A very cold weekend is expected across the region as another massive arctic high will settle in. By the time we get to Monday the next storm system in a fast flow will approach and impact the Southeast US With cold arctic air at the surface and moisture coming in, could we have a bout of wintry weather on Monday?
That’s the big question at this point that we’ll try to answer. First, lets look at the players on the table…
The upper level energy of interest is currently out in the Pacific Ocean south of Alaska and dropping southeast toward the West Coast. Computer model data has been inconsistent in the strength of this energy as it comes ashore on Saturday, that is due to a void in data points off shore.
The one thing models seems be confident in will be the track of upper energy from ashore the Pacific Northwest Saturday morning to a position in the Southern Plains on Sunday and digging. It digs south thanks in part to the retreating trough in the Eastern US, its helping to keep the storm on a southern track however unlike recent weather event, it won’t totally squash the energy.
Meanwhile here at the surface high pressure will be overhead Sunday morning and moving off-shore. Even without a high in classic damming position, there is so much dry and cold air established that it will be in place, initially for moisture to overrun it.
Right now we believe that moisture will develop across the Mid South on Sunday and move eastward through the Southeast by Monday. This could all set the stage for some wintry precipitation to begin the new week. Multiple precip types are possible as moisture passes through especially in the morning hours as temperatures will likely be below freezing.
Its way too early for any guesses on precip type or amounts, the key to this message is to raise awareness of the potential for something to happen. Given how cold the ground is and will be in this timeframe, even small amounts of frozen precip in the morning hours of Monday could be of impact.
With this potential being out there we feel its strong enough to bring out the Winter Weather Index and place it at Level 1 (Social Media Talk) at this time…
Our weather team will keep an eye this potential episode and will have updates through the upcoming weekend.