Former Tropical Storm Harvey is officially re-born as of late this morning. The National Hurricane Central started up advisories again on now Tropical Depression Harvey as it is located in the Southern Gulf of Mexico.
At 11 am the location of Harvey is 21.5N 92.5W, or about 530 miles off the Texas Coastline. Maximum sustained winds 35 mph and the pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 in). Harvey is moving Northwest at 9 mph, strengthening is expected later today with Harvey regaining Tropical Storm status very soon.
The forecast for Harvey shows a slow intensification through the next 24 hours but decreasing shear along with very warm Gulf of Mexico waters is going to combine to allow Harvey to get significantly stronger on Thursday and Friday. Harvey will likely reach hurricane strength as it makes landfall this weekend.
Current Visible Satellite imagery shows and elongated storm as Harvey is currently attach to a surface trough in the Gulf. Some of that is also an effect of the light to moderate shear impacting the storm. We expect that the presentation of Harvey will improve starting tomorrow and it will allow the storm to intensify at a faster rate…
Hurricane model guidance at this point seems to have the track of Harvey laid down fairly well. It will move toward the Texas Coastline late Friday night and into early Saturday morning, as Harvey reaches the Texas Coastline it will begin to slow down as steering currents will collapse somewhat. With the slow movement of Harvey torrential rainfall of 10-20+ inches are possible across Southeast Texas. This has the potential to be a high impact flood event especially if it sets up across more populated locations such as the Houston Metro area…
Once we get past the weekend there is still a lot of uncertainty in the path of Harvey or its remnants. This looks to be hanging around the Western Gulf Coast Region for a while but as we get to early next week a mid-latitude trough may begin to influence the steering pattern a bit more and it could possibly allow moisture from Harvey to begin moving east and northeast through Dixie.
Anyone with interest from the Texas Gulf Coast over to Western Louisiana should monitor the latest on Harvey as it will produce dangerous weather along its path.