Good Thursday everyone!
The weather has been very tranquil around the area for the past few weeks. It has felt like fall with the cool mornings and dry days. The afternoon temperatures have been more summer like with highs in the 80's. No measurable rain has fallen over the area going on three weeks. That has lead to dry conditions over a good portion of the area.
We will continue that trend for Today and Friday. But changes are coming.
As of 8 am this morning Tropical Depression 16 has been upgraded to Tropical Storm Nate. Here is the 8 am Advisory on Nate.
So the question for us is in Western North Carolina is, what will we feel from Nate.
The answer is... Rain! Finally after what will be 27 days with out rain, we will finally see rain develop over the foothills Sunday morning and that will spread into the Western Piedmont by Sunday evening.
Their is still some disagreement in the models on where Nate will go, and how strong Nate will get. A few things that play into that will be how strong the Atlantic Ridge (High Pressure) will be, how far does west does it push Nate. Also before Nate moves into the area, their is another tropical wave that is affecting South Florida. That open wave will also help steer Nate west, but how far is not know yet.
By Sunday morning we will begin to have a southerly flow from the Atlantic Ridge as well as the counter clockwise flow from Nate. That will send an abundance of moisture into the area. That will spread as Nate continues to move towards the landfall somewhere from Central Louisianan and Florida.
Since the eventual track of Nate is not know yet, we can only go off of the National Hurricane Center track as well as the different model runs. Most of them take Nate just west of the Appalachians through East Tennessee. That will put us on the Right Front quadrant of the left over circulation of Nate. Monday into Tuesday we will see heavy rain, gusty winds, and we will have to watch the tornado potential.
Since we have been so dry recently. The concern is their for flooding but, not a major concern.It looks like a general 2-4" of rain will be possible through Tuesday based off the current thinking. That will likely change until this weekend.
For now enjoy the sunny weather!