Good Tuesday Morning. I hope your work week is off to a great start! We have a wet forecast ahead. Currently as you head out the door this morning though in most areas it is mostly clear. Areas that have cleared off are seeing areas of dense fog. Give yourself extra travel time. However out Southern Foothills (Cleveland/Rutherford Counties) are still seeing showers hang around due to a very moist Southwest flow.
Tuesday is set to be a wetter day than our day was on Monday. This is due to the better lift that will return to our area as a weak low pressure system approaches. There is not going to be much in the atmosphere to move showers and storms along. Additionally clusters of showers and storms may develop and move over the same locations or anchor in place. Rainfall rates will be higher today than on Monday as well and I expect some storms to produce nearly 2 inches of rain per hour. Flash flooding will be a concern. Additionally mudslides and landslides are likely to occur. Be very mindful of how saturated our ground is before deciding to cross flooded roads. Roadways are washing out much quicker especially in the higher terrain. A few storms on could become severe this afternoon. Damaging winds will be the main threat although a few locations could also see quarter sized hail. Showers and storms should last into the nighttime hours before winding down.
Wednesday....Yep you guessed right more rain. Chances of rain will actually increase (as if Mother Nature needed additional reasons to make it rain) yet again. A cold front will approach from the West and place our region in the best area for organized showers and storms. A couple of the storms could be severe producing damaging winds and large hail. Additionally, storms may be slow movers and organize into clusters. Flash flooding and mud slides will be a concern yet again. Storms could last well into Wednesday Night before ending.
Thursday the best chance of showers and thunderstorms will finally move off to the south and East. Thursday and Friday will feature our lowest precipitation chances of the week. While chances will not be zero they will only be 20 - 40%. Hopefully some of the areas will get this brief window of time to dry out just a little.
The weekend looks like it could be a mess. Saturday appears to be the better of the two days right now but chances for rain bump back up even then from the 20-40% range to the 40-60% range. Saturday's rain will come from a weak boundary that should wash out over our area. From there our long range models tend to agree, with some variance, that a tropical/subtropical low pressure system develops between the Gulf of Mexico and Cuba. Models do differ on the track from there. The Euro moves the system North and up the Mississippi River Valley while the GFS develops the system over Cuba and then brings it North through Florida before making a boomerang move to the West. Either scenario that plays out means a lot of the same for our area. South/Southeast flow bringing lots of moisture into our area from Saturday through Monday. Rain totals could really pile up in a hurry which causes concern for additional flash flooding across the area. This is something that we will have to watch close and tweak as the forecast grows closer. All interests along streams, creeks, and rivers should monitor this forecast closely.