Active jet stream continues to provide long range variability in the weather pattern

We are now a few weeks into spring and looking at the weather it appears that the up-and-down pattern that we have been seeing lately may continue through the middle and end of April.

 

Looking at the synoptic weather pattern through the current forecast range and beyond a very active jet stream continues to move across the Continental US. Our part of the country is in the grasp of a deep trough that is delivering cold air and the threat of a frost or freeze.

 

Once we get into the middle of next week some ridging is expected to poke up into the Eastern US and in response expect a general warmup region-wide. We already have that noted in the current forecast as 70’s look to take charge starting on Wednesday and lasting through the end of the work week.


  Day 5 Projected 500mb winds

Day 5 Projected 500mb winds


 

The warmth ultimately comes at a price for parts of the country as deep southwest flow could result in increased moisture and the potential for severe weather. By next weekend a deep upper low and trough will be established across the Central States, so it should not be much of a shock if  a severe weather outbreak is occurring somewhere East of the Mississippi by next weekend…we are at that time of the year!

 

  Day 7 Projected  500 mb winds

Day 7 Projected  500 mb winds


 

 

Once we get past the current forecast toward the Day 10 timeframe the trough will have navigated the country and will be across the Eastern US, so by this general point in the long range we’re probably looking at another cool down.

 

  Day 10 Projected 500 mb winds

Day 10 Projected 500 mb winds


 

Overall the jet stream remains action-packed as a whole. Ridging across the Northern latitudes continue to focus everything across the US and Southern Canada and there are no real signs of it relaxing through the end of the month.

The good thing in all of this is that we are now in the month of April and by next weekend we’ll be at the mid-month point. Temperatures for this time of the year are normally in the lower 70’s with 40’s average at night. Tonight we are dealing with a frost/freeze threat, hopefully one of the last instances of that…

 

625.PNG

 

 

There are no current signs of a prolonged warm weather pattern in the works. Usually by the latter part of April you begin to see a few subtle signs of heat but right now we look to remain fairly close to normal (within 5-7 degrees either way)...

 

 

Daniel Crawley

Foothills Weather Network:

@SoApps1979

@FHWxN