Weather Discussion: Friday, December 15th, 2017

HIGHLIGHTS: A NICE SATURDAY, SHOWERS POSSIBLE SUNDAY, A WARM START TO THE WEEK

The lingering effects of a cold front that moved through the area on Thursday will continue through the first half of the weekend, as calm conditions will continue over the area on Saturday. Clear skies will allow for temperatures to plummet into the low-to-mid 20s on Saturday morning, although sunny skies on Saturday will also allow for temperatures to climb up near the 50 degree mark. All things considered, Saturday will be a beautiful day considering that it is mid-December. Clouds will begin to increase Saturday night, which should help to keep temperatures slightly warmer. Lows Sunday morning will end up in the upper 20s. Skies on Sunday morning should be partly-to-mostly cloudy, although rain does not appear to be likely if you're heading out to church Sunday morning. Short-range models are indicating that a slight chance of showers is possible Sunday afternoon. Regardless, cloudy skies will take hold over the area and precipitation amounts (if they occur) will be light. Temperatures on Sunday will be held in check by the cloud cover, with highs topping out around the 50 degree mark once again.

 North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecasted precipitation for Sunday, 17 December at 4:00 p.m.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) forecasted precipitation for Sunday, 17 December at 4:00 p.m.

 

Small impulses of precipitation will move up through the southeastern states early next week. However, the mainly zonal flow that will be present over the eastern half of the United States will prevent much of the precipitation from making it up into our area. As the result of a pattern shift, we will finally find ourselves in the warm sector of the ridge-trough setup. Current model guidance suggests that temperatures will likely make it well into the 50s and 60s on Monday and Tuesday. The ridge over the Southeastern United States will relax as we head into the middle of next week, and temperatures will follow suit. Temperatures will likely settle in the mid 50s for highs on Wednesday and Thursday. The next major disturbance appears to be heading for our area late next week, and the upper-level trough that will sit over the Western United States for most of next week will move toward our area.

 European Model (ECMWF) forecasted 500 mb heights for early next week.

European Model (ECMWF) forecasted 500 mb heights for early next week.

 European Model (ECMWF) forecasted 500 mb heights for late next week. Notice the deepening of the trough in the middle of the United States and Canada. A cold front would likely result in advance of the black line drawn on the map.

European Model (ECMWF) forecasted 500 mb heights for late next week. Notice the deepening of the trough in the middle of the United States and Canada. A cold front would likely result in advance of the black line drawn on the map.

Have a great Friday!

Chase Scott Graham