Christopher White - Chief Meteorologist
8:30pm: Severe Weather threat ends. Rain will move off the mountains and it could be heavy at times but by morning this rainfall will have ended. Another MCS will be making its way through East Tennessee or close to there by sunrise but as it moves East it will weaken as it interacts with stable air. More thunderstorms are likely and they will likely be widespread again Wednesday afternoon.
7:30pm Update: Storms have now entered the mountains and are showing signs of weakening. The main area of concern will be the Southwest portion of the state where widespread wind damage is already occurring. Now we still think the threat for damaging winds exists from Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, and Rutherford Counties. Basically the greatest threats will be in the western portion of those counties and then the storms should weaken as they move East. Once they get down to Alexander, Catawba, Lincoln, and Cleveland Counties the storms shouldn’t be severe. There may still be a rumble of thunder and likely some rain in those counties but by in large the severe threat remains West of there. We are live on our Foothills Weather Network McDowell County Page Until the storms weaken. We will also continuously provide updates here. Again, main threats for damaging winds remain in Caldwell, Burke, McDowell, and Rutherford Counties.
5:00pm Forecast Update: As wendiscussed earimer in the day an MCS (Mesoscale Convective System) has developed across Kentucky and Tennessee. Our area has now been upgraded into a slight risk of Severe Thunderstorms Through Midnight. It looks like this line of storms will reach the mountains first between 6pm and 9pm, then move east affecting our 8 counties between 7 and 10pm. These storms could produce widespread damaging winds across our area again. It is important to note that the current rainfall and storms affecting our area now have stabilized things over all of our 8 counties. That stabilization may do little to slow this line of storms down and we could briefly break into some sun between now and when this line arrives. That would destabilize things a little before the line arrives. So our update to you at this point is to make preparations for the loss of power, damage to trees and powerlines, and possibly winds that could damage structures between 7pm and 12am. We will continue to update this blog post so check back often.
Forecast Update12:30pm: Precipitation chances increasing now this afternoon. Shower and storms are developing and lightning alerts are already being issued. A cold front has stalled along Hwy 74. Moisture is running up and over that front causing shower and storms to develop overhead. A cluster of thunderstorms has really gotten its act together over Kentucky. It’s moving East-Southeast but most of that cluster will pass by to our North. Caldwell and Alexander may be impacted though. CAPE has climbed to 1500 j/kg in response to sunshine across the area. Catawba, Alexander, and Lincoln have seen more clouds this morning than our western counties and their CAPE is a bit lower than our western foothills, around 900 j/kg. All of that being said expect showers and storms to increase in coverage this afternoon to about 60-80% coverage.
Good Tuesday Morning. Low clouds and fog are likely across much of the area this morning. At 2:30am the cold front that moved in from the North yesterday has now stalled roughly along I-40 but then stretches toward Boone before crossing the mountains. This frontal boundary will act as a focal point for more showers and thunderstorms later today. In fact models indicate that storms really start to fire just after the Noon hour. This morning though showers have developed over the Northern counties in Alexander and Caldwell. A few of those showers are drifting Southeast into Catawba County as well.
Models indicate another stormy afternoon on tap as said above. It looks like a few storms will develop in the mountains first during late morning Tuesday and then those will drift South and East. These first storms will be widely scattered 40% coverage. Shortly after Noon stems could start to become widespread. There is the potential another MCS develops in East TN or maybe even on top of our area. Scattered wind damage is likely again. Right now our area is in a marginal risk for severe weather. I wouldn’t be surprised if we get upgraded into a slight risk though later today. Watch for updates as we go through the day.
This morning’s SPC Outlook.