Winter Weather Theat Late Week Jumps Off The Map; Much Bigger Story Will Be Cold Air

Good afternoon.  A beautiful day out there but chilly and highs only top out in the upper 30's to low 40's across the area.  High pressure in firm control of the weather today.  Tonight a weak disturbance moves off to the South and East of the area.  Moisture stays too far and East and South to affect our area so our forecast remains dry through the night.  Temps will fall well into the mid 20's tonight.  Wednesday will feature partly cloudy skies as that wave of energy moves off to the East to sea.  High temps Wednesday just a degree higher than those seen today. 

Thursday will start out clear with temps in the morning hours starting around 20 degrees.  Through the day clouds will increase slightly ahead of a weak disturbance that will ultimately miss our area to the North and South.  Given more sunshine that previously thought will allow temps with tonights forecast package to advertise slightly warmer conditions on Thursday Afternoon.  Warmer is a relevant term though, still not getting out of the 30's. 

As the southern stream system slides by south of our area we are also going to move precipitation chances from Friday's forecast.  The dynamics needed to tap gulf moisture just aren't going to be present.  Certainly missing a good opportunity for snow or frozen precipitation.  High temps under partly cloudy skies Friday will top out in the upper 30's again. 

Good agreement with the models going though the upcoming weekend and we will keep it dry.  A dry cold front will sweep by to our North on Saturday Night and that may set off a few mountain snow showers.  This will set the stage for a mainly clear Sunday but very cold. Temps may not make it above freezing. 

Model agreement then spars and the GFS appears to be the wetter outlier solution right now.  It has however been consistent with dropping a low down through the Rockies and then tapping moisture from the Gulf.  However there are some issues in the operational GFS that will keep me from raising precipitation chances for Monday.  The GFS seems to have too much Pacific moisture where its counterparts keep it dry.  It doesn't even have much support from the ensembles at this point.  The one agreement through all the models is the amount and depth of the cold air that arrives next week will be significant.  With the amount of cold air in place it would be hard to have any other precipitation types other than frozen.  This is a forecast we will continue to watch but early indications are that lows will reach atleast the 10's Sunday Night into the first part of next week.  Stay tuned on precipitation chances.

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist

Foothills Weather Network

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