Forecast Discussion: Friday, September 1st, 2017

SHORT-TERM FORECAST: FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND

The first half of the Labor Day weekend will be dominated by the remnants of Hurricane Harvey, as what's left of the storm is quickly pulled into the synoptic scale trough, exiting through the Ohio Valley and into the Northeastern United States. As it moves to our west and ultimately our north, precipitation chances will be greatly enhanced, with showers and thunderstorms likely on Friday, continuing into Saturday morning. Depending on how quickly the system moves out, Saturday may or may not be a clear day. At present, it looks like enough moisture will hang around into the day on Saturday for at least a small chance of showers through most of the day. As conditions finally clear out on Sunday, temperatures will shoot back up to more seasonable levels, with most areas seeing low-to-mid 80s by Sunday.

European Model (ECMWF) 500-mb height map. The "X" marks the center of the remnants of Harvey. Source: Accuweather Professional.

European Model (ECMWF) 500-mb height map. The "X" marks the center of the remnants of Harvey. Source: Accuweather Professional.

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model precipitation estimates through Saturday night. Source: tropicaltidbits.com

North American Mesoscale (NAM) Model precipitation estimates through Saturday night. Source: tropicaltidbits.com

MID-TO-LONG RANGE FORECAST: LABOR DAY AND NEXT WEEK

The pleasant weather that will move into the area on Sunday will remain in the area on Monday, leading to what should be a beautiful Labor Day Monday. Because of limited cloud cover, temperatures should make their way into at least the low 80s across the area, with a few spots potentially reaching the middle and upper 80s. Unfortunately, this warm and dry pattern will not last long, as both the American and European models agree that a significant early season cold front may try to swing down through the Eastern United States during the middle of next week. This front may bring a chance for precipitation as early as late next Tuesday, with Wednesday and Thursday being the most likely days for precipitation. Depending on how strong the cold front is and if it makes it completely through our area, we may have our first big taste of fall at the end of next week, although there is still a lot of uncertainty. 

ECMWF 500-mb heights for Tuesday, September 5th at 1200 UTC. The red line represents the approximate location of the trough that will try to provide cooler air for our area. Source: Accuweather Professional.

ECMWF 500-mb heights for Tuesday, September 5th at 1200 UTC. The red line represents the approximate location of the trough that will try to provide cooler air for our area. Source: Accuweather Professional.

Make sure to also stay tuned for the latest on Hurricane Irma, which will be discussed in greater detail as it moves closer to the United States.

Otherwise, have a great Friday!

Chase Scott Graham