FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, October 13th, 2017

SECTION 1: FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND

Before we get to the much-awaited pattern change in store for next week, we will have to endure a roller coaster ride of temperatures over the next three days. A moderately strong Cold-Air Damming (CAD) event will set up over the Carolinas on Friday, bringing cooler temperatures, increased cloud cover, and a decent chance for some rainfall. The CAD setup will begin to weaken by the late afternoon Friday, although increased cloud cover may linger into the early hours on Saturday. The northeast winds helping to maintain the CAD event will gradually be replaced by southwest winds as time progresses throughout the day on Saturday, which will allow for clearing and warmer temperatures on Saturday. High temperatures may make a run into the 80s in the southeastern foothills; however, most areas will come up just short of 80 for the high. The southwesterly flow will be enhanced on Sunday, pulling more warm and humid air in from the Gulf of Mexico in advance of the incoming cold front. As a result, temperatures will likely reach the low 80s in most areas on Sunday, with relatively high dewpoints making conditions feel more like July than October.

SECTION 2: FALL WEATHER FANS REJOICE! NEXT WEEK'S OUTLOOK

A relatively strong cold front will progress eastward from the Great Plains across to the Eastern United States over the second half of the weekend. Impacts from the front will make their way to our area by late Sunday night into Monday morning. While the front will carry significant precipitation with it while it is off to our west, the mountains, along with unfavorable diurnal timing, will likely reduce the precipitation to light to moderate showers as it moves through Western North Carolina. The most immediate (and welcome) impact from the front will be the drying out of the atmosphere. Additionally, the front will bring some refreshing crisp air with it, keeping high temperatures restrained in the upper 60s and lower 70s and low temperatures in the 40s for most of early next week. While the air behind the front does not appear to be super cold at this moment, it will certainly be a welcome relief from the summer-like weather we have seen over the past few days. No significant weather looks to follow the cold frontal passage, so several days of comfortable sunny weather appear to be in store for our area as we head into the middle and late part of next week. A moderate warming trend may occur by the end of next week.

ECMWF Forecasted Dewpoint Temperatures for Saturday afternoon, 10/14/2017. Dark green/blue colors represent moist air, while brown colors represent dry air

ECMWF Forecasted Dewpoint Temperatures for Saturday afternoon, 10/14/2017. Dark green/blue colors represent moist air, while brown colors represent dry air

ECMWF Forecasted Dewpoint Temperatures for Tuesday afternoon, 10/17/2017. The brown colors over our area represent much drier air.

ECMWF Forecasted Dewpoint Temperatures for Tuesday afternoon, 10/17/2017. The brown colors over our area represent much drier air.

ECMWF Forecasted Low Temperatures Tuesday morning, 10/17/2017/ Most areas in WNC are in the low to mid 40s. 

ECMWF Forecasted Low Temperatures Tuesday morning, 10/17/2017/ Most areas in WNC are in the low to mid 40s. 

ECMWF Forecasted Low Temperatures Wednesday morning, 10/18/2017. Again, low temperatures in WNC will be in the low to mid 40s.

ECMWF Forecasted Low Temperatures Wednesday morning, 10/18/2017. Again, low temperatures in WNC will be in the low to mid 40s.

SECTION 3: THE LATEST FROM THE TROPICS

Hurricane Ophelia has officially become the tenth consecutive Atlantic Basin storm to reach Hurricane status in what has been an active season. Ophelia could make a rare Ireland landfall as a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane early next week as it transitions from a tropical to an extratropical storm. Otherwise, conditions closer to home in the tropics are calm at the moment, with little suggestion of development in the near future.

Have a great weekend!

Chase Graham