50/50 Weather Weekend: Rain chances increase as ridge begins to erode

Good Saturday morning to everyone…we hope that your week has been great. The weekend is here and we are looking at a 50/50 weekend in terms of the weather.

 

This morning we remain in a very warm pattern for the last days of February. Temperatures are mild in the 50’s with variable cloudiness based on location. The morning clouds should begin to dissipate by late morning and we’ll be off and running toward another unseasonably warm day. High pressure aloft is located across Florida and has given the region a very warm and humid flow all week long.


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For this afternoon expect partly cloudy skies and warm temperatures in the mid 70’s with a southwest breeze picking up.

 

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The dominant ridge over the Southeast will finally begin to loosen its grip starting tonight and it will ultimately lead to a wet second half of the weekend. Clouds will start to increase tonight as a frontal boundary will finally slide eastward toward the Southern Appalachian Region, the result will be another mild night with upper 50’s and low 60’s by daybreak Sunday.

 

By Sunday morning southerly flow will begin to yield some light amounts of moisture along the Blue Ridge, most likely in the form of drizzle and mist. Then by midday more widespread rain moves in with the approach of the surface boundary. This will all result in lower high's for Sunday (60's to near 70) most likely reached around mid day.


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Once the rainfall begins in the afternoon it will be slow to move, if anything the rain shield will begin to transition from a SW-NE orientation to more of a West-East look thanks to upper ridging that will persist. This keeps North Carolina is a favorable position for showers and heavier rainfall through Sunday night before getting another kick to the east on Monday.

 

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At this time, rainfall amounts look fairly modest  with ½ inch likely and a few spots of over ¾ of an inch through Monday evening.

 

 Weather Prediction Center Rainfall Forecast through Monday 7 pm

Weather Prediction Center Rainfall Forecast through Monday 7 pm

Have a great day!

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network