Good afternoon, but more importantly Happy Easter! We promise there won't be any April Fool's pranks in this discussion. :)
This weather discussion will have two parts: a quick synopsis of the week ahead and a small snapshot of what the models predict for the month of April with temperatures and precipitation. Let's hop to it!
Brief Brief on the Week Ahead
A high pressure that has graced us with a beautiful Easter morning will be on it's way out as a stationary front moves in, bringing along some cloud coverage and low (20%) precipitation probability for Monday. Expect highs in the 70's, lows in the 50's until Tuesday night where a cold front will progress through the area. Precipitation is expected with this event with chances of rain are 30% for Tuesday evening and 60% for Wednesday day. We will feel the thermal effects of the cold front starting Wednesday with a high in the mid 60's, but it will be felt more once the clouds and humidity clear out overnight dropping temperatures to the mid 30's. Thursday will be bright and sunny with a high in the mid to upper 50's as dry air fills in behind the aforementioned cold front. Friday will start off in the low 40's, but will warm up into the low 60's before the day is done with more sunshine before the new impending frontal passage for the weekend. A well developed spring fashioned shortwave trough will smash over the Appalachians starting as early as Friday night on through Saturday, having Saturday conditions of precipitation and temperatures remind us of the cold front from earlier in the week. 60% chance of rain for Saturday and a diurnal high in the upper 50's.
April showers? What else will April bring?
Yesterday we made a post on our social media sharing two graphics about the 6-10 day outlook and the 8-14 day outlook. To avoid the run around, here they are again:
Everyone loves color gradients, but what does this show? The numbers do not correlate to temperatures, but rather a likelihood of being above or below the climatological temperature normal. In both of these graphics we can see clearly that our wonderful state is within the 60% range of being below normal in temperatures starting from the end of this new week onto the end of next following that (into mid April). So, still, what does this mean? We can infer from the dashed black contours that the temperature norm for this time frame is in the 60's but we can expect daily highs dropping below that, meaning diurnal lows can potentially flirt with the freezing line. For the second half of April North Carolina is in a "EC" range which is to say there is an equal chance of above and below average temperatures.
How about those showers? Here are precipitation maps with the similar setup to the temperature maps above.
So along with our cooler temperature theme we have a wetter than normal precipitation theme for April as well with a smidge more emphasis on the 6-10 day range than the 8-14 day range. the dashed black contours here express about .5-.4 inches are the climatological norm, and the green color gradient expresses we are 50-60% likely to go over that value. The last two weeks of April drop off another gradient to 30-40% chance of above average precipitation totals.
So April showers? Indeed, but with our cooler temperatures mixed in we might not see as many May flowers as we'd like.
Thanks for reading!