Dynamic storm system could bring a round of thunderstorms to the area on Friday...

Remember this time last week when the region was under siege from an arctic invasion? Well, one week later and we’re talking about the potential for some thunderstorms…

 

 

A strong surface and upper low will combine forces to bring substantial rainfall to the area but another thing that will be closely monitored will be the potential for thunderstorms, with a few of them on the strong side.

 

 

As of this time the Storm Prediction Center does not have any part of the Western Carolina highlighted for severe weather but it does have a broad area under a general thunderstorm risk…this does include the Foothills and Western Piedmont.


 Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook

Storm Prediction Center Day 3 Outlook

 

Friday’s setup is what we note as a high shear/low instability kind of setup. Low pressure will be developing across the Mid South on Friday and then begin to intensify by Friday afternoon as it will lift west of the Appalachians by Friday night…


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The shear parameter looks to occur from roughly late afternoon (4 pm) until around midnight on Friday night. Model data future radar lines up well with that same time frame...so with convection moving in a shear environment and some CAPE available, the chance is there for a the line of showers and storm to produce some gusty winds.


 Model projected wind direction (Fri 4 pm) SFC winds Southeast, 850 mb winds South-Southwest

Model projected wind direction (Fri 4 pm) SFC winds Southeast, 850 mb winds South-Southwest

 NAM Future Radar (Friday 4 pm)

NAM Future Radar (Friday 4 pm)

 NAM Future Radar (Friday 9 pm)

NAM Future Radar (Friday 9 pm)

 NAM Future Radar (Saturday 1 am)

NAM Future Radar (Saturday 1 am)

Right now we do not see a substantial risk for severe storms on Friday mainly because of rain-cooled air that will be out ahead of the dynamic storm system but with shear noted and the slightest bit of CAPE on the models, it is something that will be monitored in case the parameters were to increase in future model runs...remain weather aware and we'll have the latest in future updates...