Good Sunday Morning. I hope your Labor Day Weekend is going well. It is going to be a beautiful Sunday so get out there and enjoy it! Temps today will climb mid and maybe a few upper 80's. You will notice though the drier air in place, especially if water activities are in store today. With the lower humidity values today, evaporational cooling will allow for a slight chill once you get out of the water. It should be great! I wish I was off work today. LOL.
Anyhow, Monday and Tuesday don't look too bad. A few more clouds will be in the area by Tuesday Evening though. Those will arrive out ahead of a approaching vigorous cold front that is set to arrive into the forecast area by Wednesday. Widespread showers and thunderstorms are likely by midday Wednesday. A couple of the storms could be strong. We will monitor that. This front will usher in cooler and drier conditions by Thursday. Temps likely will only top out around 80 degrees in most areas.
By Friday Irma should be getting close, if not already, battering the Bahamas. Irma is now a Category 3 Hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Scale. The official forecast from The National Hurricane Center keeps Irma a Cat 3 today and most of tomorrow. Here is her current update as of 5:00am....
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...18.0N 47.5W ABOUT 945 MI...1520 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...WSW OR 255 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...969 MB...28.62 INCHES
So the million dollar question is what eventual track does Irma take once she passes by the Bahamas. The honest truth is that we just don't know. Let me show and tell you why.
1) The exact strength of the Bermuda High is not known yet
2) A trough diving south late next weekend could slow or speed up depending on steering currents.
3) The model spread is huge outside of 5 days.
4) If Irma affects the coast the most likely timeframe would be between Sunday Night and Tuesday.
Aircraft recon flights will initiate today sampling the atmosphere out ahead of Irma and one flight into Irma. This data will inject into the model runs we get tonight around midnight. It is then that we can start trying to piece together a forecast but it will likely be mid week before we have good confident track with Irma. Lastly, there are satire sites spreading false information around about Irma. Those are being posted by hoax agencies and should not be taken to heart. There is no category 6 in the Saffir Simpson Scale. That is the first sign that that story is bogus. There is no plan or need to extend the current scale either. That site is causing a lot of people a ton of anxiety and worry when there is no truth to it whatsoever. Stay tuned to trusted media outlets that you trust and The National Hurricane Center for updates on Irma. We will update later today. Again, this storm is still 7-8 days out from any threat to the US Mainland, if it threatens it at all.
Chief Meteorologist/Foothills Weather Network