Early wakeup call from the tropics: Development possible in Eastern Gulf of Mexico this week

Good Sunday evening…the calendar says May 13th but the are looking ahead of schedule as the tropics may be waking up just ahead of the June 1st start to the 2018 Atlantic Hurricane Season.

 

The National Hurricane Center has issued an outlook on disturbance located in the Eastern Gulf of Mexico. This is currently associated with an upper low pressure but it could eventually work its way down to the surface. The National Hurricane Center has officially given this area a 40% chance at development over the next five days. As you can see on the current water vapor image it is very disorganized…however the moisture content has delivered a rainy Sunday to a lot of the Florida Peninsula.

 

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If we do see development from this feature early next week the likely movement will be north and northwest toward the Eastern or Central Gulf Coast Region. Computer model ensembles seem to have a solid handle on this feature. None of these members have this low intensifying to great intensity but a good number of them does have a surface reflection that will move north and into the Gulf Coast Region by the middle part of the week.

 

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Regardless of the strength of this feature, the same general impacts will be felt and that is the possibility of enhanced rainfall initially in Florida and along the Gulf Coast but eventually the tropical airmass will spread into the Interior Southeast including the Western Carolinas. Recent weather has been dry across our region so this rainfall will be beneficial, however the further we go along this setup could turn into too much of a good thing…

 

Rain chances locally look to be going up starting on Tuesday and lasting through the end of the week…

 

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Daniel Crawley: @SoApps1979
Foothills Weather Network: @FHWxN