Sunday Wx Briefing: The Week Ahead 5/20/18

Good morning, Foothills Weather Nation.

Last week the headline for the week ahead said it'd be "wet n' wild" and wet and wild it has been. We hope that everyone has managed to escape any damages and remained safe in all of our counties. 

So, we're sure you all might be wondering when will this rain stop and what this week might have in store for us. That's a bit of a mixed bag as there is finally a bit of upper atmospheric movement taking place, but here on the surface the results will feel pretty similar to what we had last week. Plenty of south-southeasterly flow, moisture, high precipitation probability days with only a couple of opportunities for sunshine.

Near term forecast (Today-Tonight )

Current conditions are mostly cloudy with slight clearing, variable winds of around 3 mph, and a temperature in the upper 70's. Diurnal high today is projected to be in the low 80's, so it shouldn't get much warmer. We're at a smaller chance of precipitation (30%) for the calendar day of Sunday than the days prior, but we will still run the risk of some showers and thunderstorms later today into tonight. Temperatures have been on the milder side and will certainly remain so with our bounty of cloud coverage and moisture locking that in.

Short term forecast (Monday-Friday)

To best summarize on the why for what we're about to forecast is that normally the jet stream likes to oscillate in the mid latitudes (encompassing NC). What's different right now is that the "mid latitude" jet stream is much narrower in height and is keeping itself closer to the US/Canada border. What we will see begin to happen in the work week of this week is that a strong low pressure centered in Canada will strengthen deeply and drag along the typical warm front, wet sector, and cold front with dry sector to follow it. As this low pressure takes it's time to build during the week we will see fluctuations of highly moist and moderate amounts of precipitable water available. For example, on Monday in particular is a moisture heavy day compared to today, and promises higher precipitation chances as a bump of moisture propagates through. Tuesday is a bit of a break with moisture levels being similar to today. On Wednesday we see a slight bump in precipitable water in the am hours so whatever rainfall we see there shouldn't be too rough. Thursday onto Friday we see a little bump in temperature (upper 80's) as that aforementioned warm front comes in, but it's looking like it might dry out (partly sunny conditions) ever so slightly with  on Friday ahead of our weekend cold frontal passage .

Long term forecast (Saturday-Monday)

This is where the meat is in the forecast. A long awaited cold front will begin to make impact on Saturday where precipitation probabilities will rise again just ahead of the front. Expect Saturday and Sunday to be plenty of rain with the normal risks of potential thunderstorms and isolated severe weather considering the strength of the front, available moisture, and available heat to work with. 

 06z GFS valid 21z Monday, May 28

06z GFS valid 21z Monday, May 28

The point of the graphic above is to show you how tight that precipitable water line remains in that once the passage of this front finally comes through, we should certainly see our bounty of sunshine and dryer conditions. This is the best answer we can offer for "when will this rain ever be over?"  Soon. We're hoping next Tuesday. 

Thanks for reading! Try to stay dry, and keep checking in with us!