FORECAST DISCUSSION: Friday, October 6th, 2017

RETURNING TO THE TROPICS: NATE'S IMPACT ON THE CAROLINAS

After a week of relative quiet in the tropics, things have turned active once again with the formation of Tropical Storm Nate. The current forecast track takes Nate over the Yucatan Peninsula today and into the Gulf of Mexico by Saturday Morning. Once Nate reaches the Gulf, moderate intensification is expected to occur, and Nate could be the third hurricane to hit the Mainland United States this season. At this time, there is still a little bit of model uncertainty as to the exact track of Nate; however, it is almost certain that a Southeastern United States landfall will occur some time Saturday Night or Sunday Morning.

18 UTC 10/5/2017 GEFS Track Probability estimates. Red and orange colors represent higher probabilities of the track moving over the area. This has an E. Louisiana landfall. 

18 UTC 10/5/2017 GEFS Track Probability estimates. Red and orange colors represent higher probabilities of the track moving over the area. This has an E. Louisiana landfall. 

12 UTC 10/5/2017 European Ensemble Track Probability estimates. Red and orange colors represent a higher probability of the track moving over the area. While this also has an E. Louisiana landfall, the storm does not track as much to the east after making landfall.

12 UTC 10/5/2017 European Ensemble Track Probability estimates. Red and orange colors represent a higher probability of the track moving over the area. While this also has an E. Louisiana landfall, the storm does not track as much to the east after making landfall.

National Hurricane Center Track 06 UTC 10/6/2017

National Hurricane Center Track 06 UTC 10/6/2017

 

Although it is unlikely that wind or severe weather will be of significant concern for our area, the remnants of Nate could bring some beneficial rain to our area. The track will be crucial to determining exactly how much rainfall we see. If the track shifts further west than the current track, we could see less precipitation overall. However, if we see an eastward shift in the track, more precipitation could be in store for our area. Right now, it looks like the rain will begin on Saturday in the form of widely-scattered showers. Fortunately, it does not look like Saturday will be a complete washout at this time. The same cannot be said for Sunday, as rain should overspread the area for most of the day. As the center of the storm passes to our east Monday, we could see the bulk of the precipitation as long as the center of the storm remains relatively close to Western North Carolina. All in all, the best precipitation estimates would be for 1 inch in the southeastern corner of our area up to 3 inches in the west and northwestern parts of the area.

 

12 UTC 10/5/2017 European Model Precipitation Forecasts for Nate. This model generally forecasts 1-3" for our area.

12 UTC 10/5/2017 European Model Precipitation Forecasts for Nate. This model generally forecasts 1-3" for our area.

00 UTC 10/6/2017 GFS Model Precipitation Forecasts for Nate. This model generally forecasts 2-4" for our area.

00 UTC 10/6/2017 GFS Model Precipitation Forecasts for Nate. This model generally forecasts 2-4" for our area.

After Nate moves through the area, some residual moisture may linger in our area into the middle of the week. Temperatures should also rebound as we head into the middle of next week.

Thanks for reading!

-Chase Scott Graham