Summer Heat in Early Fall

Good Thursday everyone! 

Another beautiful day in store for Western North Carolina. Highs for Thursday will top out in the low to mid 80's. 

A few widely scattered thunderstorms may develop over the Eastern escarpment of the Blue Ridge. Cloud to ground lightning will be the primary concern for any storm that does develop. Gusty winds and possibly some small hail can't be ruled out. 

The weekend looks fantastic!  Summer like conditions will persist Friday - Sunday. Mostly sunny skies each day, with temperatures climbing into the mid 80's. If you are going to be outside, you might want to have some bottled water and sunscreen around. 

As we look into next week. Summer like weather will continue. We are watching a trough that looks to develop over the middle part of the country. That should allow for a more southwesterly flow over the area.. That will increase the heat and humidity as we could push into the 90's by middle part of next week.  That will also allow for the chance of a few thunderstorms. 

 

Tropics: 
MARIA

 

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Hurricane Maria is 95 miles NNW of  Dominican Republic. Maria's pressure has lowered a bit to and winds have increased as it moves into the warmer waters. The Official Track continues to keep Maria well off the Carolina Coastline. We will have to see how the models continue to evolve as the  track after the weekend isn't sure. 

 

JOSE

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Tropical Storm Jose continues to slowly weaken of the Northeast coast. Currently Jose is located about 150 miles southeast of  Nantucket, Massachusetts. Jose continues to generate waves along the east coast, with the risk of rip currents. Jose will slowly weaken and is expected to become Subtropical by the weekend. The remnants of Jose may have an affect on Maria and where Maria may wind up going. 

 

 

Have a great day! 

Scotty Powell

Twitter: @ScottyPowell_WX

Wednesday Weather Discussion: Continued warm weather across the Western Carolinas.

Good Wednesday to everyone…it’s  mid week and we continue to enjoy some abnormally warm weather here in the Western Carolinas.

 

The weather for today will feature increasing clouds in the afternoon and a slight chance of a shower, especially in the Foothills with temperatures still in the low to mid 80’s. Thursday should consist of a repeat with isolated shower chances.

 

Then as we approach the weekend those isolated shower chances will disappear as winds begin to veer back around to the northeast, however temperatures will remain the same. Daytime highs in the 80’s with overnight low’s in the 60’s.

 

All in all we are going to continue a dry weather pattern as you can see with the WPC forecast precip through Sunday morning. Rainfall amounts will be paltry.


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In the tropics…Catastrophic Hurricane Maria is moving WNW in the direction of Puerto Rico and will make landfall later today. This is going to be a catastrophic hit for the US territory. A good part of the island was just starting he process of recovery from Irma back nearly two weeks ago.


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Maria has maximum winds of 160 mph as of the latest update and will continue to move WNW and then NW. It will still too early to completely rule out impacts to the East Coast.

 

Meanwhile Tropical Storm Jose is located off the Mid-Atlantic Coastline and is moving slowly northeast. Jose is expected to remain off shore and meander around for a while.

 

Have a great Wednesday!

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Tropics Remain Hot; Tropical Storm Lee Is Born And Maria Likely To Be Named Soon.

...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS INTO TROPICAL STORM LEE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.5N 33.1W
ABOUT 655 MI...1055 KM WSW OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

Tropical Storm Lee will need to be watched and Maria will likely be named in the next 24 hours and it is to the ESE of Tropical Storm Lee.  Maria is forecast to become a major hurricane and could affect the Lesser Antilles again.  We will keep you posted and there is no immediate threat to land US Land.  I expect there will be scary graphics popping up in the upcoming days with forecast models.  Remember one model run means much less than a forecast.  It does look like it is going to be a very busy couple of weeks again.

 

1. (POTENTIAL MARIA) Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 700 miles east of the Windward Islands continue to show signs of organization, but it is unclear if the system has a well-defined center of circulation.Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm
could form at any time today or on Sunday while the system moves west-northwestward at about 15 mph.Hurricane or tropical storm watches could be issued for portions of the Lesser Antilles later today, and interests on those islands should closely monitor the
progress of this system. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.
Tropical Storm Lee initial forecast track

Tropical Storm Lee initial forecast track

Atlantic Basin full of tropical systems http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Atlantic Basin full of tropical systems

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Saturday Forecast Discussion: A beautiful weekend on tap!

Good Saturday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont. High pressure is in place and it will result in a magnificent weekend in the region.

As you begin the day there may be a few areas of patchy fog but it should not last very long. By mid morning we will be off and running with sunshine. Today will end up being mostly sunny for the vast majority with temperatures in the low to mid 80’s by late afternoon. One spot that could see a few more clouds could be along the Blue Ridge thanks to orographical effects.

 

Today’s weather continues what looks to be a string of nice weather for the rest of the weekend and into next week. Nighttime low’s tonight will be in the low to mid 60’s. We’ll have continued sun on your Sunday with mid 80’s possible. Infact the next several days we should see 80’s in the afternoon with 60’s at night. It is definitely a taste of late summer here in the second half of September.

 

This is definitely going to be one of the longer dry spells that we have seen in recent weeks.


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Have a great Saturday!

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Forecast Discussion: Friday, September 15th, 2017

A Look into the Tropics

There is not much cause for concern over Tropical Storm Jose at this time, although there is an outside chance that Jose may make a run very near the Outer Banks and the Northeastern United States. Still, the chance of Jose hitting the East Coast of the United States is less than 20% at this time. Additionally, Tropical Depression 14 has formed off the coast of Africa, but it is WAY too far away from us to have any concern about it at this time.

 

11 p.m. 09/14/2017 Advisory and Official Track on Tropical Storm Jose from the National Hurricane Center.

11 p.m. 09/14/2017 Advisory and Official Track on Tropical Storm Jose from the National Hurricane Center.

1800 UTC 09/14/2017 GFS Ensemble members for the track of T.S. Jose. Blue colors represent lower probability, while orange and red colors represent higher probability.

1800 UTC 09/14/2017 GFS Ensemble members for the track of T.S. Jose. Blue colors represent lower probability, while orange and red colors represent higher probability.

European (ECMWF) Ensemble members for the track of T.S. Jose. Blue colors represent lower probability, while orange and red colors represent higher probability.

European (ECMWF) Ensemble members for the track of T.S. Jose. Blue colors represent lower probability, while orange and red colors represent higher probability.

The Outlook Closer to Home

A major pattern shift is in store for our area over the next week, and it will likely bring increased temperatures and pleasant conditions for next week. As a result of an upper-level ridge setting up over the Great Lakes and Southeastern Canada, we should return to a more summer-like pattern, with temperatures returning to the low-to-mid 80s for the weekend. Temperatures should continue to slowly rise throughout the beginning of next week, with some areas reaching the middle and upper 80s by the middle of next week. Mostly sunny skies should dominate the forecast at least through the middle of next week, barring any radical movement from Jose. Long-range forecast models suggest that this pattern shift should stick with us for at least the next 7-10 days, so expect a prolonged period of near-or-above average temperatures and mostly clear conditions.

GFS Ensemble 500 mb geopotential height and geopotential height anomaly plots for the middle of next week. Notice the ridge (high pressure) setting up over the Eastern United States.

GFS Ensemble 500 mb geopotential height and geopotential height anomaly plots for the middle of next week. Notice the ridge (high pressure) setting up over the Eastern United States.

European Ensemble 500 mb geopotential height and geopotential height anomaly plots for the middle of next week. The ridge over the Eastern United States also appears in this model interpretation.

European Ensemble 500 mb geopotential height and geopotential height anomaly plots for the middle of next week. The ridge over the Eastern United States also appears in this model interpretation.

Have a great Friday!

Chase Scott Graham

Change is Coming

Good Thursday everyone! I hope that you have had a wonderful week so far. Today weather wise is looking fairly decent. We will have times of sun and clouds. The remnants of Irma will move into the Ohio Valley and that may spark a few showers over the area this afternoon and evening. Temps will be on the upward trend as we should top out in the mid to upper 70's. 

 

Change is coming in our middle to long term outlook. High pressure will set up shop over the the Southeast providing for sunny and warm days. In fact some days maybe hot! High pressure starts to set up in the area on Friday which will give us mostly sunny skies and temps. Northerly flow will limit any shower or storm chances to below 10%.  Saturday and Sunday we remain under the influence of high pressure, that will lead to a mostly sunny sky and temps in the mid 80's. So areas could reach the upper 80's. 

As we look towards next week the high pressure looks to maintain itself as we stay in the partly to mostly sunny arena with highs in the low to mid 80's. 

 

Tropics: 

Hurricane Jose is a weak category 1 hurricane right now and looks to weaken to a Tropical Storm over the weekend. The latest data has Jose turning to the northwest and moving well of the North Carolina Coast and a good ways off the Bermuda coast. 

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Looking back over the open Atlantic we are going to have to watch two tropical waves have just moved off the African coast and are moving into the Atlantic Main Development Region. The National Hurricane Center has both given both areas a good chance of developing. Something to watch over the next week or so. 

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Wednesday Weather Discussion: A return to warmer weather for the second half of the week...

Good Wednesday to everyone across the Western Carolina, we are at the mid way point of the week and things are gradually improving in the weather department…

As you head to work or school this morning be on the lookout for some patchy dense fog. Please reduce your speed as you hit the roadways and allow a greater stopping distance. By 8-9 am the fog will begin to dissipate and we’re heading toward a warmer day compared to the past few. There will be a mix of sun and clouds for your Wednesday with a stray shower possible (20 to 30 percent at best). High’s today will top out in the mid 70’s.

We’ll have continued mild weather overnight with lows in the 50’s. Thursday, we will be on the lookout for a few showers as the remnant upper level features associated with Irma finally lifts out of the southeast. With the moisture in place that might serve as enough of a trigger for shower activity, the best chance would be in the foothills. Everyone will see high’s in the 80’s on Thursday.


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Friday and the upcoming weekend is shaping up to be pretty good, in fact it will be a taste of late summer again. Afternoon high’s will spike up into the mid 80’s with moderate levels of humidity, night time lows will be mild in the 60’s. Its going be a great weekend to hit the pool one last time or spend time out on the lake with friends.

This general theme should last into the long range as there are no signs of any huge troughs moving into the eastern half of the country.

In the tropics, Jose is currently looping around in weak steering currents out in the Atlantic. There are no signs from our model data of Jose being a threat to the US, we’ll watch it for any possible changes but at this time we are looking at likely re-curve into the Atlantic by late in the weekend.

Have a great Wednesday!

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Irma Sets Her Eye On The Carolina's Including Local Impacts

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Good evening. It has been an extremely long and exhausting day for our weather team. This is what we love doing though and we are so proud to serve such a great part of North Carolina. 

Lets start with the facts....: 

     1) Details on the forecast are coming into clearer view now. Irma is likely to impact our weather and the likelihood of those impacts being significant is increasing.

     2) Now an 80% likeyhood of impacts from Irma

     3) 60% chance of those impacts being significant

     4) Time of initial impacts are moving up, now Sunday into Monday.

     5) Plans that you have worked on the last 2-3 days need to start being out into action. 

     6). Preparations should begin Thursday. 

Here is what is unclear still: 

     1)  How Irma interacts with a dry cold air damming event that will be ongoing Sunday into Monday. 

     2)  Exact location of landfall

     3)  How strong the Bermuda High will be and how much impact Josè will have on it.

     4)  How Irma will interact with an upper level trough diving South over the Mid South. 

 

Discussion:  

Hurricane Irma continues to be a powerful category 5 hurricane and she is moving along at a good clip tonight to the WNW at 16mph. Minimum Central Pressure is 914mb.  Hurricane force winds only extend out 50 miles from the storms center, as you would expect with such a tightly wound storm.  Tropical storm force winds extend out 185 miles.  The current motion is expected to continue over the next two days. Irma may fluctuate between a 4 and a 5 over the next coup,e of days as it goes through some restructure. No doubt it will remain a major hurricane.

Evacuations of Florida have started or will start (depending on where you are) tomorrow. Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and North Carolina are under a state of emergency by 8:00am Thursday. Locally here in NC that doesn't mean a lot yet. This will allow for extra shipments of gasoline to areas where evacuation routes are set. There is an on going gas shortage and due to the large amount of people who are being or will be forced out, gasoline could spike again. However we urge you not to go out and fill up every gas can and car you own. Instead you should minimize travel as evacuees head North. 

Irma looks like she could make an initial landfall at Miami as a category 4 or 5 major hurricane. Then it could move back over the waters of The Atlantic as it makes its run North. It appears it will stay close enough to Florida though that it would bring hurricane force winds from Miami to the Georgia and South Carolina Line. Landfall in Miami would be Saturday Morning and it would advance up the coast through the day, picking up speed. 

Hidden to the untrained eye is a upper level low pressure system that will dive South from The Midwest to The Mid South. At the same time a strong ridge of high pressure will drive some degree of dry air down the eastern slow of the mountains. As Irma moves NW into this air mass and the closed upper low opens up over Georgia Irma probably will be forced Norhtwest. Landfall chances are the highest from Savannah Georgia to Charleston South Carolina at this point. Irma arrives to a landfall sometime around Saturday Night or Sunday Morning. Sunday Morning Irma should start to turn more Northwest in response to a strong Bermuda High and an opening of the upper low. If the Bermuda High is weaker, the turn NW would be delayed.  The chances of Irma moving further up the coast is still possible although is becoming an outlier. 

How quick that turn to the NW occurs is key to impacts here at home in Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln, McDowell, and Rutherford Counties. If it is simontanious with landfall, which is looking more likely, then Irma could start affecting us with winds and heavy rain by Monday Morning. It is still too soon to know how high the winds will be or how much rain will fall but we are feeling more confident of a significant impact locally. Irma should be gone by Wednesday of next week. 

in closing here are a few graphics and a new update will be published Thursday Morning. 

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist  

Foothills Weather Network

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Irma Wednesday Night

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Category 5 Hurricane with winds around 185 mph. 

Official NHC cone

Official NHC cone

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Spaghetti plots are coming into agreement of steering this thing right into NC.  

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Official National Hurricane Center Cone

The Chances Of An Impact From Hurricane Irma Increasing

BROUGHT TO YOU BY ALLSTATE MORGAN AGENCY

Good Wednesday Morning. This weather briefing will focus strictly on Hurricane Irma and her potential impacts to our forecast area.  Please see Daniels Discussion for details on the near term. I caution you that there are still a lot of details to work out with this storm. Chances of an impact from Hurricane Irma are about 60% now.  

Irma's official track has shifted East overnight. That falls in line with all the model guidance. While this is great for the Florida Keys and Miami, it is bad news further up the coast. There are a couple questions I still have with this track indication though. One being that this storm is very powerful. It's a strong and well organized category 5 hurricane. It will take a lot to make her turn. If this is going to occur I would expect to see a brief stall out of Irma. For that reason I think overnight runs are too fast, bringing her in now on Monday instead of Tuesday. I still caution anyone who has put out any kind of track more than 5 days out. There is still great uncertainty as to what happens to her after day 5 but that will start to clear up through the day today. 

Tropical Storm José will not have a direct effect on our weather but it could help influence the eventual track of Irma. Josè looks like it help weaken the Bermuda Ridge and that is why we are seeing a trend back to the east. 

So what does this mean for our area? Locally it is becoming apparent that we will be impacted by Irma to some extent with wind and rain. To what degree is still to be seen and depends on the eventual track of Irma. Right now models indicate a SC landfall and a trough over Alabama allows the storm to work west. High pressure to the North should also hinder the storm from running too far North Monday and Tuesday. We will see if that happens. On our major operational models indicate Irma moving NW from the coastline up I-26. 

Given the model agreement we are suggesting that people start to prepare for possible power outages due to high winds and heavy rain. While there are still uncertainties about the extent of the rainfall and the impact from the winds, it is important to really start taking Irma's threat seriously.  

What do we as Meteorologists need to do today: 

     1) Evaluate new model data

     2) Monitor data from Hurricane Hunters

     3) Narrow down timing and impacts

     4) Update Emergency Management and Public of any changes

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What do you need to do today:

     1) Formulate a plan of action with your family.

     2) Gather needed materials for your emergency preparedness kit

     3) Purchase drinking water and water to cook with. 

     4) Get medications refilled

     5) Get non perishable canned foods, 3 days worth per person. 

     6) Don't panic. Just prepare. 

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Summarizing: 

Chance of Irma impacting our area to some extent: 60%  

Chance of our area seeing no impacts: 40% 

Forecast Confidence: 60% 

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist  

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5:00am Key points

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Active Tropical Atlantic

Confidence growing of seeing at least a medium impact from Irma across our viewing area.

Confidence growing of seeing at least a medium impact from Irma across our viewing area.

Severe Weather Outlook this morning highlightning Monday and Tuesday for Irma's arrival

Severe Weather Outlook this morning highlightning Monday and Tuesday for Irma's arrival

Official National Hurricane Center Track for Hurricane Irma

Official National Hurricane Center Track for Hurricane Irma

Wednesday Forecast Discussion: Taste of fall weather coming for the end of the week...

Good Wednesday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont. A lot of attention remains on powerful hurricane Irma as it moves through the Lesser Antilles. However for this blog post we will focus on the short term locally as a true blast of fall-like weather will roll into the Western Carolinas over the next 24 hours.

A cold front will be moving through the region later today. Ahead of the front yesterday we saw scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the coverage area. Most everyone picked up at least between a ¼ and ½ of rainfall with higher totals focused along the Interstate 40 Coridoor. With the front still to come through expect a cool day as clouds and a few showers may roam through the Western Carolinas during the day. Temperatures will struggle to reach the 70’s in a few spots.

All of the moisture will be swept out of the region tonight and the true grasp of this autumn airmass will settle in. Dewpoints and relative humidity values will plummet and by the time we all wake on Thursday morning there will be a much different feel to the weather here across the Foothills and Piedmont.

Widespread 50’s are expected by in the morning, the high country of Western North Carolina will be well into the 40’s.

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This air mass change will stick with us through a good part of the weekend. Thursday, Friday and Saturday should feature mainly sunny skies and mild temperatures in the 70’s during the afternoons with cool 50’s at night.

Once we get to Sunday, our attention will turn to Irma and how she might impact the weather across the Carolinas by early next week…we’ll have more on that in a blog post later today.

Have a great Wednesday!

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network

Hurricane Irma 5pm Tuesday 9/5/17 Update

BROUGHT TO YOU BY: ALLSTATE MORGAN AGENCY

 

Here is the 5:00pm updates from the National Hurricane Center on Hurricane Irma.  Key points, track, and timing all here.  Another robust update will be issued tomorrow (Wednesday Morning). 

5 Day Cone....Category 4 at the end of day 5 (Sunday) and still in The Florida Straight.  Any impacts here will be late Monday at the earliest but could last through Wednesday.

5 Day Cone....Category 4 at the end of day 5 (Sunday) and still in The Florida Straight.  Any impacts here will be late Monday at the earliest but could last through Wednesday.

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Key Messages for Irma as of 5pm Tuesday