Forecast Discussion: Friday, August 25th

SHORT-TERM FORECAST: FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND

Friday will be very similar to Thursday in terms of weather, as conditions will remain mild and dry. A few additional clouds may be possible in the afternoon as a light northeast wind will provide a small amount of additional moisture. Both the cool breeze and the slight increase in moisture should keep temperatures in check during the afternoon, only allowing them to rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

A weak disturbance located off the South Carolina coast may provide just enough moisture along with upslope flow on Saturday morning to produce showers across the Foothills. This should not be a major rain event, and showers will likely be widely scattered, but the showers and additional clouds will help to keep temperatures down for the day on Saturday. On Sunday, the beginning of a reinforcing shot of cool and dry air will help to keep rain chances to our east, as skies will remain mostly clear, leading to a pleasant day.

LONG-RANGE FORECAST: NEXT WEEK

The beginning of this period looks fairly certain, as a cut-off low will swing down from central Canada, providing a reinforcing shot of cooler air for at least Monday and Tuesday. The main driver of the weather over this period will be determined by exactly how the cut-off low interacts with the remnants of Hurricane Harvey. If the cut-off low is able to drag some of the moisture northeastward, then our area could see enhanced rain chances throughout the middle of next week; if not, next week will remain fairly calm with a few extra clouds as Harvey passes to our west. Fortunately, no major heat outbreak is anticipated in any of the models at this time.

BRIEF UPDATE ON THE TROPICS: HURRICANE HARVEY

As of early Friday morning, the latest status of Hurricane Harvey is that he is a strong Category 2 storm, with winds up to 105 mph and a central minimum pressure of 967 millibars. Neither of these statistics, although impressive, is the truly worrying thing about Harvey. As Harvey interacts with a stationary front located just inland from the Gulf of Mexico, he will begin to stall, possibly moving back toward the coastline after drifting about for several days in Southeast Texas. This will allow Harvey to dump as much as 30 inches of rainfall over a broad area over the span of 3 or 4 days, which will certainly lead to catastrophic flooding. If current model trends are borne out, Harvey could have a similar wind impact to Katrina (2005), while having the flooding impact of a storm like Allison (2001) or Floyd (1999). This could potentially be a historic storm.

We'll keep you updated on your local weather as well as everything going on with Harvey

Thanks for reading

-Chase Graham