We continue to monitor activity in the Western Caribbean this evening and the eventual impact for parts of the US for Memorial Day Weekend and beyond.
Invest 90L continues to hang around the Yucatan with a broad surface low over land and plenty of convection east of the weak circulation. The National Hurricane Center has upgraded the probability to 90% of this feature developing into a tropical or sub-tropical system by this weekend.
Current hurricane guidance along with global computer models have converged toward a solution in the short term of this storm developing into the Eastern Gulf of Mexico and move northward. Eventual landfall of this tropical system is far from certain due to several factors, it could be anywhere from Louisiana to the Florida Panhandle.
Regardless of how strong this low becomes, it will be the abundant moisture that will be the biggest impact to Florida, the Gulf Coast and inland across the Southeast the closer we get to Memorial Day. There are signs that the low pressure could slow down once it approaches the Gulf Coast.
This has the makings of a long-duration rain event where surges of moisture could lead to heavy rainfall totals. That is shown well in the latest 7-Day forecast from the Weather Prediction Center as a good part of the Southeast could get heavy to at times excessive rainfall. The areas at risk of the highest rain totals will be closest to the surface low track…but here locally upslope flow on the east side of the Southern Appalachians could provide an additional focus of deep moisture banking up against the higher terrain.
We will begin to know more on this potential heavy rain event once some consistency can be found in the models…stay tuned through the upcoming Memorial Day Weekend for the latest weather info. Our advise right now for anyone who may have outdoor activities planned this weekend is to proceed as planned but have a backup plan ready to activate…