The Chances Of An Impact From Hurricane Irma Increasing

BROUGHT TO YOU BY ALLSTATE MORGAN AGENCY

Good Wednesday Morning. This weather briefing will focus strictly on Hurricane Irma and her potential impacts to our forecast area.  Please see Daniels Discussion for details on the near term. I caution you that there are still a lot of details to work out with this storm. Chances of an impact from Hurricane Irma are about 60% now.  

Irma's official track has shifted East overnight. That falls in line with all the model guidance. While this is great for the Florida Keys and Miami, it is bad news further up the coast. There are a couple questions I still have with this track indication though. One being that this storm is very powerful. It's a strong and well organized category 5 hurricane. It will take a lot to make her turn. If this is going to occur I would expect to see a brief stall out of Irma. For that reason I think overnight runs are too fast, bringing her in now on Monday instead of Tuesday. I still caution anyone who has put out any kind of track more than 5 days out. There is still great uncertainty as to what happens to her after day 5 but that will start to clear up through the day today. 

Tropical Storm José will not have a direct effect on our weather but it could help influence the eventual track of Irma. Josè looks like it help weaken the Bermuda Ridge and that is why we are seeing a trend back to the east. 

So what does this mean for our area? Locally it is becoming apparent that we will be impacted by Irma to some extent with wind and rain. To what degree is still to be seen and depends on the eventual track of Irma. Right now models indicate a SC landfall and a trough over Alabama allows the storm to work west. High pressure to the North should also hinder the storm from running too far North Monday and Tuesday. We will see if that happens. On our major operational models indicate Irma moving NW from the coastline up I-26. 

Given the model agreement we are suggesting that people start to prepare for possible power outages due to high winds and heavy rain. While there are still uncertainties about the extent of the rainfall and the impact from the winds, it is important to really start taking Irma's threat seriously.  

What do we as Meteorologists need to do today: 

     1) Evaluate new model data

     2) Monitor data from Hurricane Hunters

     3) Narrow down timing and impacts

     4) Update Emergency Management and Public of any changes

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What do you need to do today:

     1) Formulate a plan of action with your family.

     2) Gather needed materials for your emergency preparedness kit

     3) Purchase drinking water and water to cook with. 

     4) Get medications refilled

     5) Get non perishable canned foods, 3 days worth per person. 

     6) Don't panic. Just prepare. 

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Summarizing: 

Chance of Irma impacting our area to some extent: 60%  

Chance of our area seeing no impacts: 40% 

Forecast Confidence: 60% 

 

Chris White

Chief Meteorologist  

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5:00am Key points

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Active Tropical Atlantic

Confidence growing of seeing at least a medium impact from Irma across our viewing area.

Confidence growing of seeing at least a medium impact from Irma across our viewing area.

Severe Weather Outlook this morning highlightning Monday and Tuesday for Irma's arrival

Severe Weather Outlook this morning highlightning Monday and Tuesday for Irma's arrival

Official National Hurricane Center Track for Hurricane Irma

Official National Hurricane Center Track for Hurricane Irma