50/50 weather weekend for the Western Carolinas...

Good Saturday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont…

 

Quite a bit to go over here in the short term of the forecast and we’ll do that in this discussion. Later on today we will dig into the extended portion of the forecast and the all-important Thanksgiving Holiday.

 

A frontal boundary is steadily marching into the Tennessee Valley as of this morning and will charge eastward across the Appalachians and east of our area by early Sunday morning, This front will be a shot of cold air to the region and it looks to hit-and-hold rather than a quick retreat. The daytime hours of Saturday should not be top bad overall, we will see a gradual increase of clouds and an increase in southwest winds ahead of the front. High’s will top out close to the 60 degree mark.

 

A line of showers and even a few thunderstorms will accompany this front. Our western counties could see a few showers ahead of the main line, those may begin as early as sunset… regardless, conditions will deteriorate as we go through the evening as the front makes its approach. Showers will become more widespread and the wind will increase. Right now frontal passage looks to fall in the range of 10-11 pm in our Western Counties and between 1-2 am east of US 321.

 

Behind the front, winds shift around to the northwest and cold air gradually floods in dropping temperatures down into the 30’s and 40’s by Sunday sunrise. One thing of concern is that post-frontal winds have the potential of getting quite strong in the overnight/early morning hours of Sunday. Winds at about 5000 ft  could be in the 60-70 mph range so the high country looks to have a good chance of a high wind event. Here in our local area those favored sections of the Foothills could see wind gusts exceed 40 mph at times early Sunday and that could bring down a few trees outside the Blue Ridge gusts to 30+ may occur.


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Those northwest winds will help create enough downslope to where Sunday afternoon temperatures may get up close to 50 degrees. That will serve as just a brief interruption in the cold air advection. Once the sun sets on Sunday evening temperatures will begin to drop off in a big way with low’s first thing Monday morning getting at or below freezing for most locations in our coverage. In the High Country temperatures will be much colder (teens and lower 20’s) which for ski country is great news for snow-making going into the Thanksgiving Week.


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The very high peaks may even get some assistance from mother nature as the northwest flow could wring out scattered snow showers. That would be most likely occur early on Sunday.


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With cold air firmly in place the start to Thanksgiving week will be on the chilly side. After the frigid start Monday morning temperatures by afternoon will only reach the lower 50’s area-wide under partly cloudy skies.

 

Have a great day...

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

WEATHER BRIEFING: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 17TH, 2017

HEADLINES: SHOWERS SATURDAY NIGHT, COOLER TO START THE WEEK, A LOOK AHEAD AT THANKSGIVING

We'll have another pleasant day weather-wise on Friday with our next weather disturbance remaining well off to our west. Saturday will likely be a transition day when it comes to the weather, as clouds will build throughout the day and a few showers may form along the mountain ridges in the afternoon. In addition, ahead of the surface cold front that will pass through Sunday morning, southwesterly winds will pick up on Saturday afternoon, and widespread winds of 10-20 mph, with gusts up to 25 mph, will be possible before sunset Saturday. While a fairly strong line a showers associated with the incoming cold front will move into our region late Saturday night, it currently appears that this line will weaken substantially, with our area only seeing a few light to moderate showers. As a result, total precipitation amounts outside of the mountain ridges will likely be less than one-quarter of one inch.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model forecasted wind speed on Saturday afternoon. Blue colors represent wind speeds of around 10-15 mph.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model forecasted wind speed on Saturday afternoon. Blue colors represent wind speeds of around 10-15 mph.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model forecasted precipitation for Saturday night and Sunday morning.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model forecasted precipitation for Saturday night and Sunday morning.

 

Once the cold front passes through early Sunday morning, cold air will start funneling into our area. High temperatures on Sunday will struggle to get out of the 40s, topping out in the low 50s thanks to mostly sunny skies. This cold shot is part of a large-scale trough that will remain in our area through the early part of the week. Temperature moderation will occur Tuesday into Wednesday as southwest winds will once again create mild and dry conditions. At present, it appears that another burst of cold air will come behind a dry cold front on Wednesday night.

European (ECMWF) Model forecasted 500-millibar heights (contours) and anomalies (colors) for Sunday morning.

European (ECMWF) Model forecasted 500-millibar heights (contours) and anomalies (colors) for Sunday morning.

Looking forward to Thanksgiving Day, the dry cold front that moves into our area Wednesday evening will allow for cool conditions on Thursday. A disturbance forming in the Gulf of Mexico will remain well to our south, meaning that dry conditions will also be present for Thanksgiving Day. At present, the forecast models are showing highs in the low 50s under mostly sunny skies.

European (ECMWF) Model forecasted high temperatures for Thanksgiving Day.

European (ECMWF) Model forecasted high temperatures for Thanksgiving Day.

American (GFS) Model forecasted precipitation for Thanksgiving Day.

American (GFS) Model forecasted precipitation for Thanksgiving Day.

Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham 

Wednesday Discussion: Dry pattern continues in the near term but changes abound for the weekend.

Good Wednesday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont…

 

Clouds were very stubborn to burn off yesterday across the region and there is a reason to believe the same thing could happen today. All of that in thanks in part to a light northeast flow with shallow moisture trapped in the lower levels of the atmosphere.

 

For today after a seasonably cold start, we should gradually warm up by later today to around the 50 degree mark. Once the low clouds finally burn off mid and high level clouds will then invade from the west, a weak boundary will move through the Southern Appalachians tonight. Shower chances are very slim with this feature late tonight so don’t expect a whole lot from this feature.

 

Once this front passes, we’ll have gusty northwest winds create a bit of a downslope effect across the Foothills and Western Piedmont for Thursday and Friday. Both afternoons will feature the warmest temperatures over the next seven days, afternoon highs could reach 60 degrees especially east of US 321.

 

By Saturday we will be tracking our next frontal boundary. This one will be more potent both in terms of temperature change behind it along with the precipitation out in front. Saturday could feature a line of showers traversing through the Western Carolinas later in the day and into the evening. Temps on Saturday with the increased clouds will be in the 50’s.

 

Once we get to late Saturday night/early Sunday, much colder air will begin to invade on strong northwest winds. Sunday is looking to be a blustery day with a significant drop-off in daytime temperatures (40’s)…and for our followers in the higher elevations (NW Burke, Caldwell, McDowell) snow flurries/snow showers will be possible. We’ll definitely keep an eye on that over the next few days and update that part of the forecast cycle as we get closer…

 

Have a great day!

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Can Clouds Give Way To Some Sunshine Later Today?Changes Forecast For Weekend. An Interesting Pattern To End November.

Good Tuesday to everyone. I hope your week is off to a smooth start. 

Low clouds have been more stubborn to erode today than I thought they would yesterday at this time. A weak piece of energy is now moving East of the area taking its clouds with it. High pressure is centered over Akron Ohio and driving damp and cool air down the East slopes of the mountains. It’s placed for an ideal setup of cold air damming. That high is transient though and isn’t anchored in place. Goes-East indicates clear skies from Asheville West with the exception being isolated areas along The French Broad where low stratus fog continues to hang tough as of 1:00pm. Goes-East also indicating brightening skies across McDowell and Rutherford Counties but not totally clearing and that trend spreading Northeast. We should see a few peaks of sun this afternoon in most, if not all our forecast counties. Sunset is at 5:21pm this afternoon.  The days continue to get shorter as we head into now, mid to late Fall, marching closer and closer to the Winter Solstice (December 21stat 11:28am).

Cloud cover Futurecast 5pm today

Cloud cover Futurecast 5pm today

Today highs will only muster back to around 50° thanks to the lingering cloud cover.  Tonight low clouds and more fog is likey to redevelop. Fog may be dense in a couple locations. We will watch that trend and monitor with now casting through the night. Temps should be able to drop into the upper 30’s to around 40° for most areas but Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, and Rutherford could have trouble dropping much lower than 40° due to near 100% saturation.

Low cloud cover future cast Wednesday 6:00am 

Low cloud cover future cast Wednesday 6:00am 

Wednesday looks to be another day with a lot of clouds now. We start off with low clouds and fog, as stated above. Temps start out in the upper 30’s to low 40’s depending on how socked in the fog/low stratus becomes.  Another cold front will approach from the Northwest spreading more high clouds into the area. I will keep rain out of the forecast Wednesday though. There will likey still be a few peaks of sun from time to time, albeit brief when it does appear. A line of light showers will approach the mountains during the early nighttime hours Wednesday into Thursday. The mountains will break most of these showers up but one or two could make it into our forecast area late Wednesday Night.

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Futurecast Radar 10:00pm Wednesday Night

 

Thursday Morning skies will begin to clear out with the exception being the mountains where wrap around preipitation will linger behind the front. Thursday will feature a blustery day as the low deepens over Maine and moves up to Greenland. Winds will gust 15-20mph Thursday and in the mountains may gust to 25mph. High temps will be in the low 60’s with mostly clear skies.

 

Peak Wind Gust Thursday

Peak Wind Gust Thursday

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High Temps Thursday Afternoon

 

Friday looks to be a calm collective day with lots of sunshine and high temps in the mid and upper 50’s. High clouds will be streaming in ahead of our next cold front, and this one means business. Clouds start to arrive Friday Afternoon. Low temps Friday Night should bottom out and 40°. Right now it doesn’t look like any rain will affect the area for those Friday Night Football Playoff Games but this could change still. We will narrow that down in later forecast packages. Here come the changes though.

Sauesday should start of dry and mostly cloudy. Breezy conditions will already be present from the SW. The powerhouse cold front approaches our area and spreads light scattered showers into the area by Saturday Evening. I expect the front will stall for a couple hours before it pushes over the Appalachains with the cold air behind it. Winds will have already picked up with gusts up to 50mph outside the mountains. A few gusts may reach 60mph in the higher terrain Saturday Afternoon.

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Wind gusts 1:00pm Saturday 

 

     What’s driving this cold push of air into our area so early in the cold season? It’s the teleconnections. Basically the global teleconnections drive the weather around the globe.  While the teleconnections are a long distance apart from each other they still have a meteorological connection. I like to watch three teleconnections for our weather, especially in the colder months. These phenomenons are part of what drives the polar jet south into The USA. The larger the swing the more affects they will have on our weather.

      The first of the three I will discuss is the Pacific North American (PNA). The PNA is one of the most recognized climate patterns that drive/influence weather in The Northern Hemesphere other than of course the tropics.  The PNA is normally influenced by the Southern Oscillation, which is the second of the three Imlike to watch.  The Southern  Oscillation (ENSO) is the Oscillation we hear so much about in our part of the world. That is the oscillation that we hear called El Niño and La Niña. Deep research has been done and the correlation between the two phenomena’s and the influences between them are definitely there. With a La Niña ENSO the Pacific Waters near the Equator are cooler than normal because the trade winds push the warmer water further West. This means less storminess because of less bouyancy (atmospheric lift) over the Pacific. Moisture isn’t lifted and spread into the atmosphere downwind. Yes, you got it correct! That is why we are normally dryer in the Southeast USA during La Niña years. The PNA is observed in the geopotential 750- 500 millibar (9,800ft - 18,000ft) height fields in the Western and Eastern United States. Here you should see where this is all linked together. A ridge builds over the Western United States when we get a positive PNA. That in turn deepens a trough in The Eastern United States opening the door for cold air to rush in from Siberia. Here is a graphic showing a positive PNA:

 

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Positive PNA (Source: Almanac.com)

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La Niña Weather Winter Months (Source: NOAA) 

The third teleconnections that I like to watch is the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO).   This phenomenon consists of two pressure centers. The first is low pressure and normally it is centered somewhere near Iceland. The second part of this oscillation is the high pressure which is normally centered near the Azores. These pressure centers though, they are forever changing depending on the seasons. They have been measured at other locations in the North Atlantic. The NAO place a huge role into how the weather plays out along The East Coast. When the NAO becomes negative it buckles the jet stream over the Eastern United States, sending cold air south. When the NAO is positive it does the opposite. It allows warmth to spread North. Here is a graphic illustrating a negative NAO pattern:

 

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Blocking ridge causing a negative NAO (Source: NOAA)

 

     Now that you hopefully have a little better understanding of the teleconnections let me dive into the upcoming pattern that is evolving. The PNA is forecast to go positive. At the same time a blocking pattern is developing in The North Atlantic that is going to take the NAO into a negative phase. Both of the oscillations are evolving into what will be a cold end to November across the Eastern United States. Here are the current phases of the NAO, PNA, and ENSO:

 

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NAO currently positive but forecast negative by Nov 17th (European Model) 

 

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PNA is currently negative but is forecast to go positive between 17th and 23rd of November. (European Model) 

 

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NAO currently positive but forecast to be negative by November 17th (Global Forecast System Model) 

 

 

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PNA Currently negative forecast to go positive by November 19th. (Global Forecast System Model) 

ENSO currently weak La Niña.  

ENSO currently weak La Niña.  

 

These are just two models indicating this but all of the global models are picking up on what will be a cold end to November and a cold start to December. We will have to wait and see if we get a storm system to develop. It is certainly possible in this type of pattern. If you plan to travel next week there will be a cold front move through the Eastern US reestablishing the cold air across the area.  Low pressure could affect travel in the Northeast but there is a lot to work out with that forecast yet. Stay tuned.

 

 

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Potential cold front with rain on Thanksgiving Day across the Eastern US. 

 

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Temperatures as compared to average for this time of year. This nap shot is of this coming Monday Nove bet 20th. 

 

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Brief one day warm up ahead of the front Wednesday before Thanksgiving. (Timing could change) Temperatures compared to average for this time of year. 

 

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Another big cold snap in the days following Thanksgiving. (Temps compared to normal)

 

 

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Another warm up around November 27th.  (Temps compared to normal)

 

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Potentially the coldest air of the Fall yet arrives around the last few days of November. (Temps compared to normal) 

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist

Sunny Week To End With A Torrent Of Wind, But Not Rain.

Good Monday Morning! I hope everyone had a great weekend. This week will be much drier than last week. I’m sure that is welcome news to a lot of people. It’s very wet around here and most of our area is anywhere from 7 to 17 inches above normal in the precipitation department. A huge recovery from where we were at just last year. 

Lets talk about the upcoming weather. It will be a week of changes. 

Now that the fog and low stratus have burned off we will feature sunny skies and warmer temps. Most areas will get into the low and mid 60’s. Tonight temps will cool back down and quickly after the sun sets this evening. A slightly drier shot of air will filter in tonight allowing those temps to drop down to around 40° by sunrise Tuesday. 

Tuesday high pressure will be centered to our North. A few models want to briefly and weakly wedge us in Tuesday Afternoon But I believe that the clouds are overdone. We will feature a few more clouds on Tuesday but only partly cloudy. There is the slightest chance that a brief sprinkle gets rung out on the elevated eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Even there, only trace amounts can be forecast. Temps will be cooler though, only topping out in the mid to upper 50’s. 

On Wednesday a cold front will approach our area ahead of the next digging trough. We start out in the mid and upper 30’s. Mostly clear skies will allow temps to rise quick after sunrise.  There may be enough energy from the front to ring out a shower on the western slopes of the Blue Ridge by Wednesday night but we are staying dry across our forecast area.  High temps Wednesday will be in the mid 50’s again.

Thursday will be a calm day with ample sun and temps warming back into the 60’s. 

Our current 7 day has rain showers arriving  Friday but we are going to back those showers and the cold front’s arrival back to Saturday. That should make for a great Friday with temps gettin up to around 70°. A few locations may tickle the low 70°’s as warm air advects North ahead of Saturday’s front.

The cold front arrives Saturday with a vast. Short lived showers will give way to high winds across the area. It appears winds may reach 65-70 mph across the higher elevations of the mountains. Down across our forecast area we will go conservative with winds gusting to 50mph at times, especially Saturday Afternoon. This is in response of what looks to be a very strong area of low pressure deepening over the Great Lakes and then moving East. Winds will be gusty for about 12-16 hours it looks like right now. That low drags the cold front and showers through on Saturday and behind it that torrent of wind funnels in much colder weather for the end of the forecast period. 

 

 

Its hard to believe but next week is Thanksgiving and the busiest travel time of the year. Next week looks cold with a brief warm up mid week. Then another amplified cold front approaches for Thanksgiving bringing in temps behind it that could be 20-30° below average. Our average high is 61-64° next week so you can do the math. Lots of time to work those forecast details out. 

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist  

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Potential winds late this week. (Days across bottom of chart. MPH up left axis.) 

 

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Model precipitation and temps the next 10 days. 

Sunny skies ahead this week!

For those who feel gloomy from the chilly temperatures and cloudy days you're in luck after today! Mostly sunny skies and more seasonable temperatures are in the forecast nearly every day this week. 

Today we have temperatures starting around the freezing mark that will climb up to the upper 40's. Mostly cloudy skies and precipitation opportunities of around 30% bringing the risk of some freezing rain in the cooler hours, but no snow as a trough slides into the area. Overnight conditions won't get as chilly going into Monday as nighttime cloud coverage will hinder the progression of the nightly low. Expect your work week to start off in the upper 30's on Monday morning and in the upper 50's, possibly 60 degrees for Monday day as we have the sunshine coming in full blast! Tuesday and Wednesday conditions will be a rinse, wash repeat of Monday with plenty of sunshine and similar temperatures as a high pressure will dominate the region at that time. On Wednesday night going into Thursday a dry warm front associated with an upper level trough centered near the US and Canadian border will progress through the area bumping the temperatures over the 60 degree mark for the daily high, the 40's for the nightly lows, and still plenty of sun. Friday will be a repeat of Thursday temperature condition wise, but on Friday evening we see increasing cloud coverage as a cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level trough bursts right over the Appalachians in the overnight hours. Current model runs have the jet maximum over the area which brings wind risks to mind as well as precipitation opportunities although the confidence on the latter subject is moderately low at this time. Saturday and Sunday will be reminiscent of what we were feeling in the earlier part of the week with temps in the 50's and 30's with Sunday being mostly sunny again, but Saturday has the opportunity for early diurnal cloud coverage.  

Thank you for reading and have a wonderful week.

Chilly high pressure has settled in for Saturday, return flow aloft could impact late weekend weather

Good Saturday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont…

 

High pressure at the surface is in place across the region but aloft we continue to have a fast westerly flow moving through the Southeast US. This combination of factors at differing layers of the atmosphere is going to lead to a changeable forecast over the next 48 hours. The first half of the weekend looks to be pretty cut-and dry. Strong high pressure over Southern Ontario has dug itself southward into the Carolinas bringing initially a (dry) cold air damming episode to the area. The result is a chilly Saturday for everyone.

 

 After starting the morning in the upper 20’s and low 30’s we will struggle to make a up a whole lot of ground today as afternoon temperatures will only reach the mid to upper 40’s under mostly sunny conditions.


Computer Model Projected high temperatures (today)

Computer Model Projected high temperatures (today)

 

With few clouds and low dewpoints in place temperatures will crash pretty fast after sunset getting back down at or below the freezing mark for low’s. Infact those low temps could occur at or just after midnight.

 

As we get into the overnight hours the flow in the mid levels will begin to override the surface cold pool with some moisture and by Sunday daybreak a rapid increase in clouds and shallow moisture is expected.

 

Its at this point where the Sunday forecast begins to have a few question marks. First off, just how much moisture will be streaming in at the mid levels? Computer model guidance over the past 24+ hours have increased its moisture output now to the point that the models are spitting out light rainfall amounts across the Western Carolinas by morning and lasting through the afternoon hours.


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This development in the guidance is very significant in that with cold dry air established, our “dry wedge” may evolve into an “in-situ wedge” and that could mean a damp and chilly Sunday  for the region. We are currently forecasting mid/upper 40’s for Sunday’s high temperatures but that could end up being conservative at this point if the recent guidance trends hold firm. We will definitely keep an eye on this development through the rest of the day.

 

The good thing is that any possible in-situ wedge should break down either late Sunday night or Monday morning yielding milder conditions for early next week.

 

Daytime highs Monday and Tuesday will be in the upper 50’s to around 60 for both afternoons with 40’s at night. By the middle part of next week a zonal flow will take over a majority of the Continental US meaning a return to milder conditions with temperatures jumping back up into the 60’s for everyone with partly cloudy skies.

Have a great day!

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Cool and (Mostly) Dry Conditions Ahead

Now that the disturbance that has dominated our weather for the past four days has moved through the area, cool and crisp air is moving into our area for the weekend. Additionally, post-frontal subsidence will allow for mostly clear conditions on Friday and Saturday. The peak of cold-air intrusion will occur Friday night into Saturday, as lows may reach the mid-20s in some areas early Saturday morning.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model forecasted temperature, 7:00 a.m., Saturday, 11 November 2017. 

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model forecasted temperature, 7:00 a.m., Saturday, 11 November 2017. 

Temperatures will start to modify on Sunday, as extra moisture will start to move into the area. Currently, there appears to be a shortwave that will swing down from the Northern Great Plains into our area Sunday afternoon through Monday morning. At this time, while there will be significant cloud cover on Sunday into Monday morning, it does not look like precipitation will move into our area.

Forecasted 500-hPa heights and Cyclonic Vorticity for 7 p.m., Sunday, 12 November 2017. The orange colors represent the location of the shortwave trough.

Forecasted 500-hPa heights and Cyclonic Vorticity for 7 p.m., Sunday, 12 November 2017. The orange colors represent the location of the shortwave trough.

 

This shortwave will be the first in what appears to be a series of troughs that will swing through our area over the next week to ten days. Before the next trough swings through later next week, temperatures will continue to warm through the early part of next week, returning to near-normal levels by the middle of next week. Conditions look to remain dry and sunny at least through the middle to end of next week.

This map shows the path of various troughs that will swing through our area over the next week.

This map shows the path of various troughs that will swing through our area over the next week.

Have a great Friday!

Chase Scott Graham

Its a Wash, Rinse, Repeat Weather Pattern: rain, clouds and bouts of cold...

Good Wednesday to everyone…an unsettled weather pattern continues today across the Western Carolinas.

 

Cold air damming settled in overnight and is firmly in place across the region here at the late morning hours. Temperatures after being in the upper 50’s and lower 60’s just 24 hours ago are a solid 15+ degrees colder.


Wednesday 10 am Regional Temperatures

Wednesday 10 am Regional Temperatures

 

For the rest of today clouds, mist and drizzle will continue as warm air is overriding this cold pool. Expect little change in temperatures the rest of the day, everyone should remain in the 40’s.

 

Another in a long line of disturbances in the jet stream will traverse the southland late tonight and early Thursday morning. This will help continue the overrunning process overhead and models are responding by having another round of light showers move through overnight…amounts shouldn’t be heavy but it will work to help sustain the CAD. As a result Thursday will likely remain cloudy for most areas slowly moderating temperatures.


HRRR Model Future Radar (2 am Thursday)

HRRR Model Future Radar (2 am Thursday)

 

We then shift our attention to the next frontal boundary that will approach on Friday and deliver a shot of winter-like cold to the region…thanks in part to a massive surface high that will slide across the Great Lakes Region and into the Northeast…

 

Friday will feature partly cloudy skies and high’s in the 50’s but by first thing Saturday morning a 1037 mb surface high will be located over Southern Ontario with the cold air funneling southward. Temperatures will really tank by Saturday morning bottoming out in the upper 20’s for everyone bringing a hard freeze to the region.
 


Model depicted Surface Pressures (7 am Saturday)

Model depicted Surface Pressures (7 am Saturday)

Model Projected Temperatures (7 am Saturday)

Model Projected Temperatures (7 am Saturday)

Clouds, clouds, and more clouds. Rainy week ahead!

Good Monday afternoon to you and yours!

It's a cloudy and rainy start to our work week as a cold front moves in and begins to stall over the area from today through Thursday evening. With this front we can expect plenty of rainfall during this time with a slight chance of lightning on Tuesday afternoon due to increased CAPE values. We can also expect cooler than seasonal temperatures start to settle in Tuesday night starting with overnight lows in the upper 40's and Wednesday's high in the low 50's. We will start to see this front clear out of the area on Thursday evening which will bring diminishing precipitation probabilities and cloud coverage...for a couple of days. Friday and Saturday will be mostly sunny days, but they will continue to be below climo with highs in the 50's and lows in the 30's. Late Saturday evening into early Sunday we will see increasing clouds as a backdoor cold front will progress in from the northeast and settle in a classical Cold Air Damming event for Sunday and Monday with ample opportunity for rain as we can see a reasonable moisture profile. At this time we are unsure on when this CAD will have opportunity to break, but we know the start to next week will maintain theme to this week. 

Thank you for reading! Have a blessed Monday!

Sunshine A Hot Commodity This Week But If You Like Clouds, Rejoice.

Good Sunday Evening to you and I hope your weekend went well. It was dreary outside of the mountains. Our forecast area picked up on good rainfall Saturday. 1-4 inches of rain fell throughout the 8 county area. 

This week looks like it will be the week that keeps on giving too. Low clouds and fog dominated the forecast area today. Those clouds lead into tonight as well. In fact it looks like a Dense Fog Advisory will be needed as we head toward the morning timeframe. Drizzle has picked up over the last two hours since sunset. That also looks like it will follow us through the night. Unlike last Fall, no drought across Western NC this year. 

As we head into Monday a cold front will approach from the NW. this front should allow this low stratus fog to mix out after sunrise Monday. By that time clouds will begin filtering in from the Northwest. Showers are to follow too. So expect a mostly cloudy Monday with scattered showers. There appears to be enough CAPE (Convective Available Potentially Energy) to produce an isolated stronger storms across the mountains late Monday Morning/Early Monday Afternoon. With the way things look Monday I don’t think any thunder will translate East of the Blue Ridge. If more sun sneaks out Monday Morning then we will have to revisit the thunder chance across the Foothills. I doubt that happens though. Scattered showers remain in the area through Monday Night. Temps Monday should add about 10 degrees to Sunday’s numbers, mid to upper 60’s.

 That aforementioned cold front will stall across our area. Since it does expect more clouds and times of showers and rain through Thursday thanks to short waves moving along the front. Exact timing of those short waves will be updated as we get closer to the Tuesday-Thursday timeframe. High temps should reach the mid and upper 60’s all three days.

Great uncertainty exists Friday - Sunday as it looks like a very strong high pressure could build over Quebec, funneling cold air down the Eastern slopes of the mountains. It looks cloudy and drizzly as well. This air will likely be very cold and there could be precipitation type issues Saturday. It’s something that we will have to watch close. Normal high temps are in the mid 60’s this time of year. We expect our highs for the Friday - Sunday will Be atleast a category below normal.  

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist  

Saturday Weather Discussion: Pattern ripe for multiple cold air damming episodes with mild in-between

Good Saturday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont. It’s the first weekend in the month of November and you wouldn’t know it by the weather around here.

 

Yesterday temperatures spiked up into the low 80’s (upper 70’s along Blue Ridge) and we had evening and overnight showers and thunderstorms that impacted some outdoor events across the region. Today is going to be a total 180 degree flip in the weather as a cold air damming event is underway.

 

Temperatures for Saturday likely occurred just after midnight. Northeast winds are kicking in and will sustain themselves through the day and will bring colder air into the Western Carolinas. Expect temperatures to slowly fall through the day with 50’s likely along and north of Interstate 40, a few low 60’s may survive in southern parts of the viewing area, at least through the early afternoon. Those locations would include towns/communities like Cliffside, Earl and Grover. With cold air damming in place a few bouts of light drizzle or mist is possible as well.


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The cold air damming will continue through tonight and the early hours of Sunday before mild weather tries to return on veering winds to the south and south east. Sunday’s readings may get back up into the 70’s.

 

This all leads into a mild start to the upcoming work week as we have a definite battle ground between ridging aloft in the Southern tier of the US and colder air bottled up in Canada. There is little in the way of amplification in the flow right now which is a bit unusual for this time of the year, our part of the world will be dominated in fast WSW flow through the first half of next week.

 

One thing that will be worth monitoring is deep and strong surface high pressure’s dropping down from Canada on the southern edge of the colder heights located in Canada and far northern tier of the Continental US. We could potentially see more cold air damming events later in the week from those late next week.


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All in all a true battleground is setting up across the heart of the country between the cold of winter and the resistance from warmer weather.

FORECAST DISCUSSION: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD, 2017

SECTION 1: AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

Before we get into the challenging forecast for Saturday, Friday will be a warm and mostly sunny day. Southwest flow will allow for temperatures to soar well above average, into the middle and upper 70s. By Friday evening, some clouds will begin to move into the area as a weak disturbance moves into the area.

On Saturday, the great forecast challenge is how strong the Cold-Air Damming will be. The Global Forecast Models like the GFS and the European Model have suggested a strong cold-air damming setup, keeping temperatures in the 50s during the day on Saturday. Mesoscale models over the past few days have suggested that the cold air will not move as far south, keeping southern areas in the mid-to-upper 60s while northern areas remain in the upper 50s. However, this morning's suite of models have moved closer to the solution proposed by the global models, suggesting that temperatures will remain cool on Saturday. Regardless, cloud cover will be fairly widespread during the day Saturday, and there will be a few isolated showers scattered about the area.

On Sunday, there is some suggestion that the Cold-Air Damming setup could stick around in a weakened form, possibly keeping temperatures down again during the afternoon. Cloud cover should remain fairly thick on Sunday, with a few peeks of sunshine possible in the afternoon.

Image 1. European Model Forecasted Temperatures for 2 p.m. Saturday.

Image 1. European Model Forecasted Temperatures for 2 p.m. Saturday.

Image 2. North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model Forecasted temperatures for 2 p.m. Saturday.

Image 2. North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model Forecasted temperatures for 2 p.m. Saturday.

SECTION 2: A WARM START TO THE WEEK, WITH A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN

Looking forward to the beginning of next week, southwest flow will begin to dominate again as a ridge of high pressure moves over the area for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be above normal, with high temperatures likely to stay in the mid-70s on Monday and Tuesday. By the middle of the week, a cold front looks likely to drop out of the Ohio Valley, bringing a significant chance of rain and cooler temperatures with it. There is some model disagreement as to how quickly this system will move through the area, with the GFS Model showing a faster system and the European Model showing a slower system. While this cold shot should not be as strong as the most recent cool down, further troughing (allowing cold air) appears likely as we head into the 10-14 day time frame. 

Image 3. GFS Forecasted 500-millibar height anomalies for Wednesday Morning. Red colors represent warmer temperatures while Blue colors represent cooler temperatures.

Image 3. GFS Forecasted 500-millibar height anomalies for Wednesday Morning. Red colors represent warmer temperatures while Blue colors represent cooler temperatures.

Image 4. ECMWF Forecasted 500-millibar height anomaly for Wednesday evening. Blue colors represent cooler temperatures while Orange colors represent warmer temperatures.

Image 4. ECMWF Forecasted 500-millibar height anomaly for Wednesday evening. Blue colors represent cooler temperatures while Orange colors represent warmer temperatures.

Image 5. European Model Forecasted 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Image 5. European Model Forecasted 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham

Weekend Uncertainty

Good Thursday everyone! Hopefully your day has been good so far! 

Not to much to talk about in the weather world today. A mix of sun and clouds expected for your Thursday as we warm into the upper 60's to low 70's. 

Friday is going to be very warm. Southwest flow sets up, that is a blow torch wind for us, so we will see temperatures sky rocket into the upper 70's to low 80's. A frontal passage will be close to the area so a few showers and even a thunderstorm is possible late in the day into the evening. 

This front will bring some uncertainty to the weekend forecast. As high pressure continues to move over portions of Canada and the Northeast that will allow our winds to shift to the Northeast. If you've lived here any length of time you know a Northeast flow brings us wedge like conditions. So forecast models are having a difficult time determining where this backdoor front will stall out. In the latest runs of the GFS and Euro model it shows the front stalling out along the interstate 40 corridor. This will likely give us a cloudy, cool, and even some light rain along and north of 40. 

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For Sunday it looks like the Southerly winds will prevail, and start to break down the wedge. But again if you've lived here any length of time, you know wedges are hard to break down once they establish themselves. 

By the start of next week, more warm weather continues as highs once again make a run into the low to mid 70's. 

We remain fairly dry around here for the next week after a fairly wet October. Many locations expect to see less than an inch of rain through the next week. 

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Looking long term, their could be a change in the weather pattern, but we will save that for another day! 

 

Have a great day! 

Scotty Powell 

Meteorologist 

Twitter: @ScottyPowell_WX

October 2017, A Look Back: Flooding, Severe Weather, Tornadoes all left an impact on the region

October is the beginning of the fall season for us here in the Foothills and Western Piedmont, a season that can give us all varieties of weather.  Without a doubt this past month didn’t fail in that respect as October 2017 was definitely one month that we’ll never forget as the Western Carolinas witnessed everything from a late season tropical system, to a classic autumn flash flood/severe weather outbreak to the first frost and freeze of the cold season.

 

The two big stories of the month in general was the above normal rainfall that impacted our coverage area along with two bouts of severe weather that included a pair of record breaking tornado outbreaks in this region for this time of the year.

 

First off heavy rainfall impacted all eight counties of the coverage area at some point during the month. The first bout of heavy rain was at a result of the remnants of Hurricane Nate back on October 8th. Thankfully the rainfall totals with Nate were not excessive in nature as the region has been dry for an extended period of time leading up to the event. That allowed the majority of the water to flow through local river basins without causing much in the way of danger.

 

 Not the same could be said for our second heavy rain event. In some locations the rainfall amounts were excessive and resulted in flash flooding. The heavy rains that fell on October 23rd  caused flash flooding/landslides in sections of Burke, McDowell and Rutherford Counties on what was already fairly saturated grounds after heavy rains just two weeks prior.

 

 Urban Flooding in Lenoir (Caldwell County): Viewer Submitted

 Urban Flooding in Lenoir (Caldwell County): Viewer Submitted


Flash Flooding- Roland's Chapel Dr (McDowell County) Source: McDowell Emergency Management

Flash Flooding- Roland's Chapel Dr (McDowell County) Source: McDowell Emergency Management


 

A third rain event in the range of 1-2+ inches occurred just this past weekend along the eastern slopes of the mountain. Like the first rainfall event it did not result in much flooding.

 

 The hardest hit spots in October as a whole were in the foothills and along the immediate Blue Ridge where three separate heavy rainfall events overlapped. A few localized spots picked up 2x-3x normal rainfall amounts for the month of October, one of the driest months on average during the year. Here is a list of totals based off COOP stations and CoCoRaHS gauges. All locations in the coverage area finished at or above normal for the month.


 

McDowell County:

Marion: 11.36 inches (3.5 avg)

Pleasant Gardens: 10.87 inches (3.5 avg)

 

Rutherford County:

Lake Lure: 10.57 inches (4.1 avg)

Forest City: 5.86 inches (3.77 avg)

 

 

Caldwell County:

Lenoir: 8.81 inches (3.4 avg)

 

Burke County:

Morganton: 7.2 inches (3.54)

 

Catawba County:

Hickory Regional Apt: 5.56 inches (3.35 avg)

 

Lincoln County:

Lincolnton: 4.87 inches (4.14 avg)

 

Cleveland County:

Shelby: 4.42 inches (3.8 avg)


The above average rainfall in October is a stark change to the past couple years where dry fall weather yielded a very dangerous forest fire season across the Western Carolinas...


 

The second and bigger story from the month of October was the two severe weather outbreaks that occurred in the month. It was truly a historic month for severe weather and specifically tornadoes.

 

It all started on the 8th as Nate was rapidly pulling north through the Southeast US. Computer models out ahead of the storm a couple days honed in with the potential of severe weather and possible tornadoes as the outer bands of Nate moved in from the southwest during the afternoon of the 8th and lasted through the night. The circulation of Nate provided a natural shear mechanism as it moved into the region but it was an alarming amount of CAPE (Convective Atmospheric Potential Energy) or “thunderstorm fuel” that really got our attention as it showed up on model data about 36 hours prior to event.


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Once that all came together, a tornado outbreak ensued across the Western Carolinas. A corridor just east of the immediate Blue Ridge was impacted on that day. The first tornado Warning of the day occurred just north of Rutherfordton and extended to just southeast of Marion in the early afternoon. There was no confirmation of a tornado with that cell but there was definite rotation noted per radar images and spotter reports.


Doppler Radar Velocity image, Northern Rutherford County

Doppler Radar Velocity image, Northern Rutherford County

Warned storm  as it entered Vein Mountain Community (McDowell County) Credit: Seth Bartlett-FWN Storm Spotter

Warned storm  as it entered Vein Mountain Community (McDowell County) Credit: Seth Bartlett-FWN Storm Spotter

 

 Shortly after that the worst action began to form out ahead where the models prior to the event showed the highest CAPE values. By mid/late afternoon rotating thunderstorms moved from Upstate South Carolina northeast into sections of Cleveland, Burke and Caldwell Counties. Along that corridor a handful of tornadoes did touch down on that afternoon, three of them in fact. The worst being an EF-1 in Eastern Burke and Southern/Eastern Caldwell Counties causing quite a bit of damage in the Connelly Springs, Lake Rhodhiss, Granite Falls, and Sawmills Communities. This storm continued moving northeast just to the east of Lenoir eventually entering into Wilkes County.


Doppler Radar Velocity Images (4:58 pm)

Doppler Radar Velocity Images (4:58 pm)

Doppler Radar Velocity Image (5:26 pm)

Doppler Radar Velocity Image (5:26 pm)

Doppler Radar Velocity Images (5:58 pm)

Doppler Radar Velocity Images (5:58 pm)

 

Even after the main rotating cells moved outside of the coverage area, strong winds aloft moved through creating additional issues with downed trees and power lines. Once Nate moved through, three tornadoes were confirmed in our coverage area and nine total in the Carolinas extending from near Spartanburg and Laurens SC to the NC/VA border…

 

The extent of a severe weather event was record breaking in that for Burke, Caldwell and Cleveland Counties those warned cells were the first recorded tornadoes on record in the month of October in modern record keeping ( dated back to 1950’s) that in itself was impressive.

 

 This already significant event shockingly was topped by something even more damaging two weeks later. A very deep trough and closed upper low moved through the Southland on the weekend prior to the 23rd before slowly lifting into the Mid-Atlantic and New England. The trough that briefly went “negative tilt” along with no surface wedging feature evident once again put the region under a high shear environment with enough CAPE in place to allow everything to come in place for another severe weather outbreak.

 

By mid afternoon of the 23rd action was already starting to fire up as a line of severe thunderstorms and heavy rain were moving through the Upstate. That line advanced into the Western Piedmont and Foothills. Once all was said and done Monday evening, most of those locations impacted by the November 8th severe weather was once again ground zero. This time around the region was delivered an even harder hit as a total of four confirmed tornadoes touched down in the coverage area with several more in surrounding areas of the Western Carolinas.

Cleveland County alone were involved with three separate confirmations, the first being an EF-2 that entered into the Southwest corner from Cherokee County SC lifting less than two miles inside of the NC/SC border. The second was a brief EF-1 that entered from Southeast Rutherford County to a position just east of Polkville in Upper Cleveland. The third twister which was a re-generation of the first supercell was an EF-1 that begin near Lawndale and skirted northeast through Upper Cleveland County and into Southwest Catawba County.

 

The images posted below indicate the broad rotation that was involved with this feature. Multiple vortices were able to develop among the main mesoscale feature. The multi-vortex facet began back across Upstate South Carolina as Spartanburg County was hit by both areas of rotation including the city of Spartanburg where EF-2 damage was confirmed along Business 85.


Doppler Radar Velocity Images 3:34 pm

Doppler Radar Velocity Images 3:34 pm

Doppler Radar Velocity Image (4:03 pm)

Doppler Radar Velocity Image (4:03 pm)

 

It was during the late afternoon hours of the 23rd where things got more intense as that meso approached the I-40 Coridoor. Damage reports began to come in just prior to 5 pm in the Longview area of far Western Catawba County from this cell. Then reports of damage at Hickory Regional Airport and LP Frans Stadium trickled in indicating clearly that another tornado had touched down.



The only caveat to this feature is that the obvious tornado was also surrounded by a surge of straight-line winds that doppler radar and survey crews estimated reached in excess of 100 mph at times. This corridor of damage impacted Eastern Burke, Western/Central Catawba, most of Caldwell and Alexander Counties. Our weather team along with other survey crews were able to confirm  EF-2 damage with this re-generation that continued northward into Wilkes County and eventually into Southwest Virginia before finally dissipating later in the evening.

Doppler Radar Velocity Images 4:25 pm

Doppler Radar Velocity Images 4:25 pm

Doppler Radar Velocity Images (4:35 pm)

Doppler Radar Velocity Images (4:35 pm)

Doppler Radar Velocity Images (4:52 pm)

Doppler Radar Velocity Images (4:52 pm)

 

The similarities in storm tracks with both severe weather events last month were eerie. The best news that we can report is due to proper warning notifications there were very minimal number of injuries as a direct result of the storm and no direct fatalities.

 

The combination of the two outbreaks in October were quite remarkable…posted below are some additional images and information from the separate events.


TORList.PNG
TOR List 2.PNG
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TOR Warnings.PNG

The month of October ended with a couple shots of cold Canadian air with the stoutest blast occurring just 48 hours ago with freezing temperatures in the lower elevations of Western North Carolina for the first time helping end the growing season for some. And for our friends in the High Country the first accumulating northwest flow snow event started Sunday and lasted into the early hours of Monday morning laying down a dusting in some locations with a couple inches along the high peaks above 5000 ft.

 

All in all this past month was very active in terms of weather of many different types across the Western Carolinas…rain, wind, flooding, tornadoes, cold.

 

 Could this extremely variable pattern continue into November? Only time will tell…

Wednesday Weather Briefing: November begins on a mild note...

Good Wednesday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont and happy first day of November…

 

We are in the heart of the autumn season but a taste of Indian Summer looks to be impacting the region over the next few days. Infact we had a small dose of it yesterday as southwest winds helped blowtorch us into the low 70’s. Today we are looking at a similar type setup across the Western Carolinas as there will be southerly winds ahead of a weak disturbance in the upper level flow. The only difference today is that a few clouds will filter through along the fast jet stream, so therefor we are forecasting just slightly cooler values, near the 70 degree mark.

 

After a relatively mild evening tonight (low/mid 50’s) the stage for Thursday will be set again with southerly winds at the surface and upper level winds quickly moving across the southern tier of the country. Thursday high’s will be close to 70 degrees.

 

 On Friday a weak cold front will begin to approach the Carolinas, out ahead of the front expect additional warm air to move into the region. Friday could turn out to be quite warm as mid to upper 70’s are being forecasted on gusty southwest winds and increasing clouds.


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This front looks to be moisture starved for most, shower chances if they do occur will be highest on Friday evening through the pre-daylight hours of Saturday.

 

 

Speaking of Saturday and the weekend, some questions remain in regards to the forecast. After the frontal passage late Friday night, a 1034 mb high pressure centered over Ontario will begin to orient itself in a damming configuration down the eastern slopes of the Appalachians.


1237.PNG

 

 The exact strength and location of the high will have an influence on exactly how much of a cooler air mass penetrates down into the Carolinas. One thing is for sure, it will be cooler than the previous 24 hours and likely more in the way of clouds on the northeast flow but exact temps are still up in the air…stay tuned for updated forecasts over the next couple days as we get closer to the weekend.

 

Have a great day!

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Spooky Tuesday To You! Trick Or Treat Forecast Features Treats For Some And Tricky For Others

 Cool and very dry high pressure continues to be in charge of our weather today. For all you ghosts and goblins out there tonight will feature dry conditions and temps falling back to around 60-65 by 6:00pm tonight. By 9:00the temps will be down into the 50’s with a few western locations dipping into the upper 40’s. That’s very seasonable though and great weather. Just be safe and have a great time.

 

Tonight an upper level trough will move Southeast from the upper Midwest but this trough doesn’t look like it will be able to swing the cold front through the area. Intead it gets hung up on the Western side of The Appalachian Mountain Range. A few more high clouds will build into the area tomorrow and even in the mountains it will remain dry. High temps will reach the mid and upper 70’s.  Towards sunset Wednesday a shower could affect the mountains but those will not be able to move East from there. That spells dry weather for the remainder of the week with moderating temps and a few high clouds here and there.

 

Friday looks to be the warmest of the days, in the upper 70’s. Those temps could start to fall very late Friday as a back door cold front moves in. This sets the stage for a cloudy and cooler Saturday with temps being held back to normal levels, in the 60’s. Periods of light rain and drizzle are likely Saturday as a strong ridge of high pressure moves over SE Canada. Will feature rain chances 20-30% east of the Blue Ridge and 30-40% right along the Eastern Slopes. Unfortunately it doesn’t appear that the high pressure over Canada will be in a hurry to move out. So we hold those rain chances and cooler weather into the early part of next week.

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist

Sunday Discussion, warm to cold to warm again...

What is fall in North Carolina without a chance of snow and 70 degrees all in one week? That's right. We'll end October off with some chilling temperatures, but the start to November will have you keeping out those summer clothes for just a bit longer. 

Last night a cold front blew in bringing in some heavy rains, a bit of lightning, sightings of (short lived) snow in the high country, and of course much colder temperatures. Overnight low brought us down to the upper 40's, but our temperatures aren't expected to climb but a few degrees higher for the daytime high despite the gradual clearing. Going into Monday morning is when our late October chill will be in full effect as the temperature will drop down to freezing and maybe below for our forecasting region. Thanks to that freeze we won't see Monday's high climb out of the 50's for the day.

Just as quickly as the cold came in we will have warmer air will pool in behind it with the sly slide of a warm front late Wednesday. Throughout the week our temperatures will raise a few degrees day by day until we see the low 70's reappear for Friday. At this point we will have solid southerly flow with all of the humidity that comes with it and Saturday and Sunday will have a chance of some diurnal showers thanks to this flux. 

At this point we're unsure when the cold will return, but we're just as hopeful as you!

Until then!

Next cold front to slam through today, much colder weather coming!

Good Saturday to everyone…

 

A cold front is going to cross the Western Carolinas over the next 24 hours bringing huge changes to the weather. Today we are ahead of the front, clouds will be on the increase and by late in the day a line of showers and even a couple thunderstorms will slide through both the Foothills and Western Piedmont. Temperatures this afternoon will top out well into the 60’s…the increase in clouds will prevent widespread 70’s

 

The one good part in all of this is that most of the precipitation will occur in the night time hours of Saturday night/early Sunday morning so the impact on outdoor activities will be minimal. Showers will last through a good part of he night with rainfall totals that will average ½ inch to 1 inch.

 

The front will pass through early Sunday morning and once everything clears, northwest winds will begin to howl. Sunday at this point is looking to be a very chilly day. Do not be surprised if Sunday’s recorded high’s (Upper 40’s to lower 50’s) may occur around 12:01 am. The daylight hours of Sunday will be dominated by cold air be advected in with partly sunny conditions.

 

This new surge of cold will lead to the potential of a widespread heavy front Monday morning and possibly a light freeze in some of those usual sheltered valleys. Temperatures will be in the low 30’s when you head to work or school Monday morning.

 

The early part of next week should feature late October/early November type weather. Chilly mornings with frost possible then seasonably cool afternoons under mostly sunny conditions.

 

By the middle part of next week the next front will approach the Eastern US giving the opportunity for showers once again…

FORECAST DISCUSSION: FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27TH, 2017

SUN, RAIN, THEN COLD: A LOOK AHEAD AT THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND

Before the topsy-turvy weather that we are expecting for Saturday and Sunday moves in, we will have another pleasant weather day on Friday. Mostly clear skies and a southwest flow will allow temperatures to recover from a chilly start up into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Pleasant conditions will continue into Friday night, with clouds beginning to roll in after sunset.

Saturday will be the most interesting day weather-wise in the upcoming period. Recent model trends suggest precipitation will now arrive later on Saturday afternoon. Currently, it looks like cloudy conditions will be present over the area Saturday morning, with a few areas in far western areas beginning to see a few showers move into the area in the early afternoon. By 4:00, rain should overspread the Western Counties, with the Eastern Counties seeing scattered rain showers. Rain should overspread the entire area by sunset Saturday evening, continuing into the early overnight hours. Most of the precipitation will have exited the area by sunrise Sunday morning, with a slight chance that a lingering shower may be left around. While we will not see as much widespread heavy precipitation with this event in comparison to the rain we received this past Monday, some areas will still see one and a half to two inches of rain Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with most areas seeing at least a half an inch of rain.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model Predicted Precipitation for 2:00 p.m. Saturday afternoon.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model Predicted Precipitation for 2:00 p.m. Saturday afternoon.

ECMWF (European) Model-Estimated Precipitation for Saturday Night and Sunday Morning. This model generally shows 0.5"-1", with some areas seeing 1.5"+

ECMWF (European) Model-Estimated Precipitation for Saturday Night and Sunday Morning. This model generally shows 0.5"-1", with some areas seeing 1.5"+

GFS (American) Model-Estimated Precipitation for Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. This model shows slightly more precipitation overall, with less precipitation concentrated along the mountain ridges.

GFS (American) Model-Estimated Precipitation for Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. This model shows slightly more precipitation overall, with less precipitation concentrated along the mountain ridges.

 

Once the rain moves out of the area Sunday morning, cold conditions will move in to replace it. Temperatures will be exceptionally cool Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, with many areas staying in the 50s Sunday afternoon and falling below the freezing mark Monday morning. Chilly conditions will remain over the area throughout the beginning of next week, although a warming trend will begin by Tuesday as conditions moderate.

ECMWF-Forecasted Synoptic-scale setup for Sunday afternoon. 

ECMWF-Forecasted Synoptic-scale setup for Sunday afternoon. 

Have a great Friday!

-Chase Scott Graham