Sunday Wx Briefing: the week ahead 4/8/18

Good afternoon, Foothills Weather Nation! This morning was pretty chilly to start off, but we're climbing into the lower 50's now which feels much more reasonable. 

Have you had a chance to read Daniel Crawley's weather discussion yesterday? If not, scroll down or here's the link to give it a look. He went into wonderful detail about our active jet stream that has brought us an interesting start to April and his thoughts on what the rest of April will shape up to be. 

My briefing today will be more of a shorter term focus with only discussing the week we have ahead. There will be three parts to discuss the three weather patterns NC has in store for us. 

Near term (today- Monday night)

A surface high pressure noses over the region today from our north-northeast bringing a bit of cooler air hence this morning's chilly start, but thanks to the abundance of sunshine we will see temperatures make a fair climb up into the mid to upper 50's for today. Overnight a shortwave trough will progress on through popping in a bit of instability and moisture for Monday day and a bit into Monday night. Currently we see a 40% chance of rain tomorrow that will be steady and generally uneventful. Cloud coverage overnight Sunday through to Tuesday will mute the diurnal lows and high to the low 40's and low 50's respectively. 

"Short" term (Tuesday-Saturday)

The bulk of our work week has a different feel for us as we will see partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions from Tuesday on through Saturday as a surface ridge builds over the forecasting area. Tuesday and Wednesday will be average in the idea of climatological April temperatures with highs in the mid 60's and lows in the low 40's. By Thursday we will be deep within a warm sector, encouraging temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 70's on through to Saturday. There is a smidge of precipitable water aloft in the earlier part of this time frame where some diurnal convection that might have a tiny chance of a few pop up showers, but over all we are seeing generally dry surface conditions until we go into Saturday night. 

Long term (Saturday night - Monday)

Model runs the past couple of days have given a strong suggestion of a strong, well developed cut off low pressure snapping down from Canada into the Midwest starting on Friday, dropping a strong temperature/pressure gradient that makes a bee line right for the Foothills. Current anticipated cold frontal impact looks to land as early as Saturday night, but is most likely on Sunday. This looks to bring plenty of wind and rain along with the passage for Sunday all the way through to as late as Monday. Diurnal highs on Sunday and Monday will likely drop, but only closer to climo (upper 50's), but the overnight lows are expected to drop yet again into the 30's. Overall, this specific event has certainly caught our attention and will be closely monitored. At this point we don't see a threat of any form of winter precipitation, but this will depend on the timing of the cold air mass and rain.

Thank you for reading! I hope you enjoy what's left of the weekend!