Weather Briefing: Friday, March 16th, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: Mild and Wet this Weekend, Winter Returns (again!) Next Week

After a week in which we have seen snow and seventy degrees in Western North Carolina, I wish I could tell you that we would see a more stable weather pattern over the next few days. Unfortunately, it looks like the weather rollercoaster will continue for at least the next 7-10 days in our area. A relatively weak disturbance will move through the area on Saturday, bringing a chance for showers and a few thunderstorms. Overall, rainfall amounts will be light (generally less than 1/10"), although heavier amounts of precipitation could be possible in thunderstorms. Sunday should be mostly sunny, as we will be in between the disturbance that moves through the area on Saturday and another disturbance which will move through the area Monday night into Tuesday. Temperatures over the weekend will be seasonably mild, with highs both days in the low-to-mid 60s and lows in the low-to-mid 40s.

 European Model Forecasted 1000-500 mb Thickness for 2 p.m. Saturday, March 17th. Thickness is a way to measure the temperature of the atmosphere, with deeper red colors representing generally warmer temperatures, and deeper blue colors representing generally cooler temperatures.

European Model Forecasted 1000-500 mb Thickness for 2 p.m. Saturday, March 17th. Thickness is a way to measure the temperature of the atmosphere, with deeper red colors representing generally warmer temperatures, and deeper blue colors representing generally cooler temperatures.

 European Model Forecasted 1000-500 mb Thickness maps for 8 a.m., Thursday, March 22nd.

European Model Forecasted 1000-500 mb Thickness maps for 8 a.m., Thursday, March 22nd.

 American Model Forecast for Tuesday, March 20th. This image depicts the general setup.

American Model Forecast for Tuesday, March 20th. This image depicts the general setup.

As we head into next week, a disturbance will swing through the middle of the United States Sunday evening into Monday, eventually entering the Eastern third of the U.S. Monday afternoon. This area of low pressure will move almost directly over the area for the day on Tuesday, bringing moderate amounts of rain for the early part of the week. At this time, it looks like most areas will see between one-quarter and three-quarters of an inch during the first half of the week. After the low pressure system moves out of the area and up the East Coast, a hefty amount of cold air will be pulled down from Canada for the second half of next week. Current model projections suggest that at least three days will be well below normal temperature-wise late next week, with the non-zero possibility for one last shot of wintry weather if we see wrap-around moisture associated with the system moving through the Eastern U.S. next week. We'll have to see more model runs come in, but there is a slight chance for wintry precipitation next Wednesday or Thursday, especially in the mountains.

 European Model Forecasted 7-Day Rainfall from March 16th through March 23rd, 2018.

European Model Forecasted 7-Day Rainfall from March 16th through March 23rd, 2018.

Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham