Weather Briefing: Friday, January 19th, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: A warm-up for the weekend and a wet start to next week

Climate Prediction Center measurement of the PNA Index with 10 day Forecast. The black line in the middle separates positive values from negative values.

Climate Prediction Center measurement of the PNA Index with 10 day Forecast. The black line in the middle separates positive values from negative values.

After this past week's winter weather and snow, even the most fervent snow-lovers would probably agree that we need a little time to thaw out from the wintry start that we've had to 2018. Thankfully, it finally appears that a significant pattern change is occurring, one that will give us predominantly warmer than normal temperatures for at least the next 7-10 days. For a majority of the winter so far, ridging has occurred over the Western United States and Eastern Pacific Ocean, while troughs have been predominantly located over the central and eastern parts of the United States. One way that this has been observed is through an index called the Pacific North American Oscillation (PNA) Index. When the PNA Index is positive, we typically see colder than normal conditions here in North Carolina. On the other hand, when the PNA Index is negative, we typically see warmer than normal conditions here in North Carolina. Since December 1st, the PNA Index has been positive for approximately 90% of the time. Luckily, the PNA Index (according to model data) is about to shift to a prolonged negative period for the first time since the middle of November.

ECMWF (European) Model Forecasted 500-mb Heights (lines) and Anomaly (shading) for Sunday, 21 January 2018 0000 UTC (Saturday, 7 p.m. EST). This map highlights the pattern shift where warmth will be concentrated in the east and colder temperatures will be concentrated in the west.

ECMWF (European) Model Forecasted 500-mb Heights (lines) and Anomaly (shading) for Sunday, 21 January 2018 0000 UTC (Saturday, 7 p.m. EST). This map highlights the pattern shift where warmth will be concentrated in the east and colder temperatures will be concentrated in the west.

ECMWF Model Forecasted Precipitation for 0000 UTC Tuesday, 23 January with Map Features Analyzed by hand. This map illustrates the setup for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

ECMWF Model Forecasted Precipitation for 0000 UTC Tuesday, 23 January with Map Features Analyzed by hand. This map illustrates the setup for Monday night into Tuesday morning.

This shift is also reflected in the model-forecasted upper-level flow patterns for the weekend and into next week. As we head through the weekend, a ridge will begin to build over the Eastern United States, as temperatures will climb into the 50s and 60s for high temperatures on Saturday and Sunday. An upper-level trough and the surface disturbance associated with it will swing through the area on Monday and Tuesday, creating somewhat of a break in the warming trend. However, this trend looks to continue as we head into the latter half of next week and into the weekend, as models are suggesting that another, possibly more intense ridge may develop for the 26th-28th. The aforementioned surface disturbance predicted to move through our area Monday evening into the early hours of Tuesday morning will bring precipitation that will fall exclusively as rain, the amounts of which are disagreed upon by the models. The European Model wants to paint a wetter picture with most areas seeing 1/2" or more, while the GFS Model tends to keep precipitation amounts closer to 1/4". Regardless, it does look like some part of Monday or Tuesday will be wet. After the rain passes through, it looks like the remainder of next week should be quite calm weather-wise, with predominantly sunny skies and relatively mild temperatures.

ECMWF Model Forecasted Precipitation amounts through 0000 UTC Wednesday, 24 January 2018. 

ECMWF Model Forecasted Precipitation amounts through 0000 UTC Wednesday, 24 January 2018. 

GFS Model Forecasted Precipitation amounts through 0000 UTC Wednesday, 24 January 2018. 

GFS Model Forecasted Precipitation amounts through 0000 UTC Wednesday, 24 January 2018. 

ECMWF Model Forecasted 500-mb Heights (lines) and Anomaly (shading) for 1200 UTC Saturday, 27 January 2018. This map illustrates how another ridge looks likely to build over the Eastern United States late next week.

ECMWF Model Forecasted 500-mb Heights (lines) and Anomaly (shading) for 1200 UTC Saturday, 27 January 2018. This map illustrates how another ridge looks likely to build over the Eastern United States late next week.

Have a great Friday!

Chase Scott Graham

Let the Thaw Begin!

Good Thursday morning everyone! I hope that you all have enjoyed the snow day. The roads are still slick in much of the forecast area, and I don't think we will see a lot of melting today, but whatever does melt will refreeze again tonight, so black ice concerns and snow covered roads will be another problem. 

Recapping the event yesterday, many of you saw more snow that we had forecasted. Our forecast for the Foothills was for 1-3" many locations saw 4-6", More the Western Piedmont areas, our forecast was 2-5" and many locations saw 3-7". So our totals were close but a little underdone. Once we get all the data in we can look into why we saw more snow than expected. My first thoughts are, the models didn't produce the moisture, that this system brought. One other key thought, the system was much slower than the models indicated. So slower storm speed, and more moisture leads to higher totals. 

Courtesy: National Weather Service Greenville - Spartanburg 

Courtesy: National Weather Service Greenville - Spartanburg 

So looking forward, we see another January thaw begin. Not with warm temperatures, but more seasonable temperatures for mid to late January.  High pressure will move into the area creating tranquil weather for Western North Carolina. A small disturbance may pass through the area on Saturday giving us some high to mid level clouds, but that looks to be about it. We will see highs make it to the upper 40's to low 50's Friday. Low to mid 50's Saturday. Mid to Upper 50's on Sunday, a few locations may touch 60 degrees Sunday.  Seasonal like temperatures continue for much of next week.

Weatherbell 

Weatherbell 

Our next Weather maker moves in early next week. A cold front will move through the area starting late Monday and lasting into early Tuesday Morning. It will be warm enough that this event will be all rain.

Weatherbell 

Weatherbell 

 

After the front exits the area, we return to sunny skies and with daytime temps in the 40's & 50's. 

I hope you have a wonderful Thursday. Stay safe on the roadways today and tomorrow morning! 

Scotty Powell

Meteorologist 

Twitter: @ScottyPowell_WX

 

11pm Update Sponsored By CBS Sports Of Morganton

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Good evening.  Here is our update on the impending winter weather event due in our area tonight and Wednesday.  We have bumped totals up and I wouldn't be surprised if there are locally isolated higher numbers than what is currently indicated.  It all depends on where the snow becomes heavy at.  This is moving into the timeframe for nowcasting as we move forward.  We delayed the onset to around midnight but are now holding onto it snowing through atleast Noon Wednesday.  ALSO NOTICE CHANGES TO THE WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND ADVISORIES. 

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Only one thing holding me back from building a snowman.  This will be a powdery snowfall and it will not stick together well. 

Only one thing holding me back from building a snowman.  This will be a powdery snowfall and it will not stick together well. 

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Locally higher amounts possible

Locally higher amounts possible

Monitor social media and updates as they develop through the night.  The next briefing will be at 5:00am Wednesday Morning.

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist

Minor Winter Weather Event To Unfold Across The Area Over Next 24 Hours

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Good morning everyone and I hope you had a restful night and if you work third shift I hope you are getting some rest now.  A dynamic forecast will unfold across our forecast area over the next 24 hours.  Areas along and East of Hwy US 321 and Hwy 16 stand the best chance to see accumulating snow.  Some areas near the East slope of the mountains may not see anything but flurries unless this small band of snow shifts west.  That leads to a low confidence forecast across our western foothill counties.  Along and East of US 321 and Hwy 16 confidence is high that you will atleast see a dusting but some isolated 2 inch totals are possible. 

***WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA FROM 10PM TONIGHT UNTIL NOON WEDNESDAY***

Today will begin with clear and cold conditions.  Ahead of the approaching upper low and cold front temps will rise into the upper 30's to low 40's.  Clouds increase this evening and a few light sprinkles are possible after 5pm.  As the night goes on the atmosphere will slowly moisten allowing for light to moderate snow to develop.  This band of snow will likely only span 100 miles or less and should be quick moving.  The highest snow accumulations will be from Raleigh to the Northeast.  If traveling down to Eastern NC tomorrow you will want to check North Carolina 511 for the latest road details.

Summary:

Precipitation:  Rain changing to snow

Timing:  Sprinkles or light rain develops after 5pm.  Narrow band of snow develops in early morning hours Wednesday and moves East quickly.

Impacts:  Travel Only.... All roads covered in light amounts of snow Wednesday Morning. Skies clear and main roads become passable by afternoon.  Refreeze likely Wednesday Night into Thursday.

Preparedness:  Delay travel Wednesday Morning

Confidence:  Low in Western Foothills and high in Eastern Foothills

Accumulations:  Western Foothills could see no accumulation to one inch.  Eastern areas could see a dusting to two inches.  Two inch amounts will be isolated though.

Next Update:  This Afternoon

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Minor Winter Weather Event Possible Wednesday; Forecast Confidence Remains Low. Brought To You By CBS Sports Of Morganton

 

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Good Sunday Evening Western NC. We do continue us to monitor the possibility for a little bit of snow across the foothills Tuesday Night into Wednesday. I emphasize that currently we are forecasting a minor event. The problem is that it will only take a minor event to present travel problems as the ground will be frozen. Behind this system another shot of arctic air will take hold for Wednesday and Thursday before we finally warm back up for a while, starting at the end of the week.

 

Tuesday an upper level low pressure system will dive Southeast from the Upper Midwest as another trough digs back into the area. This upper low will dive into the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys Tuesday Afternoon. The GFS and Canadian Model are In the most agreement with very little precipitation. Then we have the NAM and Euro on a camping trip together indicating a slightly more robust moisture coming in but still keeping precipitation totals less than a tenth of an inch. The SREF is in the middle playing ground. Models are in great disagreement in the amount of moisture present. That leads to the low confidence on the amount of precipitation. With all of that said we will hold any forecast on accumulations from this forecast package and hold until Monday. There is potential for this event to begin in the busy Wednesday Morning commute creating some travel issues there as temps are in the low 20’s Wednesday Morning, and may not rise at all through the day. It’s something worth watching and certainly not etched in stone.

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Upper air pattern Wednesday Morming 1am

Upper air pattern Thursday 1am

Upper air pattern Thursday 1am

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Upper air trough digging in at 1pm Wednesday. 

Upper air trough digging in at 1pm Wednesday. 

We will have another update Monday Morning. 

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist  

Winter weather potential next week lowering...

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Cold air has invaded the region today and we are on the lookout for the next front to deliver arctic air. An upper trough will dive almost due south from Canada the early part of next week and will help re-enforce a deep trough across the Eastern US by midweek.


GFS 500 mb vorticity (Monday AM)

GFS 500 mb vorticity (Monday AM)

GFS 500 mb Vorticity (Wednesday AM)

GFS 500 mb Vorticity (Wednesday AM)

 

Along this arctic front moisture may try to gather and interact with the cold air in place and behind it. This front will slide though the Carolinas on Tuesday night and late Wednesday, a few snow showers of flurries may accompany it. Today’s model data is not quite as impressed with the moisture levels compared to just 24 hours ago, it shows in both the Operational and Ensemble guidance. Both the GFS and Euro are in decent agreement at this time but there is plenty of time to change.

 

Ensembles show that any snow flurry/shower activity will be light in nature with little to no accumulation.


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European Model Ensemble Meteorgrams

European Model Ensemble Meteorgrams

With tonight’s update the Winter Weather Index will remain at the “Social Media Talk” level which is essentially all we’re looking at here at this point. We do officially as of this forecast package have a chance of light snow showers for each of our counties for Wednesday.

 

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We’ll keep an eye on things in case changes are needed after future model runs.

Saturday Weather briefing: Cold air has returned and will persist...

Boy…that mild weather didn’t last very long, did it?

 

That is probably what you are saying here on this Saturday morning across the Western Carolinas. We broke a nearly two-week long span of abnormally cold weather on Tuesday only for it to truly last about two days. And now a strong storm system has passed on and has brought winter chill back to the region.

 

Gusty northwest winds is going to drive cold arctic air through the region today, hold on to your hats if you’re wearing one. Even with a good amount of sunshine, temperatures are going to struggle today as some may not make it out of the 30’s.

 

Tonight with calming winds and high pressure it will be on the chilly side, temperatures will crash shortly after sunset and bottom out in the upper teens to low 20’s first thing Sunday morning.


NAM 3 km temperatures (Sunday 8 am)

NAM 3 km temperatures (Sunday 8 am)

 

Sunday will feature more of the same, thankfully the wind will have calmed down but its going to be chilly, once again in the 30’s.

 

Martin Luther King Day will feature slightly warmer weather as the region will be under west-southwest flow aloft but another strong short waves in the northern jet stream will drop nearly due south from Plains of Canada into the United States. That short wave will help deliver an even colder air mass for the mid week. It could also lead to some interest weather possibilities.


GFS 500 mb vort (Monday 7 am)

GFS 500 mb vort (Monday 7 am)

 

Monday’s high’s will be in the low/mid 40’s but Tuesday will be trimmed back down again into the 30’s based on the exact timing of the next short wave and invasion of arctic air.

 

That cold will last through the mid week before moderation begins toward the end of the work week…

 

As far as winter weather chances, there is still a lot of uncertainty at this time. We’ll dive more into that in later updates…

 

Have a great Saturday!

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Winter Weather Chances Increase for Next Week.

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We are watching the potential for a winter weather event to affect the area mid week next week. 

Here is our early thinking on this possible event. 

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We will continue to update throughout the weekend. 

Weather Briefing: Friday, January 12th, 2018

North American Mesoscale Model predicted Radar Reflectivity for 12:00 on Friday, January 12th.

North American Mesoscale Model predicted Radar Reflectivity for 12:00 on Friday, January 12th.

HIGHLIGHTS: Rain with a few thunderstorms today, then the cold air returns

North American Mesoscale Model predicted Radar Reflectivity for 5:00 p.m. Friday, January 12th.

North American Mesoscale Model predicted Radar Reflectivity for 5:00 p.m. Friday, January 12th.

North American Mesoscale Model predicted Radar Reflectivity for 7:00 p.m. Friday, January 12th.

North American Mesoscale Model predicted Radar Reflectivity for 7:00 p.m. Friday, January 12th.

If you've been outside this morning, you've likely noticed how warm and moist the air feels. This combination of mild and humid conditions along with a good amount of vertical wind shear will create the possibility of showers and a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon. Widespread severe weather appears to be unlikely at this time; however, this could change, so it is imperative that you stay informed this afternoon. The current setup looks like we will have on and off showers through the early afternoon hours, before the main line of showers and thunderstorms moves into our area. High-resolution, short-range model guidance suggests that a line of showers and thunderstorms will move into our western counties around 2-3 p.m., and will move from southwest to northeast across the area, exiting our eastern counties by around 6-7 p.m. During these four hours, this line of thunderstorms may bring damaging winds, heavy rain, and there is a slight risk that a tornado could spin up in one of these lines. While damaging winds and tornadoes certainly sound threatening, it is the flood risk that you need to take the most seriously, especially if you live in a low-lying area. Please seek higher ground if you live in a flood-prone area and waters begin to rise. Many locations along the mountains have seen a lot of rainfall over the past day or so, so streams, creeks, and rivers will continue to rise regardless of how much rainfall you receive today. If you are driving, do not drive through any fast moving water! You cannot know for certain how deep that water is. Turn around, don't drown!

North American Mesoscale Model predicted rainfall for Friday, January 12th through Saturday, January 13th.

North American Mesoscale Model predicted rainfall for Friday, January 12th through Saturday, January 13th.

Once today's round of showers and storms moves through the area, we will quickly head back into a more winter-like pattern, with temperatures on Saturday likely remaining stuck in the 30s. Lows on Saturday night will fall into the upper 10s and lower 20s, the start of another cold outbreak. Looking at the upcoming synoptic-scale pattern, while there is certainly going to be colder than normal temperatures upcoming, both the extent and duration of this cold outbreak appear to be shorter than the cold outbreak experienced over the past few weeks. As mentioned previously, the first shot of cold air will overspread the area Saturday and will stick with us through the weekend into the early part of next week. There will be a brief moderation of temperatures in the early-to-mid part of next week, before a stronger second shot of cold air moves in for the mid-to-late part of next week. Thankfully, it looks like a pattern change might be in the cards for next weekend, as long-range forecast models suggest that ridging may begin to occur over the eastern United States.

European Model (ECMWF) Forecast of 500-millibar height with 500-millibar height anomalies shaded for Sunday, January 14th. The black line represents the rough cut-off between warm and cool conditions, with blue colors representing cool conditions and red colors representing warm conditions.

European Model (ECMWF) Forecast of 500-millibar height with 500-millibar height anomalies shaded for Sunday, January 14th. The black line represents the rough cut-off between warm and cool conditions, with blue colors representing cool conditions and red colors representing warm conditions.

ECMWF Forecast of 500-millibar height and anomaly for Thursday, January 18th. This represents the "second wave" of cold temperatures.

ECMWF Forecast of 500-millibar height and anomaly for Thursday, January 18th. This represents the "second wave" of cold temperatures.

Have a great Friday and weekend!

Chase Scott Graham

Severe Weather Possible Today

Only in North Carolina can you have a week where you worry about freezing rain at the start of the week, and severe thunderstorms at the end of the week. 

The past few days, we have mentioned that a threat of severe weather was possible in the forecast area towards the end of the week. That threat has increased as new data continues to come out. 

A very strong cold front will push through the area today, giving us some heavy rain, along with the potential for Severe Weather. 

The setup we are looking at today, is what we call a Low Cape/High Shear event. 

Shear is basically the changing of wind directions with height. Tomorrow we will have a strong southerly flow ahead of the cold front. The cold front will be moving in from the North & West, so it will have a NW orientation. So the shear will be good to help storms rotate. Not necessarily rotate tornadic wise, but enough to have some concern about damaging winds, and a slightest chance of a tornado. 

Cape is basically what we call thunderstorm fuel. Just like your car, thunderstorms have to something to keep them going. Although CAPE values are relatively low, they are still showing up, to give us that threat for a few strong to severe storms.  Any sunshine we see on today will increase the CAPE values, so today, the sun is not our friend. 

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   We're starting today off with some scattered showers, we should see a little break between 10 AM - 2 PM. Like I mentioned above, if we see any sunshine, that will further increase our threat for storms. Our temps will start off into the 50's but quickly climb into the low to mid 60's by Noon. 

A squall looks to develop over the South by early afternoon and will steadily march into the Western Carolinas  by mid afternoon. It should be knocking on the door of our western Counties first ( McDowell, Rutherford, Burke and Caldwell) by 3 pm. 

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By 6 pm the most intense part of the line of storms will be moving through Burke, Caldwell, Cleveland, Catawba, Lincoln and Alexander Counties. These areas could see the possibility of damaging winds, heavy rain, and a very slim chance of an isolated tornado. 

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By 8 pm the strongest of the storms are moving out of our forecast area, and all we will have to deal with is leftover rain showers. 

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So in closing here is our break down of the biggest threats from the storm system as it passes through the area. 

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Continue to follow Foothills Weather Network here on our website, as well as on Twitter and Facebook for further updates. 

 

Scotty Powell 

Meteorologist 

Finally Some Rain!

Good Thursday everyone! 

Rain is a good thing! We've been discussing the past arctic blast, but one thing we have lost focus on is the drought conditions. The latest drought monitor was released earlier this morning, and it starting to get concerning for our area. 

Abnormally dry conditions has developed throughout Western North Carolina including our foothill and Western Piedmont communities.  Portions of Eastern Catawba, and Eastern Lincoln Counties are in moderate drought conditions. 

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Thankfully we have some rain on the way. This morning folks in McDowell, Burke, Caldwell, and Rutherford Counties woke up to some rain showers. Folks in our coverage area, hold on because you to will see rain soon. 

A strong flow out of the South and east is developing ahead of another strong arctic cold front. 

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This is allowing for some upslope flow in the foothills. Upslope flow means that air is being forced up and creates additional lift that is needed to produce precipitation. So with the foothills being at the foot of the Appalachians that has created the rainy morning. Rain showers should continue through the rest of the day and slow spread into the Western Piedmont as we see this strong arctic front move closer to the area. 

 

As we head into Friday, rain will pick up in intensity and spread a generous amount over the forecast area. Rainfall accumulations will be on the 1-2" range. I think much of the foothills approach that 2" range by the time the storm winds down. Other areas will see a good dose of rain as well. Here is what the National Weather Service in Greer, SC is thinking. 

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Thunderstorms are also a possibility as the front moves through the area on Friday. As of 11:00 AM Thursday morning the thunderstorm threat remains very low as we look to be wedged in for a bit on Friday, but something we will watch. 

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Once the storm system moves out the area, we could see some wrap around snow showers in the North Carolina Mountains late Friday night into Saturday. 

Cold arctic air returns next week! Not as cold as we were last week, but still well below normal temperatures can be expected. 

Have a great day! 

Scotty Powell

Twitter: @ScottyPowell_WX

Meteorologist 

Dynamic storm system could bring a round of thunderstorms to the area on Friday...

Remember this time last week when the region was under siege from an arctic invasion? Well, one week later and we’re talking about the potential for some thunderstorms…

 

 

A strong surface and upper low will combine forces to bring substantial rainfall to the area but another thing that will be closely monitored will be the potential for thunderstorms, with a few of them on the strong side.

 

 

As of this time the Storm Prediction Center does not have any part of the Western Carolina highlighted for severe weather but it does have a broad area under a general thunderstorm risk…this does include the Foothills and Western Piedmont.


Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook

Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook

 

Friday’s setup is what we note as a high shear/low instability kind of setup. Low pressure will be developing across the Mid South on Friday and then begin to intensify by Friday afternoon as it will lift west of the Appalachians by Friday night…


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The shear parameter looks to occur from roughly late afternoon (4 pm) until around midnight on Friday night. Model data future radar lines up well with that same time frame...so with convection moving in a shear environment and some CAPE available, the chance is there for a the line of showers and storm to produce some gusty winds.


Model projected wind direction (Fri 4 pm) SFC winds Southeast, 850 mb winds South-Southwest

Model projected wind direction (Fri 4 pm) SFC winds Southeast, 850 mb winds South-Southwest

NAM Future Radar (Friday 4 pm)

NAM Future Radar (Friday 4 pm)

NAM Future Radar (Friday 9 pm)

NAM Future Radar (Friday 9 pm)

NAM Future Radar (Saturday 1 am)

NAM Future Radar (Saturday 1 am)

Right now we do not see a substantial risk for severe storms on Friday mainly because of rain-cooled air that will be out ahead of the dynamic storm system but with shear noted and the slightest bit of CAPE on the models, it is something that will be monitored in case the parameters were to increase in future model runs...remain weather aware and we'll have the latest in future updates...

 

 

 

Wednesday Weather Briefing: Soaking rain coming to the Western Carolinas next 48-72 hours, followed by a return to cold

Good Wednesday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont…we are starting an active weather pattern that will first deliver to our region the first good rain event of 2018, followed this weekend by another shot of winter…it is early January afterall!

 

If you  have been out this morning, there is always a notable increase in clouds compared to just this time 24 hours ago. Strong high pressure that brought all the cold arctic air is now out in the Western Atlantic Ocean, the return flow from the southeast is bringing moisture back into the region…early on in the form of clouds but by later tonight that southeast flow will begin to yield some rainfall.


NAM 3km Future Radar: Thursday Midnight (Source: WeatherBell Analytics)

NAM 3km Future Radar: Thursday Midnight (Source: WeatherBell Analytics)

 

 

By Thursday morning a strong moisture pump will have developed across the entire southeast at the low levels of the atmosphere as the high off the Atlantic will then be working in tandem with a developing upper trough that will be located in the Southern Plains, this will transport a strong flow from the Gulf and Atlantic.


Thursday morning 850 mb wind flow (Source: Twister Data)

Thursday morning 850 mb wind flow (Source: Twister Data)

 

Here locally upslope flow will help produce scattered showers throughout the day, best chances will be closer to the Blue Ridge but everyone stands a chance at some rainfall. The abundance of clouds and moisture will also keep temperatures down on Thursday, in the 40’s. Current guidance shows a brief lull in precip late Thursday evening before the next surge in moisture moves in from the southwest.

 

By Friday morning an upper level trough located across the Lower Mississippi River may briefly cut off at the base of the trough and acquire a negative tilt. At the surface, low pressure will be forming over Mississippi and move northeast into the Tennessee Valley. That will keep our region in a southerly flow meaning additional rain chances. And with the dynamics in play, a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for some on Friday as the surface low intensifies, and the main line associated with the trough moves in.


NAM 3km Future Radar 4 pm Friday (Source: WeatherBell Analytics)

NAM 3km Future Radar 4 pm Friday (Source: WeatherBell Analytics)

 

Rainfall will last through Friday evening before tapering off…right now all signs lead to a significant rainfall event with 1-2 inches widespread expected, the latest WPC forecast clearly shows that. But with the prolonged upslope component expected, I think chances are adequate that east and southeast facing slopes could easily exceed the 2 inch amount through Friday evening. That could lead to elevated water levels in small streams across the region.


WPC Forecast Precipitation through Saturday 7 am (Source: WeatherBell Analytics)

WPC Forecast Precipitation through Saturday 7 am (Source: WeatherBell Analytics)

 

By Saturday morning, low pressure will be racing up the Appalachians and colder air will be funneling into the region on northwest winds. There will likely be enough moisture for northwest flow snow showers in the mountains. Here away from the higher elevations it will be generally colder with a mix of sun and clouds and windy conditions.

 

Temperatures will once again be on the downturn on Saturday and last through the early part of next week (30’s, low 40’s in the afternoon, teens/20’s at night)

 

Have a great day!

 


Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Make Sure You Read This Right. Warm Weather Returns Today But More Cold Looms Behind Potential Severe Weather.

Good Tuesday to everyone across the foothills of Western NC. We have broke the chains it feels like but the cold will return tomorrow but not to where we have been earlier in 2018. 

Arctic high pressure is lifting East away from our area returning our coverage area to zonal flow for the day. A short wave will move through the Northeast  this evening and early tonight. Behind it high pressure will start to ridge down the eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. This will develop and in-situ CAD event. Some light drizzle will likely develop after 3am Wednesday Morning and clouds will lock in. The good news is temps will remain above freezing, only dropping back into the upper 30’s. On the flip side though, Wednesday will return to cooler than normal conditions with clouds and drizzle around. Temps only make it back up into the low and mid 40’s for your Wednesday Highs.  This CAD looks to lock in and will keep temps in the low 40’s Wednesday Night into Thursday. The CAD event should start to weaken Thursday as high pressure moves East and out to sea off the New England Coast but by that time we are in a strengthening SE flow ahead of our next cold front. Heavy rain will likely develop Thursday Afternoon and continue into Friday. Temps steadily climb as warm air adverts North from The Gulf Of Mexico. Heavy rainfall with the slight risk of some excessive rainfall continue into Friday.

By 1:00pm Friday low pressure moves to a position near Tuscaloosa Alabama and a QLCS (quasi-linear convective system) develops out ahead of it. Ahead of this line low level sheer will increase as the winds turn with height from Southeast to Southwest. Aloft a low level jet develops introducing speed sheer as mid levels winds increase to 50-70k.  This would indicate the chance for a supercell thunderstorm or two to develop along the convective band and race Northeast, likely arriving in our area predawn hours Saturday. While straight line winds would be of primary concern, isolated tornadoes could also be possible. This is something that we will watch and update over the next couple of days. Additionally torrential rainfall could last over a 12 hour period. By this time the ground will have started to thaw at the surface but still could be frozen a little deeper. One thing working in our favor is that when the ground freezes and thaws it also take some of the moisture with it through evaporation. We will watch this as flash flooding could also be a concern going into Friday Night.

NAM 7pm Saturday

NAM 7pm Saturday

Behind this the trough enters the region for Saturday and Sunday. Some of the global models want to ring out a little moisture behind this system, and if so, temp profiles would likely support the frozen variety of precipitation on Saturday Night. Behind the lifting low pressure winds will shift back to the NW, bringing back the chance of a decent NW flow snow event in the mountains. That’s something we will continue to watch. Temps Saturday and Sunday will drop 15-20° below normal again.

Meteogram Model Indicated Temps Next 10 Days

Meteogram Model Indicated Temps Next 10 Days

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist

Winter Weather Threat has diminished

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Winter Weather threat has come to an end across the Foothills and Western Piedmont today. There is no other way around it but, we had a busted forecast. Drier air was able to evaporate any precipitation that was able to fall. That along with strong warm air advection from the south, that was able to increase temperatures a little warmer that the models had indicated killed the chance for any icy weather. 

 

For the remainder of the afternoon some light rain or drizzle will be around with temps in the mid to upper 30's.  

 

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