As of 6:10am:
Good Monday Morning! I hope you all had an awesome weekend. We are starting this Monday Morning out with mostly clear skies and what should be a beautiful sunrise shortly across Western NC. Temps out the door in the upper 60’s.
Today: Showers and thunderstorms will develop first in the mountains during the late morning hours but then will expand and spread east. Weak pulses of energy will move through the region today creating more instability. Today’s severe threat will be isolated to widely scattered. The main threats will be large hail and isolated damaging winds. Of more concern today are the weak steering currents aloft. There just isn’t much to steer and move these storms along in the atmosphere today. This could allow storms to sit over local areas for long periods of time creating some flash flooding. The threat of flash flooding isn’t widespread enough to prompt any watches ahead of the convection but I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see one or two Flash Flood Warnings. There is some weak sheer present too so a couple of thunderstorm clusters are possible. It’s something we will monitor close. Lightning will likely be intense today too as updrafts should have no problem building into subfreezing boundary layers. High temps today will be in the mid and upper 70’s in the mountains and mid 80’s across the Foothills. Here is NOAA Weather Predictions Center’s excessive rainfall risk today. We are in risk level 1 out of 4, Marginal Risk, for flash flooding.
Here is today’s severe weather risk from NOAA Storms Predictions Center. We are in a marginal risk, risk level 1 of 5, for severe weather,
Tonight: Showers and storms will likely continue into the early nighttime hours. Later on tonight a wedge frontal boundary will approach from the Northeast. As this front pushes Southwest across the area it should cut the thunderstorms off. Behind the front though skies will remain overcast. More of a stratiform light rain and drizzle is possible as the front pushes through. Lows overnight will be in the mid and upper 60’s with damp conditions.
Tuesday: Tuesday is shaping up to be more of a cloudy and cooler day. That back door wedge front has a high pressure that moves off the New England Coast. This is a very favorable track for the high to allow moisture to dam up against the Eastern slopes of the mountains. This morning we will trend forecast high temps down a bit further than we advertised yesterday to account for widespread cloud cover and some drizzle/light rain. Rainfall should remain light and shouldnt cause any issues with additional flooding on Tuesday.