Forecast Discussion: Saturday, September 30th, 2017

SECTION 1: A QUICK LOOK AT THE TROPICS

Tropical Storm Maria and Tropical Storm Lee are accelerating through the Northern Atlantic Ocean away from North America and will either dissipate or become extratropical by tomorrow evening. There are also a couple of minor disturbances forming in the Gulf Of Mexico and the Caribbean; however, none of these are expected to develop quickly, if at all.

SECTION 2: A TASTE OF FALL THIS WEEKEND

A reinforcing shot of cold air will move into the Carolinas on Saturday, but the full effects of this secondary cold front will not be felt in our area until Sunday. Regardless, northerly and northeasterly flow will allow for mild and dry conditions this weekend, allowing us to feel our first true taste of fall. Low temperatures Sunday morning will be the most noticeable change this weekend, as many areas will see temperatures in the mid-to-upper 40s at daybreak. High temperatures on Saturday will be in the mid-70s across the area, while high temperatures on Sunday will be in the upper 60s (higher elevations) and lower 70s (lower elevations). In total, it should be a great weekend weather-wise.

NAM-3km temperatures at 7 a.m. Sunday Morning. Courtesy: tropicaltidbits.com

NAM-3km temperatures at 7 a.m. Sunday Morning. Courtesy: tropicaltidbits.com

 

SECTION 3: NEXT WEEK'S OUTLOOK

Unfortunately, despite a reasonably wet summer, drought conditions are beginning to return across Western North Carolina. Additionally, it looks like drought conditions will persist and intensify as low humidity and rain chances are in the forecast for the foreseeable future. This will be due to a fairly constant upper level pattern which will send storms northeast through the central United States and the upper Midwest instead of allowing them to come into the Southeastern United States. There is a possibility that the dominant pattern may change late next week; however, a lot will change between now and then.

500-mb Heights and Winds. This illustrates the reasoning for clear conditions next week. Source: pivotalweather.com

500-mb Heights and Winds. This illustrates the reasoning for clear conditions next week. Source: pivotalweather.com

 Temperatures next week should slowly increase as we approach the end of the week, with surface winds shifting from a cool northeasterly to a warm southwesterly flow. Highs will be in the low 70s at the beginning of the week, warming into the upper 70s and lower 80s by the end of the week. Lows will be in the 50s.

Have a great Saturday!

Chase Scott Graham