Tropical weather has been a big topic in recent news with all the damage along the Texas and Louisiana Gulf Coasts done by former Hurricane Harvey. We are entering the peak of the Atlantic Hurricane Season and we have additional features out there other than Harvey.
The National Hurricane Center has highlighted a couple areas of interest in the Atlantic basin with their latest five-day outlook.
First off, Tropical Storm Irma was named this morning as the wave in the open Atlantic has quickly developed into a tropical cyclone. Irma has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is moving west at 13 mph. With conditions somewhat favorable Irma will gradually develop over the next few days as it continues to move west in the general direction of the Lesser Antilles.
Those with interests in the Islands will need to monitor Irma as it could impact that part of the world by early next week. Irma will move on the southern extent of a strong Atlantic ridge and that poses a threat down the road to not only the Lesser Antilles but eventually Puerto Rico, Dominican Republic and the Bahamas.
Model ensemble guidance in the long range does show that Irma could pose a threat to the United States but the details are way too early to iron out. If there were to be a threat from Irma it would occur around the 10th of September. We’ll keep an eye on it and update the situation with Irma later this week.
The other area of interest is unfortunately in the Western Gulf of Mexico, a part of the Atlantic basin that needs a break. As of right now there is great uncertainty with if or what may develop off the coast of Mexico…but most global model guidance does show a weak feature meandering around the Gulf. probabilities are not high for anything major but we could get something designated in that region the early to middle part of next week…