Subtropical Storm Alberto - Update 1: 5/25/18

HIGHLIGHTS: Alberto currently weak, expected to strengthen slightly and make landfall in Gulf states, significant rain possible for NC

 National Hurricane Center Advisory 01 for Subtropical Storm Alberto, 10 a.m. CDT, 5/25/18

National Hurricane Center Advisory 01 for Subtropical Storm Alberto, 10 a.m. CDT, 5/25/18

As of 11 a.m. EDT today, the National Hurricane Center has begun to issue advisories for the first tropical disturbance of the season, Subtropical Storm Alberto. Alberto is currently located off the Yucatan Peninsula (Official Coordinates: 19.7, -86.8) and is expected to drift generally northward over the next few days. Currently, Alberto has maximum sustained winds of 40 mph, and wind speeds are expected to increase so that the storm may be a moderate to strong tropical storm by the time it makes landfall.

The major story (as far as we are concerned here in Western North Carolina) is the rain that Alberto may bring for our area. Current global model forecasts for precipitation for Western North Carolina are as follows: European Model: 1-2", Global Forecast System (American) Model: 2-4". We'll have to watch to see how the forecast track changes over the next few days. Below are model projections of the forecast track of Alberto, as well as the potential rainfall from Alberto.

 European Ensemble forecasts for the track of Subtropical Storm Alberto. Red/Orange colors suggest a higher likelihood of the storm tracking there, while Blue colors suggest a lower likelihood of the storm tracking there.

European Ensemble forecasts for the track of Subtropical Storm Alberto. Red/Orange colors suggest a higher likelihood of the storm tracking there, while Blue colors suggest a lower likelihood of the storm tracking there.

 GFS (American) Ensemble forecasts for the track of Subtropical Storm Alberto. Red/Orange colors suggest a higher likelihood of the storm tracking there, while Blue colors suggest a lower likelihood of the storm tracking there.

GFS (American) Ensemble forecasts for the track of Subtropical Storm Alberto. Red/Orange colors suggest a higher likelihood of the storm tracking there, while Blue colors suggest a lower likelihood of the storm tracking there.

 European Deterministic 7-Day Precipitation

European Deterministic 7-Day Precipitation

 GFS (American) Deterministic 7-day Precipitation

GFS (American) Deterministic 7-day Precipitation

Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham