Good Monday Morning. As you head out the door this morning expect damp conditions and it is chilly. In our mountain areas the snow is flying this morning. In the mountains temps are in the low 30's and with the snowfall rates picking up I expect travel issues to arise as well. Outside of the mountains a few sleet reports have come in but with temps in the low 40's no travel issues. This trough will move East and then offshore by tonight returning our area to more of a brief zonal flow. Highs today will only manage the upper 40's to around 50 degrees. Rain and mountain snow today will subside around or shortly after Noontime.
Tonight temps fall back into the low and mid 40's (Mid 30's mountains). Skies will be slow to clear though as the trough becomes positively tilted and low pressure develops off the Carolina Coast. In fact it looks like Tuesday is trending more toward a mostly cloudy day. This will likely hold temps back just a little. Highs should still manage the low and maybe mid 60's.
Wednesday looks like it will start off with low clouds and fog. The GFS is pretty bullish on this low cloud deck and in turn holds onto it through the morning hours. It slowly erodes Wednesday Afternoon. The GFS seems to be the outlier here though and the low clouds will likely burn off in the late morning. It will not be a cloud free day though as high thin clouds want to hang around. High pressure moves to a position off the NC Coast near Wilmington though and our flow veers from the SW. In response to that, we will advertise temps 2-4 degrees above Tuesday's highs, likely in the mid 60's.
Thursday the high pressure off the coast of Wilmington begins to weak en and become elongated from NE to SW as low pressure passes off to the North. At the same time another mid latitude trough starts to take shape over the Rockies. For Thursday we will feature temps around 70 degrees and partly cloudy skies. Winds will become more gusty out of the Southwest with a few gusts up to around 20mph.
Friday starts out with a ridge of high pressure controlling our weather. The big trough to our west is ejecting out of the Rockies, east into the plains. Friday could be a sizeable severe weather day from the Arklatx region East to the Mississippi River. Locally though skies will be mostly clear with gusty SW winds, gusting to 25mph. This will be our warmest day of the week with temps in the mid 70's.
Saturday Morning high pressure is still in full control of our weather and it should slow the eastward progression of the strong cold front. Debris clouds will spill East Saturday into our area though blowing off from the top of of those severe storms back over the Arklatx. Saturday should feature partly cloudy skies and temps in the upper 60's.
From here the forecast timing differs per model but we are 6 days out so we would expect some differences. Timing will be the key with this front as to how much severe weather our area sees. Originally the thinking was that this would pass overnight Sunday into Monday. If that were to happen the severe threat would be limited. However, now it appears that it could be a little quicker and move in during peak heating with temps in the upper 60's. CAPE values are modest at best so we could be looking at a low cape high sheer event. The European model is very bullish on this event. We will continue to monitor and update as we move forward.