the threat of icing over in the afternoon…

 

Travel Impact Fthls 2-3 6pm.png
Travel Impact Piedmont 2-3 6pm.png

 

At this juncture we see no reason to make any changes to the Winter Storm Index, it will remain at Level 2…

 

Winter Storm Index 2-3 6pm.png

 

 

Stay with the Foothills Weather Network for updates on this winter weather threat, Chief Meteorologist Christopher White will provide the next briefing in the morning…if you haven't done so already right now would be a great time to download The Foothills Weather Network App for your smart phone or tablet!

Winter Weather Update (Saturday Feb 3rd, 5 am): Wintry Precipiation likely next 24-36 hours...

Good Saturday morning, here is the latest winter weather update for the region…

 

Conditions are coming together for a winter weather event for the early morning hours of Sunday through about noon for the Western Carolinas. Cold high pressure in place today will begin to slide east as the next storm system begins to develop out in the Southern Plains. Cold, arctic air is in place today and will not be able to fully retreat before moisture begins to invade after midnight tonight. Winter Weather Advisories have been issued for the area beginning late tonight until Sunday morning...


Advisories 2-3 5am.png

 

With temperatures expected to be near the 30-degree mark early Sunday morning as moisture moves in from the west the potential is there for mixed precipitation across the Western Carolinas. It may begin as a brief burst of snow especially close to the immediate Blue Ridge but should quickly transition to freezing rain by around 7-8 am or so. The initial precip should help lower temps just below the freezing mark thanks to evaporative cooling. As we get later into the morning local temps should slowly rise to the freezing mark by roughly 11 am and then just above critical levels by Noon decreasing and ultimately ending the threat of icing.

 

Latest model data is showing modest icing potential centered across the favored CAD areas of the Foothills. Amounts could range from .10 - .25 inch ice accretion, what agrees with our current forecast thinking. Sections of Alexander, Caldwell, Burke and McDowell Counties might see the worst icing with others seeing .10 inch or less accretion.

 

 Fortunately there is no anchored high pressure to our north but small mesoscale surface highs overhead can help lock in temps right near the freezing mark.

 

Right now expect some impacts on local roadways on Sunday morning, especially anything elevated. However we don’t see enough ice buildup expected to cause issues on trees and power lines…of course we will monitor in case of any changes.


Winter Travel Impacts Fthls 2-3 5am.png
Travel Impacts Piedmont 2-3 5am.png

 

With everything going on there is no significant change in the Winter Weather Index as of this morning, it remains at Level 2 at this time…

Winter Storm Index 2-3 5am.png
Storm Overview 2-3-5am.png

 

Stay with Foothills Weather Network as we will have the latest on winter weather potential throughout the day...

Weather Briefing: Friday, February 2nd, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: Wintry Weather, then Warmer. Much-needed Precipitation on the way!

European Model Forecasted Precipitation for Sunday Morning at 7 a.m. Also depicted are high and low pressure centers, wind patterns, and warm and cold flow patterns.

European Model Forecasted Precipitation for Sunday Morning at 7 a.m. Also depicted are high and low pressure centers, wind patterns, and warm and cold flow patterns.

We certainly have an interesting weekend shaping up for us here in Western North Carolina. Conditions will remain calm for the day on Saturday as an area of high pressure moves over the area for the first part of the day. Clouds will likely increase beginning in the early-to-mid afternoon, but we should remain dry through the entirety of the day on Saturday. As we head into Saturday night and Sunday morning, two disturbances, one from the Gulf of Mexico and one coming from the Upper Mississippi Valley will combine over the Eastern United States, providing plenty of moisture for us throughout Super Bowl Sunday. You may be wondering why we'll see this mixed bag of precipitation on Sunday instead of all snow or all rain. One of the main reasons is that the area of high pressure that swings through the Carolinas on Saturday will be moving very quickly, and will be heading well off into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday. For snow or wintry precipitation to occur in our area, we would need the high pressure system to be much stronger and located over the New York or Southern Ontario so we could get a strong flow of polar air into our area. Instead, it looks like the cold air will easily be eroded by the incoming low pressure system, changing any wintry precipitation over to rain by midday Sunday.

European Model 500-millibar height and anomaly for Tuesday, February 6th at 7:00 a.m. This figure depicts how the flow will be "zonal" (mainly west-to-east instead of north-to-south). 

European Model 500-millibar height and anomaly for Tuesday, February 6th at 7:00 a.m. This figure depicts how the flow will be "zonal" (mainly west-to-east instead of north-to-south). 

European Model forecasted Precipitation Type for Tuesday night at 7:00 p.m. Also depicted are surface fronts and predicted track of the area of low pressure. Note that only rain is expected for this event.

European Model forecasted Precipitation Type for Tuesday night at 7:00 p.m. Also depicted are surface fronts and predicted track of the area of low pressure. Note that only rain is expected for this event.

Once we get through Sunday, we will have a few days of calmer weather for the beginning of next week. Conditions will remain cool on Monday as the upper-level trough swings through the Eastern United States. However, when we get into our day on Tuesday, zonal west-southwesterly flow will move into our area, allowing us to have a warmer temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a disturbance will develop over the over the Southern Plains and move over our area on Wednesday. Temperatures will be well above freezing for the entirety of this event, so all rain is expected. Between Sunday's precipitation and Wednesday's, we could easily see 1-2" of precipitation over the next week, which will certainly be well-received. As for the rest of the week, no significant disturbances appear to be on the horizon, and temperatures look to remain relatively close to normal (once we get past this weekend).

European Model forecasted precipitation for the next 7 days.

European Model forecasted precipitation for the next 7 days.

American (GFS) Model forecasted precipitation amounts for the next 7 days.

American (GFS) Model forecasted precipitation amounts for the next 7 days.

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham