Midweek Weather Briefing: Wednesday should remain generally dry, then transition to storms begin

Submitted by: Daniel Crawley (@SoApps1979)

 

Good Wednesday morning to everyone, we hope that your week has been a good one up to this point. So far in the weather world, I would categorize it as being pretty good across the Western Carolinas. Thunderstorm activity, at least on a widespread basis,  has taken a hiatus the past few days which for this forecaster has been greatly appreciated. Today should provide another break for the most part as storm chances are slight, however a gradual shift toward the return of active weather looks to be in the books as we round out the end of the work week.

 

First thing we’ll do is look at the early morning water vapor image and it shows what I would consider as a complex pattern, especially for the middle of August. Normally we are at the peak of the summer where the jet streak is furthest north, it’s usually a time in which not a lot is going on country-wide. But that can’t be said when looking at the water vapor as we have several upper level features, while detached from the main jet, is still playing a big role in what’s going on. There is one departing upper low over New England, the next feature is spinning around in the Central Plains states and is waiting for the New England feature to slide off so it can also eject east. The third upper feature of interest is located across Eastern Montana and slowly moving into the Dakotas.

 

 

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The New England upper low really pushed some drier air into the Western Carolinas on northwest winds aloft. That push of air really disrupted what had been a very unstable atmosphere for several days prior. Precipitable water values, which this time of the year is key player in storm development, have lowered significantly in the past 48 hours. You can see on the meso-analysis, PWAT values or 1.3 in or less pushed into North Carolina while the higher values (1.5+ PWAT’s) generally pushed south of Interstate 20. You will also notice back over the Mississippi River Valley how precipitable water values have recovered…those values will begin to push east over time.

 

 

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Today’s weather will continue to be dominated by down-sloping winds aloft and lower moisture content. A brief shower or storm cannot be ruled out late in the day but overall we continue to see ourselves in a quiet weather pattern. High’s today will top out in the mid/upper 80’s along Interstate 40 with a few low 90’s possible in our southern tier.

 

On Thursday we will begin to see a few changes as high pressure at the surface will begin to set up just off the east coast. Light and variable winds of Wednesday will begin to veer around to the south and southeast. That is going to accelerate the process of bringing deep low level moisture back into the Western Carolinas and with that expect a few extra showers and storms to develop with temps still in the upper 80’s to near 90.

 

 

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By the time we get to Friday an improved low level setup will start to receive assistance at the upper levels as well. The Central Plains upper low will have opened up into a trough axis by this point and will provide an extra trigger for afternoon and evening storms on Friday, just in time for the weekend! Friday evening is also the start of the high school football season in North Carolina, so I’m sure many people will be keeping an eye on the weather for the Week 1 Games across the region.

 

 

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Rain chances Friday/Fri Night will be generally in the 50 percent range and will also persist into the weekend ending this run of generally quiet weather. With the wind flow overall being quite light, we’ll need to keep an eye for areas of heavy rain potential where repeated storms might fire up. As you remember several parts of the coverage area racked up some hefty rainfall totals going back to last weekend. And even though its been dry as of recent, it won’t take many rounds of storms to saturate the ground again.

 

 

As we said this looks to be the pattern going into the weekend, as the feature moving east finally begins to exit on Sunday it will be replaced hot on its heels with the next upper trough. So overall we are getting back into a convective weather pattern with high precipitable water values. That should help keep daytime temperatures at or below seasonal norms going into early next week.

 

 

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Have a great day!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Saturday Weather Discussion Features Talk of Some Dry Weather But More Wet Weather Ahead.

3:00pm - Saturday 8/11/2018 - Chief Meteorologist Chris White

Good afternoon.  Thunderstorms have developed again this evening with the heating of the day.   These storms are producing rainfall rates over 1.5 inches per hour and isolated cores are producing rates near 2 inches per hour.  This activity should continue to move ESE at 10mph, limiting flooding concerns to only isolated issues.  That rainfall will continue to cause ponding of water on roadways though so travel with care.  Remember turn around and don't drown. 

Overall a surface stalled frontal boundary is stretched just to our East along roughly I-85.  A trough is moving SE from the Great Lakes and an upper low will develop near Ohio on Sunday.  Sunday afternoon a piece of energy will move toward our area.  This will approach at about the same time thunderstorms erupt across the mountains.  Due to this we will advertise higher rain chances on Sunday Afternoon.  This convection will start across the mountains and spread East from there, across our western counties first, and then across our eastern counties.  A few of these storms will be strong and possibly severe as well.  Damaging straight line winds will be the severe threat from microbursts.  There will be a risk of flash flooding too as these storms Sunday Afternoon cluster together.  Although the threat will be low overall, areas that have seen high rainfall amounts this week will be more susceptible.  The storms should become even more widespread and slightly stronger once they move East of our area. High temps Sunday will remain about where we are at this afternoon, mid and upper 80s's with heat indexes in the low and mid 90's.

On Monday another piece of energy will move into the area and this will lead to more scattered showers and thunderstorms.  I think the best chance of seeing severe weather on Monday will be along and SE of I-85, out of our coverage area.  High temps on Monday should top out in the upper 80's.

By Tuesday that stubborn stalled front will finally start to move out and the upper level low will start to move out of Ohio to the NE.  This means better weather on Tuesday but still expect at least isolated thunderstorm coverage (20-30%).  High temps on Tuesday will be around 90 degrees with heat indices nearing 100.

Great news for Wednesday if you are looking to take a day off this week.  Dry weather is forecast and will take rain chances down to 5% in our area, just to allow for any shower that may move off the high elevations.  Almost everyone will remain dry on Wednesday will be in the upper 80's to around 90 degrees with plentiful sun.

That will not last though.  Thursday that brief ridge of high pressure that should keep us dry on Wednesday will move away and our next weather system approaches.  Will advertise isolated to widely scattered showers and storms.  Temps should still climb up to around 90 degrees. 

Friday and Saturday things turn wet and stormy again across the area as a cold front moves in.  There should be abundant moisture stream back into the area along the front.  Friday really is taking on the look of a weather ready action day for strong storms and torrential rainfall.  A lot will depend on timing of the front, how much sun we see early, and how Gulf of Mexico moisture plays into the equation.  So as it normally is late in the forecast period, there are a lot of things to look at and changes to adapt with over the next few days.  My concern is the heavy rainfall threat more than the severe storms.  Our area has been doused with torrential rainfall and high rain totals the last two weeks. This is something that we will really need to pay attention too and High Impact Weather Briefings will be started on Monday Morning for our emergency management partners.

 

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A stormy end to the work week appears likely...

Submitted by Daniel Crawley: (@SoApps1979)

 

We are taking a look at the weather for your Friday and it appears that some ingredients may come together to produce another good round of showers and thunderstorms for the Western Carolinas…

 

Late this evening we have a feature moving through at the mid and upper levels of the atmosphere crossing the Mississippi River and dropping toward the general direction of Memphis Tennessee. This upper feature on Friday will turn east and slowly weaken as it crosses the Tennessee Valley Region…but it will not weaken fast enough to prevent a solid trigger for storms. This is a setup with similarities to that of what we experienced on Wednesday, this will have to be monitored through the overnight model runs.

 

 

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Along with the upper level features there will be a good amount of surface instability and low level moisture to serve as the thunderstorm fuel needed. Surface CAPE values will be more than sufficient enough to get the storms going and with Precipitable Water Values at or above normal values, any storm will be very efficient rainfall producers.

 

 

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Tomorrow’s storms will have the chance to produce gusty winds, torrential rainfall and dangerous amounts of lightning…

 

The best timeframe for storms are from mid afternoon through the late evening hours, so if you have outdoor plans on Friday, have a plan in case storms roll though your location…

 

 

FUTURECAST

 

 

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Wednesday Futurecast: Strong Storms possible later today...

Warm, humid and a generally uncapped atmosphere resides across a good part of the Eastern US including here in the Carolinas. The combination of that along with surface heating and leftover outflow boundary will result in a somewhat active weather day…

 

 

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The Storm Prediction Center has placed a broad Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather today across most of the Upper Southeast and into the Mid Atlantic. That does include the Foothills and Western Piedmont in North Carolina. The big threats from today’s storms are damaging winds and heavy rainfall. The microburst winds will occur in localized areas as storms begin to collapse. The outflows from collapsing storms will help to spawn additional activity around its periphery….

Storm activity will begin in the early afternoon and will increase through the late afternoon to early evening hours before tapering off after sunset.

 

 

 

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FUTURECAST

 

 

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Monday Morning Weather Briefing. Typical Summer Pattern First Half Of Week Then Moisture Increases Again Late Week.

5:00am Monday August 6th, 2018 - Chief Meteorologist Christopher White

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Good Monday Morning.  Mostly clear skies and all of the shower and storm activity from Sunday Evening has died out.  There are some areas of patchy fog along Hwy 321 and 16 in our Eastern Counties.  Otherwise it should be a pleasant commute in this morning with temps around 70 degrees. 

More of the same pattern today as a ridge of high pressure out over the Atlantic has full control of our pattern.  Flow today will become more Westerly but still not strong enough to move things along.  So expect more of the slow moving showers and storms today.  Precipitation rates should be a tad lower but still higher than normal, around 1.5 inches per hour in the strongest storms.  Storms today may get strong with a lot of lightning but not a huge risk of severe weather.  Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out today.  High temps will be in the upper 80's to low 90's.

The same type of pattern will hold on for Tuesday as well.  Afternoon showers and storms in a typical summer pattern. Highs will be a degree or two above Monday's highs likely around 90 to the low 90's. 

By Wednesday another weak cold front will approach the area from the NW.  Showers and storms will see an up tick in coverage by Wednesday.  That front makes it into the area Wednesday Night so thunderstorms may linger into the early nighttime hours.  That front will sag South of our area and stall by Thursday Morning. 

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Thursday and later in the period get a little more questionable.  The flow splits and Northern stream energy will be kept across the Great Lakes and New England.  The Southern jet remains South but the question arrives as to how much.  Waves of energy will travel through this Southern Stream.  Depending on where exactly that front settles and that southern stream this period could be wet.   Temps are a little difficult to but will air on the side of typical summer weather and forecast upper 80's.

The weekend arrives and it could be wet.  Models coming into better agreement that an upper low will dive down to Indiana and create a Southerly flow out of the Gulf again.  If this occurs there could be additional hydro concerns across the area.  Plenty of time to fine tune that though. 

The Week Ahead: Humidity ensues

Good morning, Foothills Weather Nation!

As the title suggests we are not yet out of the rainy woods, but we are closer to sunnier skies. A brief synopsis of the week ahead is warmer than it's been lately (low 90's), humid, partly sunny skies, and rain probabilities hovering around 30-40% daily for the full length of the week. 

Let's get into the details:

Near Term Forecast (Sunday)

Patchy fog hides in the creases of valleys and low lying areas this morning, but should be gone by 10 am. Today seems to be the least likely for big thunderstorms with the maximum precipitation probability we're seeing is 20%, but that doesn't mean a determined thunderstorm couldn't sneak in around the later afternoon hours into the early evening. Diurnal high for today should hover just at or under 90 degrees with mostly sunny skies and calm wind conditions.

