Weather Briefing: Friday, February 23rd, 2018

HEADLINES: RAIN AND WARMTH; NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE STATUS QUO IN THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE

 GFS (American) Model Precipitation Type and Mean Surface Level Pressure for 7:00 a.m. Sunday, February 25th. Surface features have been hand-analyzed.

GFS (American) Model Precipitation Type and Mean Surface Level Pressure for 7:00 a.m. Sunday, February 25th. Surface features have been hand-analyzed.

The past few days have been exceptionally warm and relatively dry across the area, and while the warmer than average temperatures look likely to continue for at least the next week or so, we will reintroduce a chance of precipitation for the weekend and several times through the week next week. Friday will be an interesting day by itself, as a mesoscale frontal boundary will come very close to our area, possibly keeping temperatures cooler if it passes to our south. Right now, it appears that temperatures should be fairly similar to the past few days, with highs topping out in the low 70s. As we head into our Saturday, clouds will be on the increase, although there is still a chance that we could see peeks of sun during the day. While there is a chance of showers for Saturday as a cold front approaches from the west, the front should be far enough away to keep rain chances low. However, as we move into Sunday, the cold front will finally begin to push through the area. As the front moves through, we will see showers during the day on Sunday. Precipitation totals will be fairly moderate, with most areas likely seeing between 1/4" and 3/4" of rain.

 European (ECMWF) Model Estimated Precipitation for the Next Seven Days

European (ECMWF) Model Estimated Precipitation for the Next Seven Days

 GFS (American) Model Estimated Precipitation for the Next Seven Days

GFS (American) Model Estimated Precipitation for the Next Seven Days

As we move into next week, we have a challenging forecast setup for next Monday. There is disagreement currently in the main computer models as to whether or not we will see additional precipitation on Monday. The American (GFS) Model suggests that the cold front will push well through our area, leaving us with fair conditions. On the other hand, the European (ECMWF) Model suggests that an area of low pressure will develop on the tail end of the stalled-out frontal boundary and will move up through the Southeastern United States for the day on Monday. Both models suggest some cooling of temperatures in the wake of the cold front, although it now looks unlikely for temperatures to fall below average after the cold front passes. Regardless, it looks like Tuesday will be very pleasant, with high pressure briefly controlling the weather over the Carolinas. The pleasant weather will be short-lived, as another series of disturbances look likely to bring rain into our area for the middle to latter parts of next week. In terms of temperature, after several consecutive days of modest cooling, temperatures are favored to rise back to their well-above average levels for the middle to end of next week. Nevertheless, no return to the bitterly cold temperatures of January looks likely in the next 5-8 days, as the synoptic-scale pattern (below) continues to suggest at or above normal temperatures for the foreseeable future.

 European (ECMWF) Model Forecasted 500 mb Heights [lines] and Height Anomaly [shading] for Wednesday, February 28th, at 1:00 p.m.

European (ECMWF) Model Forecasted 500 mb Heights [lines] and Height Anomaly [shading] for Wednesday, February 28th, at 1:00 p.m.

Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham