Back To School Monday Forecast Discussion

Happy first day of school. Good morning I'm Chief Meteorologist Chris White. 

 

As stated Sunday afternoon there are a ton of weather issues to cover this morning. Potential Tropical Disturbance (PTC) 10, an upper level low to our NW, a surface high pressure, and even an indirect effect from Tropical Storm Harvey.

 

First PTC 10: Here is the 5am Advisory....

...DISTURBANCE REMAINING STATIONARY OFF THE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
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LOCATION...30.3N 81.0W
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM SSW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 330 MI...525 KM SW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES
 

PTC 10 should have minimum impacts on our weather locally as its track keeps it along the Coast. It appears that surface ridge will move down over the mountains while Irma begins to deepen just off the coast. The upper level low that is to our NW will start to move into our area later today. Between this upper low and PTC 10 the surface ridge of high pressure will likely fall apart. More clouds than sunshine this afternoon. Then this morning's models do indicate some vortices being wrapped around the edge up this upper level low, those coming from the outskirts of Tropical Storm Harvey. As PTC 10 strengthens and some of those upper level vorticies wrap into the area Easterly flow will likely enhance. You know what that means. Moisture could get banked up against the Eastern slope of the Blue Ridge this afternoon through tonight. That is why in our 7 day forecast we chose to increase the chance of rain today and Tuesday. Rain shouldn't be heavy enough to cause any flooding issues as we have had some time to dry out and amounts look light. 

Harvey continues to move SE and should emerge back over the Gulf of Mexico today. Harvey is being forced back South by the upper level low that is digging southeast. As that upper low moves East it will allow Harvey to move North and East. We will watch Harvey to see if his remnants have any effect on our weather late week. There is still a ton of information to work out with that system yet. We should have a better idea on it late tonight or Tuesday. It certainly has been a thorn in the forecasting side the last week. Texas has several more days of heavy rain ahead of them. 

Late this week into the weekend looks unsettled as we should get back into a pattern with afternoon showers and storms. There are some indications that we may get wedged in on Saturday through Sunday as high pressure could build South from the Great Lakes Region. Harvey's remnants could still affect the area as well. Long story short we are now expecting unsettled weather starting Thursday and that could last into the weekend, keeping temperatures below normal. 

 

Have a wonderful day!