Today’s Severe Weather Risk Is Marginal Across Western NC.

8:00am 

Christopher White - Chief Meteorologist

Good morning. This is a follow up to Daniel’s Futurecast that you can find here. The National Weather Service Storm Predictions Center has issued a Marginal Risk for severe weather today across all of Western North Carolina. Marginal Risk is risk level 1 out of 5.  We expect several rounds of thunderstorms today and the severe risk is isolated. Main threats are damaging winds and frequent lightning. The strongest storms could produce some hail.

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Friday Futurecast: Warm, Muggy with Scattered Storms

Good Friday morning… after dealing with a stubborn ridge of high pressure all week long things have changed here with the weekend almost upon us..

 

An upper area of low pressure located across the Midwest will slowly move east and become absorbed into the upper level flow. However spokes of jet energy along the southern extent of the upper low/trough will keep the Southeast US unsettled today…

 

 

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FUTURECAST

 

 

We will deal with different periods of shower and thunderstorm activity. The first will be early afternoon as storms will develop along the Blue Ridge and move east across mainly foothill sections of the coverage area. A few of these storms could be strong with heavy rainfall, gusty winds and lightning the biggest threats.

 

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With the dynamics in place, we may see additional showers and thunderstorms roll in this evening and tonight. The model guidance really seems to be picking up on additional activity sunset and later. These storms could be on the strong side as well. Fortunately there is no organized severe weather threat expected…

 

 

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Today’s high temperature will top out in the upper 80’s to around 90 degrees unless if you are impacted by an afternoon storm, those may cool off your local temps earlier. Skies today will be partly to mostly cloudy.

 

 

FUTURECAST TEMPS

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The Heat Is On!! Storm Chances Increase By Weeks End.

-Christopher White, Chief Meteorologist              Wednesday Morning 7:00am

Good Wednesday Morning to everyone out across the foothills. Hope you had a great nights rest and are ready for a scorcher.  If you were lucky enough to see a cooling shower on Tuesday Evening there will be some patchy fog there this morning.  Otherwise clear skies out there as seen on this visible satellite image as of 6:45am, as the sun is just up over the horizon enough to give us our first visible satellite image of the day. 

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Temperatures are going to soar through the day and as Daniel wrote in the day planner found HERE .  High temps today in the mid 90’s but dewpoints should mix out in the lower to mid 60’s today as opposed to being almost 70° yesterday. No doubt that some of those bank and car thermometers will be pegging out in the 100’s today again though.  Some high clouds will skirt through the area today that are currently seen in Tennessee on the Satellite image above. That could keep temps down a couple degrees off yesterday’s high temps as well.  Since some drier air is working in from the Northwest today, in response to the weakening area of high pressure over our area, storm chances will be down to about 30% today in the mountains and foothills.  Storm motions today from the Northwest will be more progressive than we have seen in a few days.  Any storm that can get going over the Blue Ridge today will quickly move out I to the foothills and then the piedmont.  The better chances for storms today actually are along that I-77 and I-85 corridors and points South And East.  That should be where the better chances of severe weather stay too but don’t be surprised if one of these storms that move off the mountains briefly pulse up and become severe.  The main threats today though are cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy rain. Any storm that becomes severe could quickly pulse up and come right back down creating a very localized damaging wind threat. Here is the SPC’s thunderstorm outlook for today. (Light green is general thunderstorm risk and dark green is a marginal severe thunderstorm risk)

 

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Chances for storms increase to on Thursday (50-60% chance) and then especially Friday (70-80% chance) as a series of disturbances swing through the area thanks to a driving upper level low over the Midwest. Going into the weekend chances for storms continue as well but will drop the chance back to 30-40% chances.  Temperatures remain hot on Thursday as we should reach the low 90’s again. Friday is looking better temp wise than at forecast time yesterday afternoon and I think we will stay in the mid to maybe upper 80’s for Friday due to more clouds and better rain chances. For the weekend temps should run in the upper 80’s to around 90°.

 

Chances for rain and storms co to us going into next week as well as weak disturbances make a run at the forecast area almost every day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mesoscale convecice System (MCS) develop and move Southeast into our area once or twice. Those systems are difficult to forecast a day out though, much less 6-7days out.  The do usually mean severe weather in the areas they affect though so we will watch that. 

Have a wonderful Wednesday and stay cool. 

Wednesday Futurecast: The heat wave rolls along...

Good Wednesday morning to everyone…the first heat wave of the summer season continues today with little change expected. High pressure remains in tact across the Western Carolinas and that will help limit storm chances today.

 

Isolated storm chances look to be relegated to the Foothills today and the immediate Blue Ridge is favored best as differential heating will be the primary triggering mechanism.

 

 

FUTURECAST

 

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With thunderstorm chances looking very meager today we expect another toasty afternoon with highs topping out in the low to mid 90's. With modest amounts of humidity in place, heat index values could approach 100 degrees in Cleveland and Lincoln County during peak heating. If you are outdoors for an extended time during the day, please take frequent breaks and consume plenty of non-alcoholic fluids...water and sports drinks are the best option.

 

FUTURE TEMPS

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Today should be the peak in the current heat wave as high pressure will begin to lose its hold on Thursday leading to slightly cooler temps due to more clouds and higher precipitation chances...

 

 

Monday Futurecast: June heat in full force...

Good Monday morning, it is going to be a hot start to the work week across the Western Carolinas. With plenty of sunshine and high humidity it will be sweltering today with high’s getting up into the low to mid 90’s by mid afternoon. Heat indices will be in the upper 90’s across Piedmont sections of the coverage area…

 

  Model Projected afternoon high temperatures

Model Projected afternoon high temperatures

 

 

Even with high pressure settled in, the amount of heat and humidity will be enough to spark a few thunderstorms, mainly across the Foothills and the immediate Blue Ridge. However any location has a chance at a storm today.

 

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This heat will remain in place for most of the week. Please be careful if spending extended amounts of time outdoors during the next several afternoons. Also be aware of your condition while outdoors, the chance of heat exhaustion is elevated in this kind of weather pattern…

 

 

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Daniel Crawley:  @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

First heatwave of the summer season underway...

 Good Sunday afternoon and Happy Father's Day…

A few days ago we gave you the head’s up on a potential heat wave that was going to impact the region and everything still looks on tap. The height of this heat wave begins today and will last through the first half of the upcoming week.

 

Looking at model guidance we are in a classic early summer pattern with higher pressures aloft dominating a large part of North America. You can clearly see that with the heights highest extending from the Southeast US into Plains and up into parts of Canada. The only parts of North America with lower heights is New England and Eastern sections of Canada.

 

Upper level ridging in our part of the world usually equates to hot, sweltering afternoons and warm muggy nights with only minimal relief from thunderstorms. That looks to be our forecast for the next several days…

 

 

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Guidance continues to indicates widespread 90’s for everyone is our coverage area with mid 90’s likely starting Monday afternoon through Thursday…here’s a sampling of latest guidance from a few locations in our coverage area.

 

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We may see a bit reprieve from the heat come next weekend but that would be at the price of increased thunderstorm chances…as always, check out the 7-day Forecast each day for details!

 

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

Saturday Futurecast: Hot and muggy weather continues...

Good Saturday morning, we continue to be in the midst of an evolving summer heat wave as high pressure aloft is settling in across the Southeast US. Meanwhile at the surface, high pressure to our north will slide out into the Western Atlantic Ocean, that will result in a light southeast flow.

 

The combination of daytime heating, high humidity and that light southeast flow at the low levels may be just enough to fire off a few thunderstorms this afternoon through the evening hours. The number of storms will be few but each storm could be quite intense with potential for strong winds. Microburst potential remains elevated as it has been in recent days…high temperatures will top out close to 90 degrees in the Foothills and in the low 90’s across the Western Piedmont.

 

 

 

FUTURECAST

 

 

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FUTURECAST TEMPS: 2 pm

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First heat wave of Summer 2018 just around the corner?

Good Wednesday evening…we are quickly approaching the start of the summer, about a week or so away. However mother nature seems to want a head start on the heat and humidity.

 

Looking at computer model guidance it appears the first heat wave of the season will begin by this weekend and will be in full force going into next week. A heat wave is defined by at least three consecutive days of 90-plus degree weather and all signs are heading in the direction that we will easily reach that criteria.

 

 

Heat waves in the summer originate when high pressure aloft develops and settles overhead the Southeast US. And sure enough by Saturday the beginning stages of that will occur, centered along the base of the Southern Appalachians. That will result in a strong cap aloft prohibiting cloud and thunderstorm development. That and light westerly winds at the surface will lead to a string of very hot days coming up with not much in the way of cooling at night…

 

 

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Temperatures will area-wide reach or exceed the 90 degree mark starting on Saturday and will continue through the first half of next week. As you can see on the two images below, above normal temperatures will gradually center itself across the Carolinas, and generally under the 500mb ridge…

 

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The European model and its ensembles look to have a firm hold on how this heat wave will evolve, its numerical data is showing daytime temps in the lower 90’s starting this weekend and getting up into the mid 90’s by early next week. A few localized bank thermometers could reach the upper 90’s on one of these afternoons but right now we do not see excessive heat as a big threat. Below are ensemble guidance for both Hickory and Shelby through the extended range.

 

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We will definitely keep an eye on the models over the next few days just in case of any changes may occur but our confidence is pretty high that the first heat wave of Summer 2018 is just around the corner!

 

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

Wednesday FutureCast: Warmth and a return of rain chances...

Daniel Crawley, Lead Forecaster FWN

Good Wednesday morning to everyone…after dealing with a cool and cloudy Tuesday across the Western Carolinas we are back to a kind of pattern more like the final days of Spring. The surface boundary and wedge has lifted northward and that means a return to warm and humid weather…

 

Temperatures for today will jump back into the low to mid 80’s by mid afternoon and there is a slight chance of a shower or thunderstorm…most will remain dry but a few spots could get some briefly heavy rainfall and frequent lightning...

 

 

FutureCast

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FUTURE RADAR

 

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Tuesday Futurecast: Hybrid Wedge to provide brief reprieve from heat and humidity

Good Tuesday morning, a late-spring time wedge setup has taken over the Western Carolinas for today. A backdoor front overnight helped spawned a cluster of heavy rain showers and thunderstorms across the region. That system dumped anywhere from around a ½ inch of rain near Marion to over 1.5 inches across sections of Burke and Caldwell County. There was also a report of golf ball sized hail last night in Cleveland County. The storms last night were also very electrical.

 

That boundary has moved south of the region today and as you can see on the satellite image the Western Carolinas are socked in with clouds as northeast winds has wedged us in for the day…

 

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FutureCast:

 

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With the exception of some mist/drizzle this morning, precipitation today is expected to be pretty much nil.

Slow Moving Strong To Severe Storms Rattle Homes In The Foothills Monday Evening.

1:00am Tuesday June 12, 2018

     Monday started off a mostly cloudy day across Western North Carolina through late morning. This kept thunderstorm development to a minimul early in the day across the Foothills.  As the sun started to make more of an appearance after noontime temps responded accordingly, jumping up to around 80° in most neighborhoods.  You could tell it was muggy too with dewpoints up close to 70°. Instability grew and surface base thunderstorm fuel bumped up to the 1500 j/kg mark.  Typically speaking it takes over 1500 j/kg of atmospheric energy to produce severe weather, but not always.  A backdoor cold front moved into the area bringing with it showers and thunderstorms just after 6:00pm.  This front was a slow mover and pounded the foothills with damaging winds, fierce lightning with thunder that rattled homes, hail, and torrential downpours.  

     Foothills Weather Network started issuing lightning alerts at 6:19pm Monday Afternoon for Alexander and caldwell Counties as the first thunderstorm began to threaten the area from the North.  “It was easy to see that the storms today were going to produce crazy amounts of lightning,” said Chief Meteorologist Christopher White. In his morning weather briefing on The Foothills Weather Network White highlighted that storms could become strong Monday Evening and that they would try to cluster together. “There is some weak sheer present too so a couple of thunderstorm clusters are possible,” White wrote.  

     By 7:00pm single thunderstorms began to develop into clusters of thunderstorms in Alexander, Caldwell, and Catawba Counties. As the slow moving cold front continued progressing Southwest it encountered unused thunderstorm fuel in the atmosphere which allowed storms to grow and prosper.

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     At 7:35pm The National Weather Service put out its first of many special weather statements for the area in Caldwell County. Storms began to merge and cluster together over Caldwell County. This was the first storm of the afternoon that would produce some small hail in Collettsville.  The storm was also nearly stationary. 

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     This storm prompted an expansion of the lightning alerts that were already in place to our next row of counties.  At 7:35pm a lightning Alert went into affect for Burke, Catawba, and Lincoln Counties. Storms were becoming quite strong s d were expanding in coverage by this point as well.  Positive lightning strikes started occurring just after this radar snapshot. 

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     By 7:48pm we had an entire line of thunderstorms developing along a boundary that had pushed out ahead of the backdoor front.  Storms continued to merge and expand in coverage and, in turn, the storms intensity was increasing as well. Lightning by this point was really starting to become more problematic. Lightning was running in on people’s homes causing damage to appliances and electrical issues. 

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     By 8:15pm positive lightning was beginning to pop upwards of 5 miles outside of the storm. The frequency of strikes was definitely picking up as well. That’s a good indication the storms are getting stronger. “In strong thunderstorms we look to a radar product called vertical integrated liquid. The higher the kilograms the better chance of seeing hail at the surface and the larger it usually is. 40-50 kg/m2 is a good indicator that hail is present. Most storms along this line were in that range by 8:30pm. 

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     By   8:25pm storms were continuing to expand East and Southeast along a line. Storms were going up all the way down to Mecklenburg County.       

 

 

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We were watching this entire line fire off and cautiously blighting our nails so we didn’t get into the quick. Two storms really had our attention. The first was the storm in Burke County. This storm pulsed up to 44,000 ft at 8:37pm over Oak Hill. We pretty well knew what was coming next. Sure enough around 8:41pm a microburst hit the Oak Hill Community. We are estimating about a 60-70mph gust that swept through there creating a swath of damage.  There was scattered damage as well as this storm went through McDowell and Rutherford Counties.   Trees came within inches of falling into a house located along Frank Whisnant Rd in Oak Hill (Burke County). “We are very thankful,” said Sandy Sisk.  No injuries occurred in this storm.  Many people in the immediate area of Oak Hill Elementary reported that the storm was the worst one that Burke County has seen in years. TJ Benfield was near Oak Hill Fire Department when the microburst hit the area. “It was absolutely the craziest storm I’ve encountered here in Burke County.  It actually shifted our car while we were sitting in it.”  The Burke County Emergency Communications Center was flooded with 911 calls reporting trees and power lines down. 

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      The second storm we were watching was moving out of the Cherryville Area in Gaston County, towards Kings Mountain and Southeast Cleveland County. At 9:16pm NWS issued a Severe Thunderstorm Warning for his cell as it climbed to 49,000ft.  This storm knocked power out and trees down along Hwy 150 in Southeast Cleveland County.  Follower Jacob Wallace posted this to The Cleveland County FWN Page “Headed up 150 from Shelby to Cherryville about 9:15 tonight was crazy. Transformers blowing left and right.”  We then received reports of hail the size of golf balls falling in Kings Mountain.  Multiple reports of trees and power lines down across that area too but thankfully no injuries.

     Damage to trees and power lines were also reported in Nebo and Dysartsville sections of McDowrll County.  Rutherford County also received some tree damage that brought down power lines Southwest of Rutherfordton.  All of today’s damage reports were due to straight line winds from microbursts.  It is important that you know that straight line winds can do as much damage as a tornado.  One microburst in a Eastern NC today produced straight line winds close to 90mph.  Take severe thunderstorm warnings seriously. 

     Foothills Weather Network makes your safety a priority before, during, and after severe weather events. Weather affects us all everyday and we want to make sure you are prepared for whatever the wind blows your way. In the mornings be sure to check out our full weather briefings for the day ahead and anything that could be coming. You having a plan can mean the difference between life or death in an emergency weather situation. You can check out our briefings here, http://www.foothillsweathernetwork.com/weatherbriefing/

As we get more damage photos in we will post those in our photo gallery here, http://www.foothillsweathernetwork.com/photo-gallery/

Christopher White

Chief Meteorologist

The hazy, lazy days of...late spring?

Good Saturday morning…the weekend is here and you probably want to know how the weather will impact your plans?

 

Well, we have a pretty stagnant pattern in place locally. A trough is moving on-shore the west coast early this morning while another trough is exiting off the New England Coastline. Meanwhile a very weak upper level low pressure is situated in the Gulf of Mexico. Here in the Western Carolinas we lie pretty much in between all of these features therefor the flow aloft is light.

 

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Easterly and now southerly flow at the surface has delivered humidity back to the region after going through most of the work week under pleasant conditions. This moisture was enough to help spark off a few showers late yesterday and the expectation is for more in the way of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. The main trigger will be differential heating along the higher terrain, so all eyes will shift to the Blue Ridge by early afternoon as a couple storms will perk up. These will be pulse-type storms…which are slow movers that develop, collapse and produce outflow to spark additional storms. Locally heavy rainfall and some lightning are the biggest threats from today’s activity.

 

 

 Future Radar (Saturday 3 pm)

Future Radar (Saturday 3 pm)

 

 

One thing is for sure, it will be on the warm side for today as temperatures will reach the upper 80’s to near 90 in the Western Piedmont by around 3 pm today…

 

 

 Future Cast Temperatures (Saturday 3 pm)

Future Cast Temperatures (Saturday 3 pm)

 

 

Showers and storms will last through sunset before tapering off, that will leave muggy conditions overnight with temps in the upper 60’s to around 70.

 

 Future Cast Temperatures (Sunday 6 am)

Future Cast Temperatures (Sunday 6 am)

 

Sunday will likely serve as a repeat due to little chance in the features both at the surface and aloft. Differential heating along with any outflow boundaries will be the trigger for afternoon storms. High’s again on Sunday will be in the upper 80’s to near 90 depending on location.

 

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979
Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN

Good Wednesday! The Dry Weather Continues....For Now.

Good Wednesday Morning. I hope your week is off to a good start. It is a pleasant morning out there with temps mainly in the 50’s across our area. Really refreshing.  Today’s weather consists of clear to partly cloudy skies as a weak backdoor cold front moves through the area. By evening the front should be to our south. We do not anticipate any rain from this frontal passage and I know that just breaks everyone’s heart. High temps today will start the upward trend with most areas topping out in the upper 60’s. Overnight tonight we remain dry with partly cloudy skies and temps falling back into the 60’s.

For your Thursday weak low pressure that develops over South Carolina tonight will meander toward Charleston. As it does so more humid air will get pulled North and that should lead to a few afternoon and evening thunderstorms. Those should be mainly confined to the mountains but one or two storms may drift into our Western foothill counties.  High temps Thursday will climb back up into the upper 80’s. Thursday Night any showers and storms should fall apart with the loss of daytime heating. Skies will be partly cloudy with temps only falling back to the upper 60’s to around 70°.  

Friday should be a partly cloudy day that becomes mostly cloudy with scattered storms in the afternoon. Some indications are that storms could become a little more widespread than currently forecast.  It’s something we will watch. Precipitable water values should be held in check although any area that does see repeated storms could quickly develop a couple of very localized flash flood issues. High temps Friday in the mid and upper 80’s. Rainfall generall should only range from a quarter to half an inch.

 

The weekend looks salvageable too. Showers and storms develop both afternoons. I still don’t see a large flash flood issue with any of these because there just doesn’t appear to be anything that would cause the storms to cluster up and train over the same areas repeatedly. High temps both days in the mid 80’s. Chance of rain 40% both days.

 

Next week has the real potential to be a very wet and very busy week. Rain chances are greatest on Monday and totals could jump up to 1-2 inches depending on where thunderstorms go up. By late next week the US model and the Euro to some extent show a new tropical feature moving North out of the Gulf and into the Southeast. This is something that has our full attention and you will see updates on developments of that system in later forecast discussions. Stay tuned

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist  

 

Wednesday Futurecast: How high will the temperatures go?

Good Wednesday morning, the midweek point is here and we’re still in the middle of a nice weather pattern across the Southeast US.

 

Today is all about the temperatures as we will have plenty of sunshine across the Western Carolinas and light winds…better get out and enjoy this before the muggies return!

 

 

FUTURECAST

 

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Monday Weather Briefing...

Good Monday afternoon…and what a beautiful day we have on tap! The moist tropical air that has hovered across the region over the past week-plus is gone and today is a very pleasant Early June day with temperatures in the 80’s with Carolina blue skies and dewpoints that are very pleasant…

 

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High pressure at the surface will be in control for most of the workweek, as you can see on the map the high will be centered tomorrow morning just west of the Appalachians and by Thursday it will be centered over the Mid-Atlantic and the Northeast.

 

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High’s all week will range from the low to mid 80’s with comfortable 50’s and 60’s at night thanks to the low humidity. By Thursday some moisture recovery may begin as the positioning of the high will being easterly flow off the Atlantic…it won’t be until the weekend before shower/thunderstorm chances return to the forecast.

 

But until then…get out and enjoy it!

The Week Ahead (6/3/18) Dry your eyes, drier skies

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation!

