Late October weather pattern settling in...Rain chances followed by colder weather.

Good Saturday to everyone across the Foothills and Western Piedmont…

 

Fall is definitely in the air and by looking at the weather charts early this morning the typical wild weather swings for this time of the year look to be in order.

 

At least for today we have one more really nice day. It should be mostly sunny region-wide this afternoon with temperatures in the mid to upper 70’s. Conditions will remain fair tonight with 40’s and low 50’s expected.

 

Sunday is the first in change for the forecast period. A deep trough of low pressure will be progressing through the middle-tier of the country. The combination of the trough and a retreating ridge of high pressure will result in developing southwest flow across the Southeast at the upper levels while a slight easterly flow continues at the surface. Here locally this will all equate to an increase in high cloudiness to filter out the sunshine. Temperatures will be a couple degrees cooler on Sunday as a result.

 

This trough continues to shift eastward Sunday night and Monday and will likely begin to cut off at the base across the Mid-South Region, surface winds will finally start to veer around to the southeast at the same time. This will accelerate moisture transport going into the start of the work week.

 

All signs continue to lean toward a significant rainfall event starting Monday and lasting through the morning hours of Tuesday. Upper trough/cutoff, a surface front and developing surface low along the front will all work in tandem to bring wet weather to the Western Carolinas. Computer models have been persistent in showing a solid rain event for the entire coverage area. Our current thinking is that a widespread 1-2 inch rain will occur with this storm system, with localized spots of 2-3 inches possible. By late Tuesday the front and trough will swing through ending rain chances…

 

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This next trough is going to deliver the coldest airmass of the fall season to this point. Northwest winds will be in full force on Tuesday night driving cold air back in. Looking at the upper level charts, the freezing line at 850 mb (approx… 5,000 ft) will enter the Western Carolinas for the first time this autumn season. With clear skies and cold air being advected in Tuesday night expectations are for a chilly start on Wednesday. Current model data indicates low’s around 40 on Wednesday morning…don’t be surprised if future guidance trends colder as we get closer to that timeframe. Frost potential will again be there on Wednesday and Thursday mornings. The biggest impact from this cold may be felt during the day Wednesday where a good part of the coverage area will fail to reach the 60 degree mark.

 

 

For our friends in the mountains, frost and freeze conditions are likely for the mid week and on the high peaks (Mt. Mitchell, Grandfather, Sugar, Beech) a few snow flakes are possible on northwest flow.

 

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We are definitely finishing the month of October on a more seasonal note compared to the way it started. Ensemble guidance shows no drastic warm-up heading into the last few days of October…

 

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Have a great Saturday!

 

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network