Weather Briefing: Friday, May 4th, 2018

HIGHLIGHTS: A disturbance moves in for the weekend, mild next week, a BIG warm up possible late next week

 GFS Model-Forecasted setup for this weekend. Important surface features are labeled on the map.

GFS Model-Forecasted setup for this weekend. Important surface features are labeled on the map.

Over the past few days, we've seen mainly clear conditions with progressively warmer temperatures. We'll see possibly the warmest day so far this year today, with highs reaching the mid-to-upper 80s across the area. Clear conditions will also continue for the day on Friday. As we head into the weekend, a disturbance which has caused numerous amounts of severe weather over the middle of the country will start to move into the eastern United States. Depending on how much the cold front (which will slow to a stationary front) moves to the East, we could see either warm and mainly dry conditions for the day on Saturday or milder and wetter conditions. Currently, it looks like the stationary front will be close enough to our area to provide a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms throughout the weekend. Because the front will struggle to move eastward over the weekend, there will be a consistent chance of rain over the weekend and into the early part of Monday. Eventually, the front will weaken to the point of being unrecognizable, and high pressure will begin to develop to our northeast. As it does, some models are suggesting that the high pressure system could funnel cool air into our area for the middle of the week, keeping temperatures in check through a setup called "cold air damming". This cool flow could also bring moist air into out area, so there is still a possibility for rain into the middle of the week.

 Possible Cold-Air Damming setup for next Tuesday

Possible Cold-Air Damming setup for next Tuesday

As we head into the latter half of next week, a ridge of warm air will start to spread eastward over the United States, causing temperatures to increase in our area. Temperatures should increase from the day on Wednesday through the day on Saturday, with mainly dry conditions overhead. As a result of this long warming pattern, we could easily see temperatures make it back up into the mid- and upper-80s by next weekend. Otherwise, no major synoptic-scale disturbances appear on the horizon.

 Ridge-Trough Pattern for the Early-to-Middle part of next week. Relative temperatures are given by the "hot" and "mild" labels.

Ridge-Trough Pattern for the Early-to-Middle part of next week. Relative temperatures are given by the "hot" and "mild" labels.

 Ridge-Trough Pattern for the end of next week. The wave loses amplitude, causing warm air to spill eastward, and cold air to be pushed off to the north.

Ridge-Trough Pattern for the end of next week. The wave loses amplitude, causing warm air to spill eastward, and cold air to be pushed off to the north.

Have a great weekend!

Chase Scott Graham