The Heat Is On!! Storm Chances Increase By Weeks End.

-Christopher White, Chief Meteorologist              Wednesday Morning 7:00am

Good Wednesday Morning to everyone out across the foothills. Hope you had a great nights rest and are ready for a scorcher.  If you were lucky enough to see a cooling shower on Tuesday Evening there will be some patchy fog there this morning.  Otherwise clear skies out there as seen on this visible satellite image as of 6:45am, as the sun is just up over the horizon enough to give us our first visible satellite image of the day. 

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Temperatures are going to soar through the day and as Daniel wrote in the day planner found HERE .  High temps today in the mid 90’s but dewpoints should mix out in the lower to mid 60’s today as opposed to being almost 70° yesterday. No doubt that some of those bank and car thermometers will be pegging out in the 100’s today again though.  Some high clouds will skirt through the area today that are currently seen in Tennessee on the Satellite image above. That could keep temps down a couple degrees off yesterday’s high temps as well.  Since some drier air is working in from the Northwest today, in response to the weakening area of high pressure over our area, storm chances will be down to about 30% today in the mountains and foothills.  Storm motions today from the Northwest will be more progressive than we have seen in a few days.  Any storm that can get going over the Blue Ridge today will quickly move out I to the foothills and then the piedmont.  The better chances for storms today actually are along that I-77 and I-85 corridors and points South And East.  That should be where the better chances of severe weather stay too but don’t be surprised if one of these storms that move off the mountains briefly pulse up and become severe.  The main threats today though are cloud to ground lightning strikes and heavy rain. Any storm that becomes severe could quickly pulse up and come right back down creating a very localized damaging wind threat. Here is the SPC’s thunderstorm outlook for today. (Light green is general thunderstorm risk and dark green is a marginal severe thunderstorm risk)

 

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Chances for storms increase to on Thursday (50-60% chance) and then especially Friday (70-80% chance) as a series of disturbances swing through the area thanks to a driving upper level low over the Midwest. Going into the weekend chances for storms continue as well but will drop the chance back to 30-40% chances.  Temperatures remain hot on Thursday as we should reach the low 90’s again. Friday is looking better temp wise than at forecast time yesterday afternoon and I think we will stay in the mid to maybe upper 80’s for Friday due to more clouds and better rain chances. For the weekend temps should run in the upper 80’s to around 90°.

 

Chances for rain and storms co to us going into next week as well as weak disturbances make a run at the forecast area almost every day. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a mesoscale convecice System (MCS) develop and move Southeast into our area once or twice. Those systems are difficult to forecast a day out though, much less 6-7days out.  The do usually mean severe weather in the areas they affect though so we will watch that. 

Have a wonderful Wednesday and stay cool.