Sunday Afternoon Update; Harvey, Tropics, And Local Impacts

Good Sunday. I hope you are enjoying these cooler temps that have been around this weekend. A ton to get to this afternoon weather wise.

 

First, our thoughts and our prayers are with Texas as #Harvey continues to reek havoc there. Tons of lives threatened right now. Houston is under water and there are major rescue efforts ongoing there. The events down there are unprecedented and have literally never been experienced. Tornado warnings are also threatening Houston further hindering rescue efforts. Many National media outfits are now broadcasting from there. Check out those feeds. It is a huge natural disaster.

 

Locally though no flooding issues right now.  Earlier cloudy skies and overnight showers have given way to sunshine. Temps will top out today in the upper 70's to around 80°. There could be a couple of overnight showers tonight along the east slopes of the Blue Ridge again. .14 inches fell overnight at our office in McDowell County.

 

All of our eyes need to be on what is going on with the tropical disturbance in the Gulf of Mexico and that tropical disturbance. Currently this disorganized area of convection is over mainland Florida. By Monday Morning it will move off shore into the Atlantic and that’s when models begin to deepen this system. It has the chance to become a tropical or subtropical depression as it moves North to around Charleston by Monday Night. At the same time a cold front will be moving East across Tennessee. The track of this potential tropical system depends on how fast that cold front gets in here. Today’s model runs have Terence’s West with the tropical rains to about the I-77 corridor, before the front picks it up Monday Night and pushes it quickly off to the Northeast. A lot of very heavy rainfall is possible along and East if he low pressure’s track. The only impacts to our area right now would be limited to Alexander, Catawba, and Lincoln Counties, if any at all. Those impacts will be minimal we think. Rain showers could overspread those areas on Monday Night and briefly rain before everything is out by Tuesday Morning.  Rainfall totals would be light. A couple showers associated with the passing frontal system could move through western sections of Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, and Rutherford. Again, any rainfall totals would be light.  

By Tuesday Morning lies should be clearing and it will set for a beautiful day. Partly cloudy skies and highs around 80°. 

Graphics are posted below. Have a great Sunday. 

-Chris

 

 

Disorganized elongated trough of low pressure that may become a tropical disturbance. This image at Noontime Sunday 8/27/17  

Disorganized elongated trough of low pressure that may become a tropical disturbance. This image at Noontime Sunday 8/27/17

 

National Hurricane Center Sunday at Noon. 

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Tropical Low GFS Model Monday Morning 7am. 

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GFS Model projected rainfall by Tuesday Morning 7am. 

 

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GFS Model projected rainfall for Eastern NC through 7pm Tuesday. 

 

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NHC Update 2pm. 70% chance of a tropical system now. Tropical Storm Warnings may be required along the SE Coast.