Good Sunday morning, we hope that your weekend has been great to this point. We are taking a look at the weather pattern that appears to be taking hold here in the medium and long range.
Today through about Tuesday we will have a weakness aloft across the Southeast US and that will allow for clouds, rain chances and more importantly cooler weather. Temperatures the next few days look to stay at or below the 80 degree mark for afternoon highs.
However once we get toward the middle of next week, warmth kicks back in big time and a taste of early summer, minus the humidity, could take hold.
Looking at the ensemble guidance, ridging across the US appears to settle back in by the end of next week and will last through the middle part of the month. This has been a recent change in the pattern, after going through an abnormally cold March and April, it appears that May has kicked in a pattern change…at least temporarily.
The early spring featured a lot of high latitude blocking which is known teleconnection-wise as a -NAO. That usually resulted in colder and active weather across the Eastern US. The teleconnection has obviously switched to a more +NAO which usually associates with milder and somewhat drier weather.
The + NAO looks to hold firm until the end of the month. It will be interesting to see if this is only temporary or if it becomes a trend for the summer. The past several months have been wetter than normal, is that run going to end? Only time will tell…
Anyway, here is a look at current guidance and what the ensembles are portraying for parts of the coverage area. Again, its only guidance so don’t take the numbers verbatim…just note the overall trend!