Midweek weather briefing: Dog Days of Summer are here, rain/storm chances to slowly increase through forecast period.

Good Wednesday afternoon, we are definitely in those lazy, hazy days of summer across the Eastern US. “The Dog Days of Summer” as many want to refer it as to being…

 

 

Looking at the water vapor image this afternoon, plenty of things that you can see at work. First off, Hurricane Chris off the East Coast of the US being steered away due to the sharp trough that is sliding through New England. South of where Chris is, down in the Bahamas you can see the concentrated moisture, believe it or not that is the remnants of what once was Beryl that formed late last week in the Tropical Atlantic ocean. Good news is that Beryl will follow the same path as Chris, will not develop and remain off-shore.

 

 

A weak boundary thanks in part to the digging trough is pushing southward toward the Southeast US. Its this boundary that will be the main player in our weather in the short term. A few showers and storms are possible the next couple days due to this feature but its not real strong in nature and the moisture content to work with is limited…so that will keep storm coverage limited as well…

 

 

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That’s a look at what is going on now…let’s take a gander at what could be coming down the road through the rest of the 7-day forecast and beyond. We are nearing that point in the calendar where the main jet stream is in its furthest north position for the summer season…and the 500 mb forecast through the next five days clearly shows that. Above normal heights across a good part of North America means that the pattern will be free of any major storm systems. Any storm chances in this part of the forecast through the upcoming weekend will be driven more by mesoscale effects (outflow boundaries, seabreeze, terrain influenced lift). In general expect hot and humid days, mild evenings and isolated to scattered storm chances that will vary each day.

 

 

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Now, as we get into next week things may begin to change a little bit. There are signs that the overall higher heights across the United States may break into two sections, one centered over the four-corners region and another over New England and extending into the Northwest Atlantic ocean. In between those two regions, we may see a general weakness or lowering of heights begin to develop…and for here in the Southeast US, lowering heights is about all you need in mid July to help promote more widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage in the afternoons. Those same mesoscale features that we mentioned earlier are in play but the atmosphere overall will be lessed capped if the ensemble guidance holds firm in that is it showing.

 

 

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Temperature-wise the impacts won’t be all that significant. Expect daytime high’s within 3-5 degrees of what is normal for this time of the year, it’s just the increased potential for precipitation…especially starting next week as the weakness aloft begins to develop over the Eastern US.

 

 

 

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Daniel Crawley: (Twitter: @SoApps1979)

Foothills Weather Network: (Twitter: @FHWxN)