Short Term Forecast (Monday-Thursday)

Monday though Thursday will all be of similar forecast as we can expect partly sunny skies, temperatures hovering around 90 degrees, precipitation probabilities of 30-40% with a chance evening thunderstorms, and overnight lows near 70 degrees. The reason for the lack of change in forecast during this time is that our atmospheric profile is in a summery pattern with a high pressure center holding strong over the western Georgia, central Alabama region. This is advecting a reasonable amount of moisture, but isn't providing the energy that would match troughs and fronts. All thunderstorms in this time should be diurnally convective in nature.

Long Term Forecast (Friday-Saturday)

The weekend shows promise of a slight dip in temperature (mid-upper 80's) and currently a slight dip in precipitation probabilities (30%), but this is likely to change as our high pressure center wobbles. 

 

Thanks for reading!

Have a great week!

A look back at the heavy rainfall from this week...

Submitted by: Daniel Crawley (@SoApps1979)

 

 

Good Saturday morning to everyone, it has been a very active week across the Western Carolinas thanks in part to a slow-moving storm system in the upper levels that provided the fuel and a focus of heavy rainfall. Computer models helped supplied us, as forecasters, some advance notice that stormy weather was coming.

 

A shortwave coming from the Plains states dropped southeast and helped develop a positive tilt upper low and trough that centered itself along the Mississippi River. That along with Western Atlantic ridging meant the region was under divergent flow aloft (good indicator for lift) with deep tropical moisture of a Central American origin. The divergent flow at the upper levels combined with a surface boundary and low pressure was all that the region needed. Add some upslope flow to boot and the recipe was there for heavy and excessive rainfall. Click on the YouTube link below for a loop of moisture over the past 96 hours as it streamed up the east coast…

 

 

 

 

 

Showers and thunderstorms began Monday and continued up through last night. Several rounds followed the same general track. To sections of the eight-county coverage area received the highest rainfall amounts, the first being from Eastern Lincoln and Catawba Counties into all of Alexander County and northeast from there up into Southern Virginia. The second bullseye occurred along the eastern escarpment from near Lake Lure northeast to Jonas Ridge (Burke County) and Globe (Caldwell County). The locations with the heaviest totals were in the 4-8 inch range and some local higher amounts likely has occurred. Flood reports confirmed the threat across parts of Alexander, Burke, Caldwell and McDowell County, a couple isolated landslide reports came in as well along the escarpment.

 

You can see these areas depicted clearly on the doppler radar multi-day rainfall estimate. The areas that received the least rainfall still picked up amounts in the 1-3 range so for those locations flash flooding of small streams and rivers were not as common as it was in the hardest hit zones. This doppler estimate covered the timeframe from late Tuesday through Friday.

 

 

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After researching through local data, here is a detailed storm total rainfall map for the coverage area, the amounts range from Monday afternoon until Friday afternoon. The data was pulled from various sources including local storm spotters, local CoCoRaHS members and data from local COOP stations. The highest 4-day total was over 8 inches in the Taylorsville area, several areas of 3-6 in totals. And even the lowest amounts were still in excess of 2 inches.

 

 

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One thing we would like to note in this report is the lack of reliable data available this week in sections of Caldwell and Rutherford Counties. There is a real void in rainfall data in those two areas as you can see on the map, at least data that is consistently submitted. This is an issue that has a somewhat easy remedy and it’s crowd sourcing through programs like CoCoRaHS.

We have a lot of loyal followers who ask us often how can they could help contribute reports? Well, honestly joining a program like CoCoRaHS would go a long ways. And best part is that the process is easy. All you have to do is purchase a standard manual rain gauge certified by CoCoRaHS (a $25 investment) and committing to submitting daily rainfall data online…that’s all one has to do in order to join the CoCoRaHS family. The data gathered is for public use and can be very useful in helping verify rainfall amounts vs doppler radar estimates along with using data to help determine risk areas for flooding and/or flash flooding.

 

Additional info on CoCoRaHS is available for those who may have interest in being a part of the crowd-sourcing program….   https://www.cocorahs.org/

Thursday High Impact Weather Briefing. Areas of Significant Flash Flooding Forecast Today.

1:30am Thursday August 2nd, 2018 - Chief Meteorologist Chris White

A deep trough will move east and interact with a ridge of high pressure located over the Atlantic.  Pieces of upper level energy will rotate through the trough and interact with the warm and moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic.  This will increase rainfall rates where the convection gets going.  A narrow band of convection will likely develop and train over the same areas repeatedly where this trough runs into the Atlantic Ridge.  With the highest precipitation rates of the week across the region today we are expecting areas of significant flash flooding. 

A little more alarming is that confidence has increased in a surface low that moves North on this evening into Friday.  Precipitation rates will likely now max out this afternoon into the predawn hours on Friday Morning.  Additional rainfall on the order of 1 - 5 inches are likely.  Most of our area will receive anywhere from 2-4 inches of rain.  There could be much higher localized totals than this.  The Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 8:00am Friday Morning.  Landslides and flash flooding are probable, especially this evening into the predawn hours of Friday. 

As always keep it here and we will keep you abreast of the latest developments.  Please see the futurecast radar in seprate briefing below.

Thursday Futurecast: Potential of heavy rainfall continues for the region...

Submitted by: Daniel Crawley (@SoApps1979)

 

Deep tropical moisture will continue to persist over the area on Thursday and could actually increase some due to a trough that remains back along the Mississippi River Valley region. Showers and thunderstorms will be possible at any time on Thursday with the greatest coverage being from around noon through the late afternoon and into Thursday evening.

 

Flash Flood Watches remain in effect through Friday morning, pockets of the coverage area has received 3-5 inches of rainfall during the past 48 hours while some locations have picked up less than one inch. Remain weather aware as heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding in your area the next 24 hours...

 

 

FUTURECAST:

 

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High Impact Weather Briefing; 10:00am Update Which Highlights SPC’s Severe Weather Outlook to Slight Risk.

10:00am Wednesday August 1st, 2018- Chief Meteorologist Chris White

Have updated High Impact Weather update with the new Storm Predictions Centers Severe Weather upgrade.  This includes all 8 of our counties with an upgrade to slight risk. Slight risk means that there is a 15% risk of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of any one given spot on the map. Thunderstorms should erupt this afternoon and these will last into the evening.  As these thunderstorms grow they could encounter just enough sheer which would allow them to organize into a couple of clusters. Localized damaging wind threat does exist. The main threat today continues to be the potential flash flooding though.

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5:15am Wednesday August 1st, 2018 - Chief Meteorologist Chris White

A deep trough will move east and interact with a ridge of high pressure located over the Atlantic.  Lobes of upper level energy will rotate through the trough and interact with the warm and moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic.  This will increase rainfall rates where the convection gets going.  A narrow band of convection will likely develop and train over the same areas repeatedly where this trough runs into the Atlantic Ridge.  Models have pushed that line of convection West and now are really in agreement with the precipitation adding up quick this afternoon.  A little more alarming is that confidence is growing in a surface low that moves North on Thursday Evening into Friday.  Precipitation rates will likely now max out Thursday Afternoon into the predawn hours on Friday Morning.  Additional rainfall on the order of 2-7 inches are likely.  Most of our area will receive anywhere from 2-4 inches of rain with the higher amounts of 4-7 inches fairly localized to that narrow banding.  In response to overnight developments the Flash Flood Watch is now extended until 8:00am Friday Morning.  Landslides and flash flooding are probable, especially Thursday Evening into the predawn hours of Friday.  There is a low end threat of isolated wet microbursts to occur this afternoon and evening.  A couple of severe warnings may be needed for straight line winds this afternoon. 

As always keep it here and we will keep you abreast of the latest developments. 

Torrential Rainfall High Impact Weather Briefing. Flash Flood Watches Hoisted Across Entire Area.

Tuesday 5:00am -  Chief Meteorologist Christopher White

Strong South and Southeast flow will pull moisture into the are off of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico.  As the week progresses the flood threat increases daily, peaking on Thursday and Friday.  By the weekend activity should become more scattered and any flooding issues, if any,  should become more isolated and localized.  A Flash Flood Watch is in effect of the entire 8 county coverage area until 8:00pm Thursday Night.

As of 3:00am Tuesday Morning shower and storm activity is on the upward swing again as moisture and lift increase over the area.  Cells today should have a little more forward motion to the Northeast as winds aloft become a little stronger ahead of an approaching short wave.  Low level flow will be from the South and Southeast though allowing for multiple rounds of showers and storms to develop and move over the same areas repeatedly.   The area of most concern is up along the Blue Ridge Eastern slopes of Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, and Rutherford Counties as 1-2 inches of rainfall have already fallen there between Sunday and Monday. 

Several short waves will rotate through the upper level trough that is responsible for bringing this mess to us.  Today (Tuesday) will lay the ground work for what I am worried will be a very busy Wednesday and Thursday.  Wednesday and Thursday a piece of that aforementioned energy rotates into the area at the same time that the highest precipitation rates will move through.  This could mean streams and creeks will rapidly flash flood overnight Wednesday into Thursday.  Rainfall rates will likely exceed 2 inches of rain per hour.  We have a real concern of these cells training and anchoring on the Blue Ridge. 

Here are our High Impact Weather Briefing Graphics.

Heavy Rainfall Potential to Increase Next 48 Hours...

Forecaster:  Daniel Crawley (@SoApps1979)

 

Good Monday afternoon to everyone…we have been talking about the return of an active weather pattern in previous briefings that have been posted on the website. And it appears we can begin to narrow it down even more as the next 48+ hours looks to be the most active in the current forecast period.

 

First, by looking at the water vapor image, you can see moisture already beginning to stream northeast into the Western Carolinas, thanks in part to an upper trough/low developing and diving toward the Mississippi River along with the Western Atlantic Ridge that is holding firm just off the east coast. The flow around both features will deliver deep south and southwest flow through most of this week.

 

 

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The Weather Prediction Center has highlighted portions of the Southeast US including the Western Carolinas under a slight risk for excessive rainfall for both Tuesday and Wednesday as the players synoptically will be in place.

 

 

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The areas of highest risk also correlates to where some of the deepest moisture content will be on both Tuesday and Wednesday. Precipitable Water Values will be in the 1.7 – 2.0 inch range across the coverage area, which is very sufficient for heavy rainfall potential. With an upper low and backside ridging in place, we should have a mainly uncapped atmosphere. All we need is the slightest upper level help to serve as a trigger to fire the storms…

 

 

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Again, we think the greatest rainfall potential will be on Tuesday and Wednesday, possibly lasting into Thursday before things calm down just a bit. Here is the latest WPC forecast rainfall through Friday morning, the potential for flash flooding will increase as we go through the weekend, please take all watches and warnings seriously when they are issued. Remain Weather Aware if heavy rainfall impacts your area…

 

 

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The Week Ahead:

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation!

