Weather Briefing: Friday, April 13th, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: A WARM WRAP-UP TO THE WEEK, A STORMY SUNDAY, AND A (Very!) BRIEF COOL DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK

If you've been outside at all the past few days, you know that we've been blessed with beautiful spring-like conditions. Over the next few days, no significant changes are expected in temperatures, so the balmy weather looks likely to continue, at least through Saturday. The first two-thirds of the weekend (if you consider Friday to be part of the weekend) look to be good weather days. Today, we'll see mostly sunny skies with high temperatures reaching the upper 70s thanks to a combination of plenty of sunshine and a warm wind out of the south and southwest. Some areas near the NC/SC border may even reach the low 80s. More clouds will move into the are for the day on Saturday as the storm system which will cause all the mess on Sunday will begin to approach the area. Saturday still looks like a mainly dry day, with a few light scattered showers possible, mainly in Western areas. Temperatures will be similar to those on Friday, with clouds possibly holding highs 1-2 degrees lower.

 General Synopsis for Sunday's Setup overlayed on top of GFS Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure Maps for 8 a.m. Sunday, 15 April 2018.

General Synopsis for Sunday's Setup overlayed on top of GFS Precipitation and Sea Level Pressure Maps for 8 a.m. Sunday, 15 April 2018.

Sunday, on the other hand, will be the most interesting weather day for at least the next 5-7 days, as a strong cold front will push through the Eastern United States. Model forecast sounding profiles continue to suggest that widespread strong and severe thunderstorms are possible Sunday afternoon. The severe risk associated with this disturbance will be covered more thoroughly in the high impact weather briefing, so I'll focus on another equally important aspect of this system: the rain potential. The majority of the precipitation associated with the system on Sunday will be focused in a band of precipitation that looks to move through between noon and 8 p.m. on Sunday. Models still disagree somewhat on the total amounts, but 1-2" of rain looks to be the average amount of precipitation, with some isolated cells possibly bringing upwards of 4" of rain. The back edge of the precipitation will clear the area in the late hours of Sunday night into the early hours of Monday morning, with a few scattered snow showers possible once the front clears on Northwest-facing slopes above 4,000 feet elevation.

 European Model Estimated Moisture Concentration for 2 p.m. Sunday. Brown and Grey colors indicate drier conditions, while Green, Yellow, and Orange colors indicate moist conditions. You can see the Gulf Moisture being pulled up by this weekend's storm system in this image.

European Model Estimated Moisture Concentration for 2 p.m. Sunday. Brown and Grey colors indicate drier conditions, while Green, Yellow, and Orange colors indicate moist conditions. You can see the Gulf Moisture being pulled up by this weekend's storm system in this image.

 European Model Estimated Precipitation through 2 p.m. Monday, 16 April 2018

European Model Estimated Precipitation through 2 p.m. Monday, 16 April 2018

 GFS (American) Model Estimated Precipitation through 8 p.m Monday

GFS (American) Model Estimated Precipitation through 8 p.m Monday

As far as the beginning of next week, conditions will clear in time for the beginning of the new work week, but cooler temperatures will come with these clear conditions, as highs next Monday will stay in the upper 50s. Fortunately for all the warm weather lovers, this brief cool spell shouldn't last for more than a day and a half, as temperatures look poised to soar back into the 70s by the middle of next week. No significant disturbances are on the horizon for the 4-7 day time frame.

More information on Sunday's Severe threat will be posted on this page, so make sure to check back later.

Have a great Friday!

Chase Scott Graham