SECTION 1: A WARM AND DRY WEEKEND
Conditions should remain warm and sunny during the days and clear and crisp at night for at least Friday and Saturday as high pressure remains in the vicinity. Southwest flow will begin Saturday afternoon as high pressure slowly begins to exit the area. High temperatures will be in the middle and upper 70s, with a few areas reaching the lower 80s, while lows will remain in the 40s. By Sunday, an upper-level cut-off low will begin to develop over the central United States, which will be the source of our next significant weather disturbance.
SECTION 2: SIGNIFICANT RAIN POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT WEEK
As was mentioned in the previous section, a cut-off low will develop on Sunday and move toward our area as we head into the day on Monday. In advance of this slow-moving synoptic-scale feature, a strong moist flow will develop out of the south and southwest. This moist flow combined with an incoming frontal disturbance will provide the mechanism for creating significant amounts of precipitation. Eventually, this area of upper-level low pressure will be absorbed into the larger synoptic-scale flow, allowing the precipitation to move off the East Coast. If the cut-off low is absorbed into the synoptic-scale trough sooner, the heavy precipitation axis will occur to the west, leaving us with only moderate precipitation amounts. If the cut-off low is absorbed into the broader flow later, the heavy precipitation axis may impact us as well as areas in Central and Eastern North Carolina. As of Friday morning, most mid-range forecast models are anticipating somewhere between 1.5 and 3.5 inches for our area between Monday morning and Wednesday morning.
SECTION 3: ANOTHER SHOT OF COLD AIR LATER NEXT WEEK
Once the rain that will impact our area Monday and Tuesday moves off to the east, it will be replaced by cool and dry air coming down from Canada. Temperatures in the middle and latter half of next week should fall considerably, with some high elevations possibly recording their first sub-freezing low temperature.
Have a great Friday!
Chase Scott Graham