We have a bit of good news: We actually see rain free days ahead in our forecast! Hallelujah! We're excited to tell you all about it, but first the National Weather Service has issued a Hazardous Weather Outlook for today

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
430 AM EDT Sun Jun 3 2018

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northeast Georgia, piedmont
North Carolina, western North Carolina and upstate South Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight.

Scattered thunderstorms are expected to develop across the area this
afternoon and evening. Some of these storms will become severe with
damaging wind gusts and large hail. Gusty winds, cloud to ground
lightning, and brief, heavy rainfall will be possible with any
storm.

Near Term Forecast (Sunday)

Current conditions have us in the upper 70's with a daily high projected today in the upper 80's so we have plenty of heat to go. With the build of this heat we see that little pop in precipitation probabilities, but only up to 30%. What this says to us is that these convective storms can be potent, but they aren't expected to hang around or take over the map. In the same breath, we do see the same potential that the NWS sees in that what storms do roll through have plenty of potential to be severe. Fair conditions will likely increase in cloudiness for the later part of the day and then clear some time after 11 pm. Winds will be a mild 6-10 mph from the NW for the bulk of the day. Once these storms drive out tonight we will be onto our new weather pattern!

Short Term Forecast (Monday-Friday)

Return of the mid latitude jet stream! An upper atmospheric trough will distend down from the Great Lakes and Northeastern US, bringing up a little switch in our step. With our dear old friend making an appearance we see the strong south-southwesterly flow take a breather, bringing in northwesterly into westerly flow for our work week. This doesn't give us much reprieve from the heat- it's June, you know, but this cuts off the relentless moisture that has made all of this rain possible. For Monday through Friday day expect mostly sunny skies, no precipitation, highs in the mid 80's, lows in the low 60's, and light and variable wind. Ahhh! :) 

Long Term Forecast (Friday night-Sunday)

Unfortunately, all good things must come to an end and it's summer so what's June without some rain chances back in the forecast? We see our upper atmospheric trough slowly scoot out of the region and the reprise of southwesterly flow take over again. With this we will see a little jump in temperature into the upper 80's again, but only a 30% chance of precipitation for now for the weekend. At this time we don't see this to be some massive drencher, but persistence forecasts are a thing, so we will be on our toes!

Thanks for reading! Have a great week ahead!

 

Saturday Futurecast: Warm and humid with a few storms possible...

Good Saturday morning…the combination of warm weather and humid conditions will help produce a few showers and thunderstorms later today. The coverage of storms won’t be nearly as extensive as we have seen all week long but any single thunderstorm will be able to produce some gusty winds, dangerous lightning and locally heavy rainfall. Be on the lookout if you have outdoor plans later today.

 

With the increased sunshine, temperatures will soar up into the upper 80’s with a couple of those bank thermometers briefly reaching the low 90’s Make sure and have plenty of fluids available along with some shade!

 

 

FUTURECAST:

 

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FUTURECAST TEMPS 4 pm:

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Saturday Briefing: Evolution to a drier weather pattern to begin June...

Unless if you have been under a rock for the past 2-3 weeks, you are aware that the Western Carolinas and the Southeast US have been through an extremely wet weather pattern. A pair of storm systems laden with deep tropical moisture resulted in excessive rainfall, the pattern reached its zenith with the dangerous flash flood event across the Foothills earlier this week. This was a result of deep southeast flow thanks to the working tandem of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico and strong high pressure out in the Western Atlantic.

 

 

We have finally broken that pattern and are heading toward a more normal early June regime. The jet stream will re-orient itself over this weekend. The combination of a developing trough in the Northeast and a stout Texas ridge will yield northwest flow across the Southern Appalachians and Western Carolinas. The jet dynamics will have low level moisture to work with initially. Sunday has the potential of being active  thanks to a strong vort pushing through…

 

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Sunday could see scattered storms, a few of them getting on the strong side. Ultimately this feature will carve the trough across the northeast by Monday and push out the remaining low level moisture content. This is all going to set up a nice first full week of June as we will see an initial cool down but the bigger story will be a very noticeable lowering of the humidity…the first half of next week will feel very comfortable for early June standards!

 

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Here’s a look at some of the ensemble guidance as it shows a comfortable stretch of days starting Monday and it will last through the first half of the upcoming week. But it is June after-all and by next weekend a return of the heat/humidity along with a few afternoon storms are possible…

 

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Precipitation amounts for the next several days look to be quite slim…allowing water-logged areas to continue drying out.

 

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Have a great Saturday!

 

Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979

Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN