Weather Briefing: Friday, February 9th, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: Rain, Rain, and More Rain; Warm Weather Next Week

 General Weather Setup for this weekend.

General Weather Setup for this weekend.

Today, we are heading into what appears to be a prolonged stretch of unseasonably wet and warm weather. The rain will come first, as a frontal boundary will move from the upper Great Plains toward the Eastern United States as we head into the beginning of the weekend. As it approaches the Appalachian Mountains, the front will basically stall, remaining nearly stationary from the middle of Saturday through Sunday. Since we will be out ahead of the frontal boundary, we will see a moist, southwesterly flow settle in place for the majority of the weekend. This moist flow will allow for intermittent showers on Saturday, and steadier rains for Saturday night into Sunday as the front moves close enough for the main area of precipitation to reach our area. It appears that the determining factor in how much rain we see is how close that frontal boundary makes it to our area before stalling out. If the front stalls out farther to the northwest, we may miss out on some of the heaviest precipitation. However, if the front stalls out nearly on top of us, we may see some very impressive rain totals. Currently, the two main computer models show us getting at least 1 inch of precipitation this weekend, with the American Model (GFS) showing our area receiving between 1-2" and the European Model showing our area receiving between 2-3". Regardless of specific rainfall amounts, it will be essential to wear the rain gear if you're heading outside this weekend, especially for the day on Sunday. 

 American (GFS) Model estimated precipitation through Monday, 12 February 2018.

American (GFS) Model estimated precipitation through Monday, 12 February 2018.

 European (ECMWF) Model estimated precipitation through Monday, 12 February 2018.

European (ECMWF) Model estimated precipitation through Monday, 12 February 2018.

Looking ahead to next week, the stationary front will eventually begin to dissipate; however, the remnants of the front will keep things unstable for most of next week. As a result, there is at least a small chance of precipitation nearly every day next week. The main story for next week will be the unseasonable warmth. A ridge will be building across the Central and Eastern United States, reaching its maximum intensity on Wednesday and Thursday. The ridge will allow southerly flow to continue to bring in warm air, and as a result, we could see temperatures that are 10-20 degrees above average for the middle to end of next week.

 European Model Forecasted 500 hPa Geopotential Height and Anomaly for 0000 UTC, Wednesday, 14 February 2018.

European Model Forecasted 500 hPa Geopotential Height and Anomaly for 0000 UTC, Wednesday, 14 February 2018.

Thank you for reading! Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham