Monday Overnight Futurecast...

Good Monday evening, a slow moving front and upper low will continue to focus rainfall across the Western Carolinas overnight. So far today rainfall amounts in the 1-2 inch rain have been reported across the Western Piedmont with amounts increasing into the 2-3 inch range along the Blue Ridge Escarpment from near Lake Lure northeast toward Jonas Ridge and Globe.

 

A Flood Watch remains in effect for the Foothills through tomorrow morning, flash flooding could occur along small streams if additional heavy rainfall occurs.

 

Current Radar and Doppler Rainfall Estimate:

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FUTURECAST:

 

Midnight

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Monday afternoon/evening Future Radar

Good Monday afternoon…the week is off to a soggy start and there will be little change coming up through the rest of the afternoon hours and into tonight.

 

Here’s a look at the current radar, a strong upper low across the Tennessee Valley and a surface frontal boundary has pumped abundant Gulf and Atlantic moisture into the Western Carolinas. So far rainfall amount have been in the 1 -1.5 inch range with plenty more rain to come. A Flood Watch remains in effect for parts of the area through Tuesday morning…


 

 

 

FUTURECAST:

 

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The Week Ahead: Rain, Rain, Rain

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation! Hope you're wearing your rain attire outside today or be ready to get soaked. For that matter- keep it handy because the rest of the week will have you missing sunny days. 

Near Term Forecast (Today and Tonight)

Here's a graphic we shared on social media earlier today issued by the National Weather Service concerning rain totals for our forecasting area. In case you missed it:

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Plenty of rain as you can see which is exactly why the NWS has also issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook:

"Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1058 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>070-072-SCZ008-241500-
Alexander-Iredell-Davie-Catawba-Rowan-Cleveland-Lincoln-Gaston-
Cabarrus-Cherokee-
1058 AM EDT Mon Apr 23 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for piedmont North Carolina and
upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Heavy rainfall will move across the area today and tonight. Flooding
may develop in low-lying and flood-prone areas."

At this point they have not issued an official flood warning for any of our counties, but a flood watch has been issued for Rutherford, Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, Cleveland counties through Tuesday morning.  We will be keeping our social media updated on this as our day continues on. 

While rain is the major event in today's forecast the other components is that our temperatures for today will be a bit balmy with high humidity, diurnal high in the mid 50's, low quite warm in the lower 50's or upper 40's. Easterly winds will have a few 20 mph gusts, but overall it will be a moderate wind day of 10-15 mph. Tonight will continue on with more rain and overcast conditions. Might be good to shelter some of your more sensitive plants.

Short Term Forecast (Tuesday-Thursday)

The synoptic weather event that is taking place today on through Tuesday is a slow moving low pressure that's mildly strong, but is full to the brim with moisture. This will dump even more rain on us on Tuesday with a small chance of thunderstorms in the mix as we see higher upper atmospheric shear with the passage of the jet maximum. At this point we don't see this as a high impact severe weather day. 

By Wednesday this low pressure will be mostly past us with a bit of dryer air behind it, but we are still looking at partly cloudy conditions and still a 30% chance of rain for the day. This looks to be the warmest day we will see this work week with temperatures in the low 70's during the day. 

Starting again on Thursday we will see a progression of a weaker shortwave trough that will bring in more precipitation probabilities (40%) for the calendar day of Thursday and Friday. Both days feature partly sunny conditions and temperatures in the upper 60's. 

Long Term Forecast (Saturday and Sunday)

Starting on Friday night we will see our upper level shortwave trough be scooped up by a full featured trough that is particularly dry. The energy and moisture of the shortwave will be thinned out making the weekend into something a bit warmer (mid 70's on Sunday). The thinned humidity will grace us with mostly sunny conditions, but also stronger temperature swings 25-30 degrees between the daily highs and nightly lows. At least it's not rain!

As for the next work week it looks like we will be in a dry spell as a ridge will build over the Plains, climb over the Apps, and generally shelter us from other big weather events until maybe two weekends from now. 

Thanks for reading! 

Try to stay dry. Remember to turn around, don't drown.

 

 

A Lot Of Rain To Wash The Pollen Away!

Good Sunday Evening. Dry high pressure off of the  east coast is providing Easterly flow into the region. That easterly flow is accompanied by southeasterly and southerly flow aloft. That is a very good setup for our area to receive a lot of rain.  Light rainfall is beginning to overspread the area from the South and West. Right now the dry air remains at the surface but the rain will overcome that pretty quick as we go through the night. Winds will be a little gusty in the NW Mountains overnight but nothing too tremendous. The lower elevations across the foothills should continue to see calm winds. 

 

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An upper level low is continuing to strengthen tonight as it slowly moves into the Southeast toward the Gulf Coast.  A weak surface low pressure is also evident and it continues to deepen as well.  High pressure moving into the Northeast will funnel cold air down the Eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. A true wedge scenario will develop as moisture overruns and falls into the shallow cold pool of air. Temps will fall back into the mid 50’s overnight and remain there through Monday. There is a big temperature gradient about 5000ft aloft and that will work to even further enhance rainfall toward daybreak Monday.

The highest rainfall rates appear to be over two separate areas....

The first is obvious and are the areas outlined by the Flood Watch.  The counties of Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, and Rutherford look to receive 2-4 inches of rain. The upslope area of those counties say from Old Fort, North Cove, Little Switzerland, Lake James, Oak Hill, Jonas Ridge, Collettsville, Roseboro, Globe, Patterson, and The Yadkin River Valley could see totals up toward 5 inches. The good thing is that these totals are over a 48 hour period and not all in 24 hours. The main concern is the possibility of main stem river flooding along the Catawba, Linville, John’s and Yadkin Rivers. While widespread flash flooding isn’t expected I can’t rule out some localized issues developing along the Blue Ridge. Elsewhere across our Eastern counties generally 1-3 inches appears likely.

The second area of heaviest rain appears to be along the coastal areas of South Carolina and Southeast North Carolina. Those high totals there come from convection Monday which raises a few questions as to how much moisture is robbed before being transported up into our area. Although that appears possible the overall forecast totals above look in good shape. Below is the Weather Predictions Centers 48 hour rainfall forecast ending at 8pm Tuesday. The bulk of the rainfall should fall tonight, Monday, and Monday Night. Tuesday details are below the graphic.

 

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Tuesday is going to be an interesting weather day and a day where the forecast resembles a very low confidence. The bulk of the rain should be lifting out of the area to the Northeast by Tuesday Morning. Left behind likely will be fog and low level drizzle as the Cold Air Damming (CAD) event remains in place. As we go through the day on Tuesday it appears the CAD should begin to break down allowing for some sun to pop at some point. At the same time the CAD is breaking down the upper low to our Southwest will be moving Northeast into the area.  Long term models differ greatly from the near term models with the placement of the triple point. The near term NAM moves this low up into the mountains and Foothills while the long term GFS and Euro take the low from West to East across the Upstate of SC. The two tracks have very different outcomes. Ahead of this low,  depending on how quick the CAD breaks down, there could be some heating and a huge surface temperature gradient. So along and east of this low, thunderstorms could errupt and train over the same areas time and time again. That would create a flash flood threat in the areas affected. Right now there is low confidence as to where this would develop. It could be from the lowlands of SC or it could be across the Upstate and Foothills. Just will have to narrow down that forecast tomorrow. High temperatures are a very tough call. Right now most of the area should remain in the low 60’s Tuesday. Cleveland and Lincoln could jump into the mid and upper 60’s if clouds thin out quick enough there. 

Either way by Wednesday the low is lifting away from our area. In turn it will dig a cold front into the area which would give the chance of a few showers and mostly cloudy skies through the day. Temps should be able to rebound into the 60’s ahead of this front. 

This front gets hung up across the area keeping our weather pattern very unsettled. We will keep scattered showers in the forecast through Saturday atleast. Not everyday will be a washout though as showers look more scattered than widespread right now.

 Weather Predictions Center Rainfall Forecast through next Monday April 30th. 

Weather Predictions Center Rainfall Forecast through next Monday April 30th. 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist

Futurecast Radar Overnight And Monday Morning.

Good evening. I hope your weekend has been a good one. We are going to start the work week off wet and we need it in more ways than one. These breaks in the rainfall likely will not be as pronounced across the counties of Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, and Rutherford as upslope flow should keep you guys in the rain all day. There could be a few breaks in the rain from time to time elsewhere. I’ll have a full weather discussion posted in just a little bit.   Tomestamps are in the top right of each tile.

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist  

Flash Flooding Possible in the Coming Days

I apologize for this late posting.

Models today have really started to hone in on a potential heavy rain situation Sunday Night - Wednesday. The average amount models are depicting are around 3-4” for the area.

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The European model shows the potential for up to 7 along the Blue Ridge Escarpment. 
This will need to be monitored closely.

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The potential for a flash flood event is rising for the early week time frame.

 

 

Scotty Powell

Twitter: @ScottyPowell_WX

Meteorologist 

 

Beautiful Weekend In Store But Build An Ark For Next Week

Good afternoon. This is a brief update on some stuff we are watching over the next couple of days and into the next work week.

We are always bringing bad news it seems lately so let me give some good news first. It’s going to be a beautiful weekend. Whether working or off take time to get outside and enjoy it. Temperatures are going to be very pleasant, topping out in the mid 60’s both Saturday and Sunday. That will come with full sun on Saturday and only partly cloudy skies on Sunday. We hope you can get out there and enjoy it.

Sunday Night and upper level low pressure system cuts itself off from the main storm track and moves into the Southeast. This means clouds rapidly build Sunday Night and rain begins thereafter. Rain should begin as light rain Sunday night and increase through the day on Monday. This rain will carry through the day on a Tuesday as that upper level low meanders around. Rain will be heaviest along the eastern and southern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Rain will fall very heavy at times on Monday Afternoon and Tuesday. It will be a bone chiller too as temps get stuck in the low to mid 50’s both days. Rainfall totals of 1-3 inches are possible in most areas. Along the Eastern and Southern Slopes of the Blue Ridge though rain rates will be higher and likely total out 2-5 inches. We have been dry for the last 5 days so the flood threat, while there, isn’t extremely high. If models trend up with the rain though flash flood watches may be needed later in the weekend.

Here is a look at the NOAA Weather Predictions Center’s Rainfall Forecast for the next 7 Days.

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Additionally, here is how much precipitation the two main medium-range computer models predict over the next week:

 European Model Forecasted Precipitation from Saturday, April 21st - Friday, April 27th.

European Model Forecasted Precipitation from Saturday, April 21st - Friday, April 27th.

 American (GFS) Model Forecasted Precipitation from Saturday, April 21st - Friday, April 27th

American (GFS) Model Forecasted Precipitation from Saturday, April 21st - Friday, April 27th

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist

 

 

Midweek Weather Briefing: Warm Wednesday followed by setback in temps.

Good Wednesday morning, it’s mid week and we’re looking at a nice weather pattern through most of the forecast period.

 

Looking at what is going on aloft, we have a stout upper low across the Northern Plains, that will move east across the Upper Midwest. Off the West Coast of the US we have a dynamic upper low slowly working on shore. Here across the Southeast US, we have slight ridging centered across the Gulf of Mexico. That slight ridge configuration combined with the trough in the Upper Midwest will provide southwest flow across the Carolinas today…and that will result in a spike in temperatures.


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The combination of southwest flow, little to no clouds and low humidity will result in a warn day across the region with temperatures jumping up into the low 80’s today. The warmth, low humidity and winds will also elevate fire danger today as the surface layer quickly dries out, please take extra caution if you are doing outdoor activities this afternoon.

 

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The warm spell will be somewhat tempered as a cold front will pass through early on Thursday as the upper trough moves into New England and amplifies. This amplification will help pull colder air into the Appalachians and the Upper Southeast US. Highs Thursday will be a good 10-15 degrees colder as a result. This type of weather pattern will persist through the end of the work week as the Western upper low will just begin to cross the Four Corners Region….


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Friday will be a carbon copy with cool crisp mornings but mild afternoons in the 60’s. As we get to Saturday you can see our upper low begins to move out into the Southern Plains taking the southern route. We may begin to see an increase in high clouds but the first half of the upcoming weekend looks to remain dry.


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By Sunday moisture will begin to increase to our south and west and as a result we will see more in the way of clouds and by Sunday night rainfall may be approaching. This is a fairly slow moving upper low and it appears it will have a significant influence on the weather pattern for the first of next week.

Have a great Wednesday!

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

 

 

 

High Impact Weather Outlook (4-15-18) 5:30 am

Good Sunday morning…today is a Weather Action Day as a vigorous cold front will slide through the region this afternoon and evening providing the potential for an organized severe weather event…we have important updated information in our slide show highlighting the risks...

 

 

The Storm Prediction Center has introduced an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for Severe Weather today for the majority of the FWN coverage area with Slight Risk (Level 2) expanded west through the North Carolina Mountains. Various modes of severe weather are possible today including damaging straight line winds and possible tornadoes along with heavy rainfall…Flash Flood Watches are now in effect for the entire coverage area.

 

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Here is a look at timeline for severe weather according to the latest computer model guidance…

 

 Future Radar 1 pm

Future Radar 1 pm

 Future Radar 4 pm   

Future Radar 4 pm

 

 Future Radar 8 pm

Future Radar 8 pm

 

Remain Weather Aware throughout the day as conditions may change by the hour. Have multiple ways of receiving your weather information and if severe weather were to strike your neighborhood have a plan of action in place and ready to be used.

 

Daniel Crawley ; @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network

Sunday Weather Discussion: The Week Ahead 4/15/18

Good morning to the Foothills Weather Nation. We hope you've been keeping close with us in the last couple of days to best prepare yourself today. Our team put out a new round of high impact weather graphics discussing the what, when, where, and how much at around 11 pm last night and we will be putting out another round of information before the day is done. While paying close attention to today as a particularly weather action Sunday, I'm going to give a quick discussion about what to expect for the week ahead. I'll do my best to keep it quick!

Short term forecast (Sunday-Tuesday)

Today an intense cold front associated with a well developed trough will be crossing into the area. This set up has been seen for there abouts of a week or so, but has really solidified in forecast within the last 48 hours. Here is the most recent graphic from the Storm Prediction Center: 

 Apr 15, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

Apr 15, 2018 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook

As you can see our area seems to be right in the bulls-eye on this one. So what do these labels mean? Did you know that it means different things depending how many days out we are looking? Here's what Enhanced means for a Day 1 Convective Outlook: 

 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_5-tier_Convective_Outlook_Info_files/image002.png

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/misc/SPC_5-tier_Convective_Outlook_Info_files/image002.png

So you see it's broken up into three categories: tornado, wind, and hail. With our region being in the enhanced and some of us in the higher country in slight you can see we have about a 5-15% chance of a tornado today, which is significant for this area. Wind- especially straight line winds which can be just as damaging as a tornado and hail are not out of the question of concern as well today in this frontal passage. Winds will be a bit blustery today with mostly southerly winds today of 12-15 mph and gusts of around 25 mph. This will likely be higher in higher elevations as many of you could already guess, and this could all become more severe depending on the specific cells that will pass through today. Expect somewhere between an inch or two inches of rain with a bit of local variation and a daily high in the low 70's. This deserves more information, but I will leave it for the Sunday specific discussions and get on with the rest of the forecast.

Monday our trough axis will be moving offshore and we will be in the dry pocket of a building ridge. Between Monday and Tuesday we will be locked into a bit of cooler temperatures with Monday's high in the upper 50's and Tuesday's high in the upper 60's. Nightly lows will be in the upper 30's and upper 40's respectively. Plenty of sunshine in this time, attempting to dry us out. Here's a synoptic look at our 850 mb temperature map for Tuesday:

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As you can see we are pretty locked in on this colder region still on Tuesday, but come Tuesday night into Wednesday we will have a harder pivot into the warmer temperatures as our ridge propagates eastward, shifting it's warm axis closer and closer.

Mid Term (Tuesday night into Thursday night)

Here we will see much warmer temperatures and still an abundance of sunshine thanks to a lack of precipitable water. Thanks to this lack of water we can see dry adiabatic heating and cooling which is weather folk lingo for the fact that the air can heat up and cool down a lot faster and therefore a lot more. Think how the Sahara can be 100 degrees in the day and 40 degrees at night. That's very dry, so that's not quite the extremity we will see. For Wednesday and Thursday we will see daily highs in the low 80's and mid 70's respectively, nightly lows upper 40's/low 50's for both days. Here's another 850 mb temperature map for Thursday

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Now if you were to do a side by side comparison of the map I showed you for Tuesday and the map I show you now of Thursday you might see that there are similar features in that we are in the presence of a trough with a massive one exiting on Tuesday and a moderate one entering on Thursday. So do we need to be on guard?

Long range (Friday-Sunday)

No, we don't need to worry about our weekend trough and cold frontal passage in the same way. This one will be less developed, has more reasonable gradients of temperature and jet maximums, and lastly it seems to more or less clip us from the north on the last few GFS model runs. Here's the last 850 mb map- I promise.

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Here's the map for Saturday. As you might be able to infer we start to feel our cold frontal passage by this time which seems to be a pretty small scale event all in all. Daily highs for the weekend will drop down into the upper 60's for the day and mid 40's for the nights. Saturday night into Sunday is where we currently have our sights set for a precipitation event. Here's a precipitable water map 

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You can see that nose of moisture jutting up into NC oh so conveniently during the end of our weekend. Try not to fret- this seems to be a quick ordeal so Saturday will have building cloud coverage with maybe some rain overnight into Sunday and Sunday should show us some of those famous April showers. 

But for a second if I may to go back and discuss Saturday's 850 mb temperature map once more looking at something else. There is yet another trough building in the Plains with full intentions of marching east as today's trough will do, and next weekend's trough will do. Can you see the longer scale pattern forming here? This is near textbook for spring time synoptic setups. As we encroach into summer territory our warm and cold gradient will diminish making these specific events less frequent. 

I believe that's plenty enough of information. So much for keeping it short. Thank you very much for reading.

-Sinead Lockhart

 

High Impact Weather Outlook (4-14-18) 11 am

Good Saturday morning, we continue to monitor for the potential of severe weather tomorrow across the coverage area. There will be multiple facets to this storm event including the potential of significant rainfall, damaging winds and even some isolated tornadoes...here are our latest thoughts as of 11 am...today again is a reminder not to panic but to go over any severe weather safety plans you might have for your home or business. And more importantly be Weather Aware and have multiple sources for gathering weather information during the afternoon hours tomorrow...

 

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

 Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

Saturday Weather Briefing: Severe Weather expected Sunday followed by a cold shot. Possible frost early next week?

Good Saturday morning, we hope that your weekend is off to a great start…

 

This discussion will break down the weather over the next seven days which features continued warm and pleasant weather today, a stormy Sunday and then one more blast of cold air to begin the new week only to be countered by a fast moderation…

 

 

The definite pick day of the weekend is today as southwest winds will continue to pump warm and increasingly moist air into the Western Carolinas. High’s today will flirt with the 80 degree mark in a few spots under partly cloudy skies.

 

Clouds will only increase as a powerful cold front continues to move east, that will result in a warm, early-summer like evening and overnight (60’s).

 

By Sunday clouds will increase and the chance of showers and thunderstorms will increase rapidly by around lunchtime and will last through the early evening hours. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds and a threat of isolated tornadoes…we’ll have a more detailed look at this later on.

 

One thing we haven’t focused a lot on to this point is the rainfall potential on Sunday, right now we expect a soaking rainfall event that could reach 2+ inches in a few localized areas by Sunday evening. Computer models continue to paint aggressive totals.


 GFS Model Projected Rainfall (Through Monday AM)

GFS Model Projected Rainfall (Through Monday AM)

 

 

This cold front will mean business once it passes through, the rainfall will end before midnight and northwest winds will usher in colder air just in time to begin the new work week.

 

After starting in the 40’s Monday morning it will be a struggle for temps to gain much ground during the afternoon on Monday. High’s may not reach the 60 degree mark in some spots under variable cloudiness.


 GFS Temperatures (2 pm Monday)

GFS Temperatures (2 pm Monday)

 

 

 This cold will linger into Monday night where the chance of frost is there especially in the Foothills on Tuesday morning as low will be in the mid to upper 30’s.

 

 GFS Model Projected Temperatures (Tuesday AM)

GFS Model Projected Temperatures (Tuesday AM)

 

Is this going to be the last threat of a frost? Its hard to exactly declare the all clear for those wanting to plant items for the summer but good news is that we are seeing signs of a sustained warm pattern next week and leading into the final week of April.

 

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Have a great Saturday!

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

Weather Ready Action Day? What’s That?

Well as we stare down the gauntlet of our first severe weather threat of Spring I wanted to take just a little bit of your time and help you know exactly how to prepare. Foothills Weather Network is a Weather Ready Nation Ambassador. That is why when we have high impact weather events we declare the day a “Weather Ready Action Day.”   Being a Weather Ready Nation Ambassador is more than just having that plaque on our website. It’s about teaching you how to prepare when high impact weather threatens our area.

When we declare a day a Weather Ready Action Day some may ask what exactly that means. We reserve these days for the highest impact weather events that threaten our forecast area. Our forecast area consists of Alexander, Burke, Caldwell, Catawba, Cleveland, Lincoln, McDowell, and Rutherford Counties. A high impact weather event is an event that brings a significant threat of damage to property and/or an event that could pose a threat to life. Ideally if you have a plan of action you can survive any weather event. 

So Sunday is our first Weather Ready Action Day because straight line damaging winds, tornadoes, and flash flooding are all possible. See the full briefing here. With this threat seemingly growing as we get closer to it we have pulled a few tiles from The Weather Ready Nation Website.  You can view this entire document here

High Impact Weather Outlook (4-13-18) 8:30 pm

Good Friday evening to everyone...we continue to monitor a very strong and dynamic storm system that will impact the Western Carolinas on Sunday...the threat of severe weather on Sunday looks to be increasing as of the latest computer model data... (click on slides to move)

 

 

 

Stay with the Foothills Weather Network as we will continue to update on the severe weather possibilities over the next 24-48 hours. Right now is not a time for panic but instead a good time to go over your severe weather plans. Know where to locate you and your family in the event of damage from high winds or a tornado...

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

 

Tracking Severe Weather For Sunday. Here Is This Morning's Briefing

Good morning.  We continue to track the threat of severe weather Sunday Afternoon.  There are still some questions we don't have answers to.  The first is how much cloud cover and/or rain occurs Sunday Morning.  If we get some rain it will help Western NC out by keeping instability very low.  This front has a lot of wind energy to work with so it will not take a lot to get damaging wind gusts.  Isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out, especially for Cleveland and Rutherford Counties.  Here are some more details

Weather Briefing: Friday, April 13th, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: A WARM WRAP-UP TO THE WEEK, A STORMY SUNDAY, AND A (Very!) BRIEF COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK

If you've been outside at all the past few days, you know that we've been blessed with beautiful spring-like conditions. Over the next few days, no significant changes are expected in temperatures, so the balmy weather looks likely to continue, at least through Saturday. The first two-thirds of the weekend (if you consider Friday to be part of the weekend) look to be good weather days. Today, we'll see mostly sunny skies with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s thanks to a combination of plenty of sunshine and a warm wind out of the south and southwest. Some areas near the NC/SC border may even reach the low 80s. More clouds will move into the are for the day on Saturday as the storm system which will cause all the mess on Sunday will begin to approach the area. Saturday still looks like a mainly dry day, with a few light scattered showers possible, mainly in Western areas. Temperatures will be similar to those on Friday, with clouds possibly holding highs 1-2 degrees lower.

 General Synopsis for Sunday's Setup overlayed on top of GFS Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure Maps for 8 a.m. Sunday, 15 April 2018.

General Synopsis for Sunday's Setup overlayed on top of GFS Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure Maps for 8 a.m. Sunday, 15 April 2018.

Sunday, on the other hand, will be the most interesting weather day for at least the next 5-7 days, as a strong cold front will push through the Eastern United States. Model forecast sounding profiles continue to suggest that widespread strong and severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon. The severe risk associated with this disturbance will be covered more thoroughly in the high impact weather briefing, so I'll focus on another equally important aspect of this system: the rain potential. The majority of the precipitation associated with the system on Sunday will be focused in a band of precipitation that looks to move through between noon and 8 p.m. on Sunday. Models still disagree somewhat on the total amounts, but 1-2" of rain looks to be the average amount of precipitation, with some isolated cells possibly bringing upwards of 4" of rain. The back edge of the precipitation will clear the area in the late hours of Sunday night into the early hours of Monday morning, with a few scattered snow showers possible once the front clears on Northwest-facing slopes above 4,000 feet elevation.

 European Model Estimated Moisture Concentration for 2 p.m. Sunday. Brown and Grey colors indicate drier conditions, while Green, Yellow, and Orange colors indicate moist conditions. You can see the Gulf Moisture being pulled up by this weekend's storm system in this image.

European Model Estimated Moisture Concentration for 2 p.m. Sunday. Brown and Grey colors indicate drier conditions, while Green, Yellow, and Orange colors indicate moist conditions. You can see the Gulf Moisture being pulled up by this weekend's storm system in this image.

 European Model Estimated Precipitation through 2 p.m. Monday, 16 April 2018

European Model Estimated Precipitation through 2 p.m. Monday, 16 April 2018

 GFS (American) Model Estimated Precipitation through 8 p.m Monday

GFS (American) Model Estimated Precipitation through 8 p.m Monday

As far as the beginning of next week, conditions will clear in time for the beginning of the new work week, but cooler temperatures will come with these clear conditions, as highs next Monday will stay in the upper 50s. Fortunately for all the warm weather lovers, this brief cool spell shouldn't last for more than a day and a half, as temperatures look poised to soar back into the 70s by the middle of next week. No significant disturbances are on the horizon for the 4-7 day time frame.

More information on Sunday's Severe threat will be posted on this page, so make sure to check back later.

Have a great Friday!

Chase Scott Graham

Spring is Here!

Good Thursday everyone! I hope that your day is off to a good start! 

We will keep it short and sweet today, as we continue to push out High Impact Weather briefings on the potential of Severe Weather late this weekend. 

Your Thursday and Friday will be carbon copies of each other as High pressure is in full control of the area. That high pressure is situated just off the Carolina coast. That is allowing Southwest winds into the area. This leads to a few things for us here in Western North Carolina. First and foremost will be the warm temperatures for the next few days. Most areas will be well in the mid to upper 70's and a few locations may touch 80 degrees. Also we will see more pollen in the area. Those Southwest winds will push all the pollen from South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, and Mississippi into our area. 

Pollencast).png

 

By Saturday we will see not only that southerly flow, but more humidity into the area. It will feel very humid on Saturday and with temperatures approaching 80, it may feel uncomfortable for some. That will lead to a strong cold front forecasted to move through the  area on Sunday. 

Severe Weather is possible on Sunday, still some uncertainty to timing and instability. We will continue to update the High Impact Weather Briefings, so keep on the look out for them. So just have in the back of your mind, that we may have some adverse weather late this weekend. 

After the cold front passage, we have a chilly Monday lined up. Partly to Mostly Cloudy skies will be the main trend, but some of the mountain communities could experience a little northwest flow snow. Temperatures will be in the mid to upper 50's and quite breezy. But the warm up starts on Tuesday as we approach 70 degrees, and by next Wednesday we are in the mid to upper 70's.  

 

Have a great day! 

 

Scotty Powell 

 

Severe Weather Possible Sunday. Here Is Our High Impact Weather Briefing.

Good Wednesday Evening.  Isn't it great to have a few days of Spring here finally?  Unfortunately Spring will not last.  A strong cold front will move into the region from the West on Sunday.  There are some details that need to be fine tuned.  One of the largest details we have yet to nail down is the exact timing.  That is why you will notice such a large time frame for this severe weather to arrive.  RIght now all severe weather players are on the table but the main threat will be a line of severe storms that could produce severe wind gusts over 60mph.  As we get closer to the event we will be updating this high impact weather briefing. 

Christopher White

Chief Meteorologist