Happy Thursday everyone!
Even though the calendar says it's fall, our weather has felt more like mid summer. We have been stuck under a pretty strong ridge that has kept the temperatures pretty warm and the rain to a minimum. It has now been 15 days since we have seen measurable rainfall in the area and it looks like the next 7-10 days will be fairly dry as well.
The GFS model is show fairly dry conditions for the next 10 days. The chart above shows us each ensemble. Most of the ensembles remain dry through October 13th, a few are showing some rainfall amounts over an inch, but those are only a few, so we call them outliers.
The European model which has 52 different ensembles shows a more bleak look for rainfall. Several show no rain at all, while the majority shows 1/10th -2/10th of an inch of rain. So it looks like the dry period will continue.
So we see the rainfall is going to remain fairly bleak.. How do the temperatures look for the next few weeks? Well the answer to that may not be liked by those who are wanting cooler weather. After a dry cold front moves through today and another shot of cooler air Friday nights we will see cool temps this weekend. Highs will be in the low to mid 70's with lows in the upper 40's to low 50's.
Next week those temperatures start to rise. I don't think that we will see the 90's come back, but the Climate Prediction Center has highlighted 50%-70% above normal temperatures for the area over the next two weeks (Ending October 11th.)
The only way I think we break this warm and dry period is for something to develop in the Tropics and move into our area. Right now their isn't much going on in the tropics. Tropical Storm Maria continues to move out to see. Hurricane Lee remains out to sea and will not threaten land.
Their is one disturbance near Cuba that wants to try and develop into something Tropical as it treks north towards Florida. Right now it looks to remain very weak, and really shouldn't have much of an impact on our weather locally.
Have a great day!