Forecast Discussion: Friday, September 15th, 2017

A Look into the Tropics

There is not much cause for concern over Tropical Storm Jose at this time, although there is an outside chance that Jose may make a run very near the Outer Banks and the Northeastern United States. Still, the chance of Jose hitting the East Coast of the United States is less than 20% at this time. Additionally, Tropical Depression 14 has formed off the coast of Africa, but it is WAY too far away from us to have any concern about it at this time.

 

11 p.m. 09/14/2017 Advisory and Official Track on Tropical Storm Jose from the National Hurricane Center.

11 p.m. 09/14/2017 Advisory and Official Track on Tropical Storm Jose from the National Hurricane Center.

1800 UTC 09/14/2017 GFS Ensemble members for the track of T.S. Jose. Blue colors represent lower probability, while orange and red colors represent higher probability.

1800 UTC 09/14/2017 GFS Ensemble members for the track of T.S. Jose. Blue colors represent lower probability, while orange and red colors represent higher probability.

European (ECMWF) Ensemble members for the track of T.S. Jose. Blue colors represent lower probability, while orange and red colors represent higher probability.

European (ECMWF) Ensemble members for the track of T.S. Jose. Blue colors represent lower probability, while orange and red colors represent higher probability.

The Outlook Closer to Home

A major pattern shift is in store for our area over the next week, and it will likely bring increased temperatures and pleasant conditions for next week. As a result of an upper-level ridge setting up over the Great Lakes and Southeastern Canada, we should return to a more summer-like pattern, with temperatures returning to the low-to-mid 80s for the weekend. Temperatures should continue to slowly rise throughout the beginning of next week, with some areas reaching the middle and upper 80s by the middle of next week. Mostly sunny skies should dominate the forecast at least through the middle of next week, barring any radical movement from Jose. Long-range forecast models suggest that this pattern shift should stick with us for at least the next 7-10 days, so expect a prolonged period of near-or-above average temperatures and mostly clear conditions.

GFS Ensemble 500 mb geopotential height and geopotential height anomaly plots for the middle of next week. Notice the ridge (high pressure) setting up over the Eastern United States.

GFS Ensemble 500 mb geopotential height and geopotential height anomaly plots for the middle of next week. Notice the ridge (high pressure) setting up over the Eastern United States.

European Ensemble 500 mb geopotential height and geopotential height anomaly plots for the middle of next week. The ridge over the Eastern United States also appears in this model interpretation.

European Ensemble 500 mb geopotential height and geopotential height anomaly plots for the middle of next week. The ridge over the Eastern United States also appears in this model interpretation.

Have a great Friday!

Chase Scott Graham