Weather Briefing: Friday, February 2nd, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: Wintry Weather, then Warmer. Much-needed Precipitation on the way!

 European Model Forecasted Precipitation for Sunday Morning at 7 a.m. Also depicted are high and low pressure centers, wind patterns, and warm and cold flow patterns.

European Model Forecasted Precipitation for Sunday Morning at 7 a.m. Also depicted are high and low pressure centers, wind patterns, and warm and cold flow patterns.

We certainly have an interesting weekend shaping up for us here in Western North Carolina. Conditions will remain calm for the day on Saturday as an area of high pressure moves over the area for the first part of the day. Clouds will likely increase beginning in the early-to-mid afternoon, but we should remain dry through the entirety of the day on Saturday. As we head into Saturday night and Sunday morning, two disturbances, one from the Gulf of Mexico and one coming from the Upper Mississippi Valley will combine over the Eastern United States, providing plenty of moisture for us throughout Super Bowl Sunday. You may be wondering why we'll see this mixed bag of precipitation on Sunday instead of all snow or all rain. One of the main reasons is that the area of high pressure that swings through the Carolinas on Saturday will be moving very quickly, and will be heading well off into the Canadian Maritimes by Sunday. For snow or wintry precipitation to occur in our area, we would need the high pressure system to be much stronger and located over the New York or Southern Ontario so we could get a strong flow of polar air into our area. Instead, it looks like the cold air will easily be eroded by the incoming low pressure system, changing any wintry precipitation over to rain by midday Sunday.

 European Model 500-millibar height and anomaly for Tuesday, February 6th at 7:00 a.m. This figure depicts how the flow will be "zonal" (mainly west-to-east instead of north-to-south). 

European Model 500-millibar height and anomaly for Tuesday, February 6th at 7:00 a.m. This figure depicts how the flow will be "zonal" (mainly west-to-east instead of north-to-south). 

 European Model forecasted Precipitation Type for Tuesday night at 7:00 p.m. Also depicted are surface fronts and predicted track of the area of low pressure. Note that only rain is expected for this event.

European Model forecasted Precipitation Type for Tuesday night at 7:00 p.m. Also depicted are surface fronts and predicted track of the area of low pressure. Note that only rain is expected for this event.

Once we get through Sunday, we will have a few days of calmer weather for the beginning of next week. Conditions will remain cool on Monday as the upper-level trough swings through the Eastern United States. However, when we get into our day on Tuesday, zonal west-southwesterly flow will move into our area, allowing us to have a warmer temperatures for Tuesday and Wednesday. Meanwhile, a disturbance will develop over the over the Southern Plains and move over our area on Wednesday. Temperatures will be well above freezing for the entirety of this event, so all rain is expected. Between Sunday's precipitation and Wednesday's, we could easily see 1-2" of precipitation over the next week, which will certainly be well-received. As for the rest of the week, no significant disturbances appear to be on the horizon, and temperatures look to remain relatively close to normal (once we get past this weekend).

 European Model forecasted precipitation for the next 7 days.

European Model forecasted precipitation for the next 7 days.

 American (GFS) Model forecasted precipitation amounts for the next 7 days.

American (GFS) Model forecasted precipitation amounts for the next 7 days.

Thanks for reading and have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham