FORECAST DISCUSSION: FRIDAY, NOVEMBER 3RD, 2017

SECTION 1: AN INTERESTING FORECAST FOR THE WEEKEND

Before we get into the challenging forecast for Saturday, Friday will be a warm and mostly sunny day. Southwest flow will allow for temperatures to soar well above average, into the middle and upper 70s. By Friday evening, some clouds will begin to move into the area as a weak disturbance moves into the area.

On Saturday, the great forecast challenge is how strong the Cold-Air Damming will be. The Global Forecast Models like the GFS and the European Model have suggested a strong cold-air damming setup, keeping temperatures in the 50s during the day on Saturday. Mesoscale models over the past few days have suggested that the cold air will not move as far south, keeping southern areas in the mid-to-upper 60s while northern areas remain in the upper 50s. However, this morning's suite of models have moved closer to the solution proposed by the global models, suggesting that temperatures will remain cool on Saturday. Regardless, cloud cover will be fairly widespread during the day Saturday, and there will be a few isolated showers scattered about the area.

On Sunday, there is some suggestion that the Cold-Air Damming setup could stick around in a weakened form, possibly keeping temperatures down again during the afternoon. Cloud cover should remain fairly thick on Sunday, with a few peeks of sunshine possible in the afternoon.

Image 1. European Model Forecasted Temperatures for 2 p.m. Saturday.

Image 1. European Model Forecasted Temperatures for 2 p.m. Saturday.

Image 2. North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model Forecasted temperatures for 2 p.m. Saturday.

Image 2. North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model Forecasted temperatures for 2 p.m. Saturday.

SECTION 2: A WARM START TO THE WEEK, WITH A POSSIBLE COOL DOWN

Looking forward to the beginning of next week, southwest flow will begin to dominate again as a ridge of high pressure moves over the area for Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures will be above normal, with high temperatures likely to stay in the mid-70s on Monday and Tuesday. By the middle of the week, a cold front looks likely to drop out of the Ohio Valley, bringing a significant chance of rain and cooler temperatures with it. There is some model disagreement as to how quickly this system will move through the area, with the GFS Model showing a faster system and the European Model showing a slower system. While this cold shot should not be as strong as the most recent cool down, further troughing (allowing cold air) appears likely as we head into the 10-14 day time frame. 

Image 3. GFS Forecasted 500-millibar height anomalies for Wednesday Morning. Red colors represent warmer temperatures while Blue colors represent cooler temperatures.

Image 3. GFS Forecasted 500-millibar height anomalies for Wednesday Morning. Red colors represent warmer temperatures while Blue colors represent cooler temperatures.

Image 4. ECMWF Forecasted 500-millibar height anomaly for Wednesday evening. Blue colors represent cooler temperatures while Orange colors represent warmer temperatures.

Image 4. ECMWF Forecasted 500-millibar height anomaly for Wednesday evening. Blue colors represent cooler temperatures while Orange colors represent warmer temperatures.

Image 5. European Model Forecasted 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Image 5. European Model Forecasted 7-Day Precipitation Forecast

Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham