FORECAST DISCUSSION: FRIDAY, OCTOBER 27TH, 2017

SUN, RAIN, THEN COLD: A LOOK AHEAD AT THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND

Before the topsy-turvy weather that we are expecting for Saturday and Sunday moves in, we will have another pleasant weather day on Friday. Mostly clear skies and a southwest flow will allow temperatures to recover from a chilly start up into the upper 60s and lower 70s. Pleasant conditions will continue into Friday night, with clouds beginning to roll in after sunset.

Saturday will be the most interesting day weather-wise in the upcoming period. Recent model trends suggest precipitation will now arrive later on Saturday afternoon. Currently, it looks like cloudy conditions will be present over the area Saturday morning, with a few areas in far western areas beginning to see a few showers move into the area in the early afternoon. By 4:00, rain should overspread the Western Counties, with the Eastern Counties seeing scattered rain showers. Rain should overspread the entire area by sunset Saturday evening, continuing into the early overnight hours. Most of the precipitation will have exited the area by sunrise Sunday morning, with a slight chance that a lingering shower may be left around. While we will not see as much widespread heavy precipitation with this event in comparison to the rain we received this past Monday, some areas will still see one and a half to two inches of rain Saturday evening into Sunday morning, with most areas seeing at least a half an inch of rain.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model Predicted Precipitation for 2:00 p.m. Saturday afternoon.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model Predicted Precipitation for 2:00 p.m. Saturday afternoon.

ECMWF (European) Model-Estimated Precipitation for Saturday Night and Sunday Morning. This model generally shows 0.5"-1", with some areas seeing 1.5"+

ECMWF (European) Model-Estimated Precipitation for Saturday Night and Sunday Morning. This model generally shows 0.5"-1", with some areas seeing 1.5"+

GFS (American) Model-Estimated Precipitation for Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. This model shows slightly more precipitation overall, with less precipitation concentrated along the mountain ridges.

GFS (American) Model-Estimated Precipitation for Saturday Night into Sunday Morning. This model shows slightly more precipitation overall, with less precipitation concentrated along the mountain ridges.

 

Once the rain moves out of the area Sunday morning, cold conditions will move in to replace it. Temperatures will be exceptionally cool Sunday afternoon into Monday morning, with many areas staying in the 50s Sunday afternoon and falling below the freezing mark Monday morning. Chilly conditions will remain over the area throughout the beginning of next week, although a warming trend will begin by Tuesday as conditions moderate.

ECMWF-Forecasted Synoptic-scale setup for Sunday afternoon. 

ECMWF-Forecasted Synoptic-scale setup for Sunday afternoon. 

Have a great Friday!

-Chase Scott Graham