The GSP National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for the Foothills:

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
546 AM EDT Sun Jul 29 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and
evening. Brief heavy rain, gusty winds, and cloud-to-ground lightning
will be possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

..Monday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Tuesday...Heavy rain possible. An unsettled pattern will set up
over the region, resulting in periods of heavy rainfall.
..Wednesday...Heavy rain possible.
..Thursday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Friday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.
..Saturday...No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

What a teaser to what our week ahead has in store for us! We're looking at a rain oriented week with Tuesday and Wednesday being our currently forecasted peak. A new standing, deepening trough is developing on the eastern US providing a conveyor belt of the Gulf's warmth and moisture. Let's get into the details.

Near Term Forecast (Today-Tonight)

The clouds are filling in across the forecasting area as we speak along with temperatures hovering around 85 degrees. It's possible to see the temperature bump up another degree or so, but otherwise we are generally close to our high for the day. Winds are currently coming out of the NE at around 6-8 mph and the chances of rain begins it's ascension. Starting at 5 pm on through the night we have a 50% chance of rain and thunderstorms. This won't decrease despite the lack of diurnal energy as a river of precipitable water funnels into the area.

Short Term Forecast (Monday-Thursday)

Sunshine and natural melatonin will be sparse for our work week as each day is currently forecasted for mostly cloudy skies. Conditions will generally be stagnant as each day brings promise of rain and thunderstorms, high temperatures in the mid to low 80's, lows snuggling close to 70 degrees, and winds from the southwest. Tuesday and Wednesday we will see an extra flux of rain as a higher concentration of precipitable water will ebb through paired with a local jet maximum that will add to the summertime energy. Current precipitation probabilities for Monday-Thursday are 60, 80, 70, and 70 percent respectively. As per summertime protocol, we can expect lighting and gusty conditions locally per storm. 

Long Term Forecast (Friday-Sunday)

Our standing trough will weaken at the start of our weekend expressing less available energy, but this doesn't suggest a change in local upper atmospheric flow ie. little change in our bounty of water. Expect continued mostly cloudy conditions, temperatures in the low 80's and upper 60's for the highs and lows respectively, and more south-southwesterly winds. Current precipitation probabilities for Friday through Sunday sit evenly at 60%. 

Thanks for reading. Stay tuned and stay dry!

 

5:00pm Update: Storms Fire On Blue Ridge North Of I-40

5:00pm: Storms have developed along the Blue Ridge In Caldwell. Even one small shower popped briefly over Lake James but it is dissipating as of this update. The highest rain chances remain North of I-40. We will monitor this little cluster of storms that has developed in Caldwell. It’s rather weak right now and currently radar indicates further weakening. So storm/rain chances are at 40% along and North of I-40. South if I-40 only a 20% shot. All of this is in response to a weak cold front that is approaching the area from the North. 

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 —7:00am Friday July 27, 2018- Chief Meteorologist Christopher White

 

Well we have reached the weekend and for a lot of us that means it’s almost time to kick back, relax, and enjoy some family time! I hope your week has been a great one. Mostly clear skies as you head out this morning. There is some patchy fog but that’s going to quickly burn off and temps will race up towards 90° again today.  As you can see there are some bubbly cumulus out there already this morning

This afternoon a cold front will approach from the North.  This front should be enough of a trigger to fire some widely scattered showers and storms. I think the best bet for storms today will be in Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, and McDowell. The atmosphere could support a couple of strong to maybe severe this afternoon. Now the chance for rain and storms hinders a lot on what happens in the counties named above. There is just enough speed sheer present today that could allow a couple of these storms to organize into small clusters. If this does occur then rain chances will be bumped up to 30% south of I-40. Currently we will keep chances of storms at 40% along and North of I-40 and 20% South of I-40. Monitor updates through the day. Even if they do organize not everyone will see rain. Basically 4 out of every 10 will get wet while only 2 out of every 10 people south of 40 get wet. The better organized storms and heavy rain are well east of I-77 today.

Whatever gets going this afternoon will be slow movers. Rain rates could reach upwards of 1.6 inches per hour. Models are not to excited with coverage though. Hopefully that trend will hold and the flash flood risk will remain less than a 5% chance (very isolated). Clouds and widely scattered showers hold into the nighttime. Lows tonight will only be in the mid and upper 60’s.

 

 Saturday Through Sunday 

Showers could last into the predawn hours on Saturday. High pressure will be strengthening over the Atlantic as a weak piece of energy dives Southeast from the Great Lakes Saturday Afternoon into Sunday.  As high pressure builds out in The Atlantic during the same time period aforementioned it will move the precipitation chances further west. Most areas west of I-77 will remain mainly dry Saturday with only a 20% chance of showers and storms Saturday Afternoon. The chances creep up for Sunday to 40% chance in Alexander, Catawba, and Lincoln Counties.  Only 30% chances for our western counties.  The one exception to this will be our high country friends where the small piece of weak energy inches closer.  This should allow for some extra buoyancy to get a few very isolated pop up cells going Saturday and better coverage inn Sunday. The lowest precipitation chances for the weekend are over the greater portions of Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, and Rutherford. High temps on Saturday should be in the mid 80’s. 

   

 Early Next Week 

The cold front that moves through on Friday Night will stall just to our South and East. Then by Monday this will become a slow moving warm front that moves back North. As it does so it will open the Gulf of Mexico up and funnel moisture into our area. This flow looks the strongest on Tuesday Night. Tuesday into Wednesday will likely be the period with the heaviest rainfall. Rainfall totals of 2-4 inches are possible next week and some local amounts could be much higher, especially near the Blue Ridge.  

 

Here is a look at NOAA’s rainfall forecast for the next 7 days. We will close here and update with any new updates as the day goes in.  

 

 WPC Precipitation Outlook Through the next 7 days.  

WPC Precipitation Outlook Through the next 7 days.  

Wednesday afternoon briefing: Brief reduction in storms for the late week...

Written by: Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

 

Good Wednesday afternoon to everyone…after going through several days of unsettled weather, the synoptic pattern will change a bit as we head toward the upcoming weekend. However as a forewarning, the change may be just temporary as we could re-enter another wet and stormy weather pattern by the first part of next week…

 

Currently this pesky upper trough and low that has impacted the Carolina weather scene going back to last weekend has finally given up the fight and is in the process of moving out of the region. It is providing one last calling card in the form of showers and thunderstorms today. Though as you can see on the water vapor image, drier mid level air is advancing toward the Western Carolinas and it should really kick in starting tonight as we reduce the storm chances drastically over the next 48 hours…

 

 

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Thursday the weather will improve quite a bit across the Western Carolinas as drier air and westerly winds will prevail. We may even avoid storm chances all together tomorrow across the Piedmont while a token 20 % POP will continue across the Foothills. This should prevail into Friday and possibly Saturday…with the lowered moisture content expect temperatures during the daytime to respond in kind over the next 2-3 days, reached late July norms (Upper 80 to near 90) with mild nighttime values in the mid/upper 60’s.

 

 

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As we get to the second half of the weekend you can already see the next player on the playing field as the main upper trough located across Canada begins to move east, however a tail piece of that trough will break off and begin to dig southeast toward the Mississippi River. This piece of energy will be the genesis of the next storm system. Scattered storms will begin to increase in coverage for the tail end of the weekend as a result and will increase drastically going into next week.

 

 

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Once we get into early next weekend we are quickly heading back into a wet pattern as the digging trough firmly centers itself roughly along the Mississippi River. With that and a stout Bermuda High in place, look for the deep tropical moisture to re-enter the equation giving the region high shower/storm chances for next week.

 

 

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Precip amounts over the next 7 days continued to look quite wet across the Carolinas with the western part of the state possibly getting the higher amounts. However as stated above, this will be back-end loaded…

 

 

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Temperatures the next 7-Days is highly dependent  on the amount of moisture that is in place. The ensemble guidance is quite aggressive with 90’s through he weekend in both our foothill and piedmont locations but come next week you can easily see the influence of the next deep trough in terms of the temperatures.

 

 

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Tuesday Futurecast (7-24-18): Another day of unsettled weather expected

Good Tuesday morning to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont, stagnant weather pattern continues across the region. Early this morning we have an upper low spinning its wheels across The Peach State of Georgia, high pressure off the East Coast of the US providing a solid moisture pump and a shortwave trough across the northern tier of the US.

 

 

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The upper low and the southeast fetch off the Atlantic has allowed a few showers to develop overnight but that should gradually die off by after daybreak. But all it will take is some daytime heating with the upper low in the vicinity to spawn off additional heavy rain showers by afternoon. Our upper low should weaken some today and eventually lift out as we get ready for the mid week timeframe.

 

Any storms today will have torrential rainfall, dangerous lightning and some gusty winds...

 

 

 

FUTURECAST

 

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Noon

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Monday Afternoon Update.....Flash Flood Threat Increases Slightly

3:45pm Monday July 23, 2018 - Chief Meteorologist Chris White

Good afternoon. As everyone has probably seen a Flash Flood Watch has been hoisted across our entire coverage area. Overall though the forecast looks right on track and the highest precipitation chances are from now through 9pm, and chances are at 95%. After 9pm will follow guidance from NWS and most guidance in slowly winding down coverage, call it about 10% every hour past 9pm. By 2:00am coverage of showers and storms should drop below 50%. We will carry a 40% chance of rain through the early morning Tuesday before chances ramp back up Tuesday after sunrise. All of that being said there continues to be a little uncertainty as to if rainfall rates will surpass 2 inches per hour.  Precipitation rates have been lower than anticipated across SC which is where all of this moisture is moving from.  

 

Synopticlly (large scale) speaking the upper level level low continues to push south through Central Georgia, keeping our area in the Southeast flow. Unlike the May 31, 2018 Flash Flood event where significant flooding occurred, the flow off the Atlantic is not as moist. In fact the Southwest mountains of NC (that normally are the first to flood) are not included in the newly hoisted flash flood watch because most of this flow from Southeast to Northeast is being channeled up roughly the I-77 corridor. A stalled frontal boundary is draped roughly along a line from Athens GA to Columbia SC, Charlotte NC, up to Greensboro NC. A spoke of upper level energy is moving North  through the upper level flow and is positioned near Columbia SC. Moisture from Southeast flow is becoming very buoyant due to the lift created by that stalled front and spoke of energy. That is why there has been explosive shower and storm development across SC over the last hour and a half.  All of that moisture is due to move up into NC roughly from Concord West to Asheville. That’s the reason for the new Flash Flood Watch.  

It is also worth noting that some of the new high resolution model runs are developing another round of convection over SC and are now throwing it up into the area on up into the night. For now though none of the other model suites are indicating this. It’s something we will monitor and update accordingly as we go through the evening.

In our 8 County forecast area we are anticipating 1.5 to 4inches of rain through tonight. There could be locally higher amounts near the Eastern slopes and along Hwy 16 in our eastern counties. 

 

Satellite Upper and Lower Water Vapor Imagry and Radar 3:45pm

Weather Graphics Update from NOAA,  and Flash Flood Watch Counties

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9:00am Monday July 23, 2018 - Chief Meteorologist Chris White

 

Good Monday Morning. Let’s hope your week gets off to a great start. Weather wise mosty cloudy skies as of 9:00am. Temps in the upper 60’s and approaching 70°. Dewpoints are in the low 60’s now but those will creep up into the upper 60’s this afternoon and especially this evening. 

 

 

3 Day Severe Weather Outlook

9:15am Goes East Imagry: Red outlining the very broad upper low that stretches from The Great Lakes and down into Florida. “L” indicating the next spoke of energy that is moving North. Showers and storms are already developing in response to that and those are moving North toward our area. 

This morning there is some sun out there so that will aid the atmosphere to destabilize ahead from the aforementioned showers and storms mentioned above. While severe weather is not a big concern today, these storms could get strong and produce frequent lightning and torrential rainfall. Pea sized hail may be possible with the strongest storms this afternoon and evening. Highs today reach the up to around 80°.   Right now I believe our eastern counties will see more rain than our western counties today. This upper trough will continue to negatively tilt, pulling the band of moisture that is currently alon the Sandhills and cost to the West. Models in great agreement that the entire forecast area gets in on the rainfall this afternoon and evening. Showers and storms are moving North this morning but this afternoon will start to move from SSE to NNW. Additionally as the trough tilts negatively a narrow band of convection may form and train over the same areas over and over this evening. That raises the eyebrow a little bit for Alexander, Catawba, and Lincoln as we believe that line will stall somewhere along I-77. A small jog West is the difference between flooding rains and showers. We will monitor and keep you updated.

 

As shown above in the new SPC graphics above, thunder is in the forecast for the next three days.  At this time we are in a general thunderstorm risk which means widespread severe weather isn’t likely. I agree with the SPC and things look in good order there.   Tuesday winds will back and begin to change the flow. Southwest winds will keep things moist and unsettled even though the upper low begins to fall apart Tuesday Evening.  The same looks to happen everyday over the next 7, yeilding most areas to see a good 2-4 inch rainfall with locally higher amounts. More details later on.

 

 

 

 

Monday Futurecast (7/23/18)

Good Monday morning, we are starting off the new week on an active note. Early this morning we continue to have an upper low cutoff from the main jet stream. This upper low currently sitting along or just west of the Southern Appalachians will slowly move southward centering itself across Central Georgia by this afternoon. This will be significant as the flow will finally veer around to southerly and southeast providing an upslope component to the flow across the Western Carolinas.

 

 

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After some early morning fog and clouds, there will be a little sunshine to break through region-wide. With the upper low in place, plentiful moisture and the upslope flow...showers and thunderstorms will begin to develop shortly after lunchtime today and will maximize itself during the late afternoon to early evening hours. Isolated severe weather is expected, damaging winds being the threat. It will be the torrential rainfall that is the larger impact for today. Some foothill locations received 1-2 inches of rain on Sunday while others remained dry. Any storms today can easily lay down 1-2 inches in a one hour period, so be on the lookout for poor drainage issues that may occur. Lightning also could be frequent in the stronger storms that develop...

 


 

 

FUTURECAST:

 

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The Week Ahead: Rainy Days Ahead

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation!

While you won't necessarily be needing a boat, we will be moving into a wetter period this week as a standing trough that, although weakening, centers itself over Ohio meaning that North Carolina is directly in the path of the moisture and energy heavy jet stream. This trough will dwindle down to basically nothing come Thursday where we anticipate some sunnier skies for Thursday and Friday. This won't make promises of a drier weekend as our regional precipitable water never experiences a hiccup. Let's get into the details:

Short Term Forecast (Today-Tonight)

We are already seeing some evidence of storms picking up across the forecasting area as we start into our evening. Precipitation probabilities are currently around 60% and are expected to drop a little (40%) tonight with less lightning likely the further into the night. We peaked out or high today in the 85-86 degree range and are now on the graceful decline to our overnight low in the upper 60's. 

Near Term Forecast (Monday-Thursday) 

This part of the forecast is where the meat of our precipitation seems to take effect as we have a bounty of summery heat, plentiful moisture, and a continuous supply of energy granted by the standing trough. 

 12Z GFS Precipitation Accumulation valid 21Z Thursday

12Z GFS Precipitation Accumulation valid 21Z Thursday

Above is the GFS prediction of precipitation accumulation from 12z today on through 21z Thursday. This is a product that is still in development that therefore can't be taken 100% for it's values. What we mean is there might be more or less rain than what's estimated- especially locally depending on the storms. But what we can take from this image is the concentrations of where these totals take place. The Foothills resides right in one of North Carolina's "hot spots" so we know we are in for a respectable rain event this week. With the aforementioned bounty of heat, moisture, and energy it is fair to believe there is a solid possibility of thunderstorms every day this week, which matches the SPC's forecast for the entire East Coast.

Temperature profiles for the earlier part of the work week are on the milder side due to the anticipated rain and mostly cloudy conditions with diurnal highs in the low 80s, diurnal lows hovering just around 70 degrees. Come Thursday we will see less cloud coverage, lower precipitation probabilities (40%) and therefore a bump in temperature to the mid/upper 80's. 

Long Term Forecast (Friday-Sunday)

Finally our standing trough will have dissipated by Friday and the sun will make an appearance! Unfortunately, we can still expect a (40%) chance of rain and thunderstorms for the afternoon on Friday, but it is still summertime in NC and can therefore be expected. Daily high for Friday flirts closely to the 90 degree mark, but this could be influenced by any precipitation we might see. Going into Saturday and Sunday we see less of an influence in energy from troughs or ridges as upper atmospheric flow will be much more zonal during this time, but convective opportunities will come back into play as we surge into a stronger flux of moisture. Currently we forecast a 50-60% chance for Saturday and Sunday, but there is room for change.

Thanks for reading!

Have a great week! Stay dry!

Severe Weather To Impact Area Saturday Afternoon. ***4:45 pm update***

***4:45 pm Update*** - Daniel Crawley

Good Saturday afternoon to everyone, we continue to monitor for the potential of strong to severe thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening across the Western Carolinas. So far we have dealt with no storms of any kind, that was thanks in part to a thunderstorm complex that stabliized the atmosphere this morning, however that may be in the process of changing...

 

At 4:30 pm Doppler Radar indicated that storms have begun to develop across the eastern slopes and down along the southern escarpment of North Carolina. A Severe Thunderstorm Warning is in effect for neighboring Polk County and another, strong storm was developing in Western Rutherford County, a lightning alert has been issued for that area until 5:45 pm.

 

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This could be the beginning of more storms to develop over the next few hours, with good jet stream energy in place along with abundant moisture, these storms could turn severe in our coverage area. As you can see on the threats image below, strong damaging winds and hail could be the bigger threats that come from any storm that develops. Heavy rainfall and frequent lightning is possible as well. The tornado threat while not at zero does remain very low at this time. A Slight Risk (2 of 5) for severe weather through tonight has been re-introduced for the southern counties in the coverage area while a Marginal Risk (1 of 5) remains elsewhere.

 

 

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With the later initialization of storm development, we have adjusted our timeline for severe weather potential across the region. This does not mean all locations will receive severe storms but its a good indicator as to when any rough weather might occur.

 

 

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We will have all prudent severe weather information posted on our social media outlets and here at the website as we go through the evening. If you haven't already, download our free Phone/Tablet App at your local App Store. Just type "Foothills Weather Network" in the search bar.

 

 

 


***11:30 am Update*** - Daniel Crawley

Good Saturday morning, we are nearing the noon hour and here is the latest on the potential for severe weather for this afternoon and evening...

 

Visible Satellite imagery shows what is going on at this hour. First we have an upper low across the Ohio Valley with a nice jet streak of about 50 knots along the southeast quadrant of the upper low. That jet streak helped accelerate a thunderstorm complex this morning down across the state of Georgia. It also helped push drier air at the mid levels into the Carolinas, skies that were cloudy this morning are clearing at this time.

 

 

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Both the current thunderstorm complex and the drier air advecting in has changed things up slightly in regards to thunderstorm activity later today. The current storm complex across Georgia is going to help take some of the instability that would have been in place across a greater part of the Southeast US had no storms been currently active, so that is somewhat encouraging news, however by no means does that take us completely out of the threat for later today.

 

The Storm Prediction Center has lowered our area from a Slight Risk to a Marginal (1 of 5) Risk for the rest of today...

 

 

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Even with a lower risk level, the same threats appear to be in play as storms will re-develop this afternoon...please DO NOT let your guard down just because of the change from Slight to Marginal. A few of those could produce damaging winds, large hail and frequent lightning as they move eastward this afternoon and evening.

 

The general timeline for storms has not changed much, as you can see on the graphic below we expect the worst to be from mid afternoon until just after sunset. (areas shaded in red)

By late evening the severe weather threat should diminish but general showers and storms could still be in progress...

 

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Stay with the Foothills Weather Network for additional updates throughout the afternoon and evening on the severe weather potential...

 

 


2:30am -  Chief Meteorologist Chris White

Good early Saturday Morning.  Today is a WEATHER READY ACTION DAY across our 8 county forecast area. 

An upper level low is dropping south from The Great Lakes to the Southern Appalachians tonight.  Pieces of energy aloft will rotate through the area starting today and continuing the next several days.  Saturday will be the day of the severe weather.  Instability will build during the late morning as the sun emerges.  Atmospheric instability will approach 2500 - 3000 j/kg of CAPE over a lot of the forecast area by 6pm Saturday Evening.  Our start timing of 3:00pm may be just a little too early but Ill punt to the morning shift for updates on the timing. Cape values needed for severe weather are generally 1500 j/kg this time of year....not always but most of the time.  We will eclipse that easy on Saturday.  To get rotation for tornadoes the atmosphere needs to have sheer all the way down to the surface.  Saturday's atmosphere will have 30-40 knots of sheer aloft but from the surface to 3000ft sheer is not that impressive.  Sheer also is something we look for when we look to see if thunderstorms will organize.  With 30-40 knots of sheer aloft there is no question that thunderstorms will organize.  Storm motion will generally be from the Northwest to the Southeast.  These clusters will likely organize into a couple of lines of storms just as they did today across Kentucky.  Those lines of storms build up a cold pools of air behind them and that causes the wind to rush out ahead of the line and begin to bow.  Once these lines bow out they can really put out the wind.  That is why we are as concerned for widespread wind damage later this evening. 

A couple of final notes to add in here.  We obviously cannot rule out tornadoes Saturday.  The threat is much lower than the straight line damaging wind threat.  Wind is wind.  It doesn't matter whether it is moving in a straight line or rotating.  Straight line winds can do as much and in some cases more damage than weak tornadoes.  That is the reason that we are telling folks to treat Saturday's severe thunderstorm warnings as seriously as you treat tornado warnings.  I have attached a great guide from The National Weather Service in reporting severe weather.