Your Me, You, And Some Glue Creative Art Studio First Call Accumulation Forecast For Our First Winter Weather Event

Good Thursday Afternoon.  We are a little behind the others getting our accumulations out but we do not aim to be first to fly the flag, just the ones with the flag flying the highest at the end of the event.  That being said refer back to Scotty's weather briefing this morning for full details of this weather pattern. 

Models continue to align this afternoon with what will result from Friday and Friday Night's weather event.  This is not going to be a classic blockbuster storm for our area by far.  However, if seeing snow just in time for Christmas tickles your fancy then you are in luck. 

Here is out storm overview....

Storm Overview.png

Here is a look at the synoptic setup....

 If you like snow that doesn't cause many problems, this forecast is for you.  If you want to build a snowman head up to the mountains or The Great Lakes.

If you like snow that doesn't cause many problems, this forecast is for you.  If you want to build a snowman head up to the mountains or The Great Lakes.

Our confidence is increasing....

 Moderate confidence.  Now it isn't that the SW mountains are not going to get snow, we just don't believe it will be from this system.  The areas West of Cullowhee stand the best chance of snow Saturday Night into Sunday with a clipper type system that produces NW flow snow.

Moderate confidence.  Now it isn't that the SW mountains are not going to get snow, we just don't believe it will be from this system.  The areas West of Cullowhee stand the best chance of snow Saturday Night into Sunday with a clipper type system that produces NW flow snow.

This next graphic is one we have hesitated with raising but given that snow could fall well into the predawn areas Saturday Morning in parts of our area, mainly along and North of I-40, this could allow a little slush to build up on bridges and overpasses.  Temps never really make it below 33 or 34 degrees anywhere outside the mountain areas.  Ground temps are warm from recent warm weather so we do not expect many travel issues.  Since there is the chance of some brief slushy build up though here is our updated Winter Storm Index.

 Prep the roads

Prep the roads

Finally what everyone of you did was scroll straight to this map.  It is important to note here that travel on roadways should be fine across our forecast area.  If you like to see the snow fall but don't like it to cause problems, this is the storm for you.  I doubt there will be any school closings outside the mountains though.  In fact school systems really need to keep their snow days close to them this go around because the long range pattern is loaded.  Just because snow is falling from the sky doesn't mean that school has to be cancelled.  Roads will definately be wet through the day tomorrow but not icy unless you are in the mountains.

 This is a very elevation dependent snowfall.  The highest ridge tops in the South Mountains will see more accumulation than the valleys.  Any elevation over 3000ft will see higher accumulations than the valleys.  That's why we have limited accumulations over Asheville and the French Broad River Valley.  Even up high this is a wide margin for error.  Temps of one or two degrees difference can mean the difference between an inch and no accumulation. 

This is a very elevation dependent snowfall.  The highest ridge tops in the South Mountains will see more accumulation than the valleys.  Any elevation over 3000ft will see higher accumulations than the valleys.  That's why we have limited accumulations over Asheville and the French Broad River Valley.  Even up high this is a wide margin for error.  Temps of one or two degrees difference can mean the difference between an inch and no accumulation. 

So that is our first call as of Noontime Thursday December 7th, 2017.  Be sure to take the chance to support our education and emergency management non profit, Burke Weather, tonight at Zaxbys of Marion.  A portion of what they make tonight will be donated to Burke Weather.  A new update will be posted around 9:00pm tonight.

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist