Good Monday Morning! I hope everyone had a great weekend. This week will be much drier than last week. I’m sure that is welcome news to a lot of people. It’s very wet around here and most of our area is anywhere from 7 to 17 inches above normal in the precipitation department. A huge recovery from where we were at just last year.
Lets talk about the upcoming weather. It will be a week of changes.
Now that the fog and low stratus have burned off we will feature sunny skies and warmer temps. Most areas will get into the low and mid 60’s. Tonight temps will cool back down and quickly after the sun sets this evening. A slightly drier shot of air will filter in tonight allowing those temps to drop down to around 40° by sunrise Tuesday.
Tuesday high pressure will be centered to our North. A few models want to briefly and weakly wedge us in Tuesday Afternoon But I believe that the clouds are overdone. We will feature a few more clouds on Tuesday but only partly cloudy. There is the slightest chance that a brief sprinkle gets rung out on the elevated eastern slopes of the Blue Ridge. Even there, only trace amounts can be forecast. Temps will be cooler though, only topping out in the mid to upper 50’s.
On Wednesday a cold front will approach our area ahead of the next digging trough. We start out in the mid and upper 30’s. Mostly clear skies will allow temps to rise quick after sunrise. There may be enough energy from the front to ring out a shower on the western slopes of the Blue Ridge by Wednesday night but we are staying dry across our forecast area. High temps Wednesday will be in the mid 50’s again.
Thursday will be a calm day with ample sun and temps warming back into the 60’s.
Our current 7 day has rain showers arriving Friday but we are going to back those showers and the cold front’s arrival back to Saturday. That should make for a great Friday with temps gettin up to around 70°. A few locations may tickle the low 70°’s as warm air advects North ahead of Saturday’s front.
The cold front arrives Saturday with a vast. Short lived showers will give way to high winds across the area. It appears winds may reach 65-70 mph across the higher elevations of the mountains. Down across our forecast area we will go conservative with winds gusting to 50mph at times, especially Saturday Afternoon. This is in response of what looks to be a very strong area of low pressure deepening over the Great Lakes and then moving East. Winds will be gusty for about 12-16 hours it looks like right now. That low drags the cold front and showers through on Saturday and behind it that torrent of wind funnels in much colder weather for the end of the forecast period.
Its hard to believe but next week is Thanksgiving and the busiest travel time of the year. Next week looks cold with a brief warm up mid week. Then another amplified cold front approaches for Thanksgiving bringing in temps behind it that could be 20-30° below average. Our average high is 61-64° next week so you can do the math. Lots of time to work those forecast details out.
Potential winds late this week. (Days across bottom of chart. MPH up left axis.)
Model precipitation and temps the next 10 days.