Tuesday 5:00am - Chief Meteorologist Christopher White
Strong South and Southeast flow will pull moisture into the are off of the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. As the week progresses the flood threat increases daily, peaking on Thursday and Friday. By the weekend activity should become more scattered and any flooding issues, if any, should become more isolated and localized. A Flash Flood Watch is in effect of the entire 8 county coverage area until 8:00pm Thursday Night.
As of 3:00am Tuesday Morning shower and storm activity is on the upward swing again as moisture and lift increase over the area. Cells today should have a little more forward motion to the Northeast as winds aloft become a little stronger ahead of an approaching short wave. Low level flow will be from the South and Southeast though allowing for multiple rounds of showers and storms to develop and move over the same areas repeatedly. The area of most concern is up along the Blue Ridge Eastern slopes of Burke, Caldwell, McDowell, and Rutherford Counties as 1-2 inches of rainfall have already fallen there between Sunday and Monday.
Several short waves will rotate through the upper level trough that is responsible for bringing this mess to us. Today (Tuesday) will lay the ground work for what I am worried will be a very busy Wednesday and Thursday. Wednesday and Thursday a piece of that aforementioned energy rotates into the area at the same time that the highest precipitation rates will move through. This could mean streams and creeks will rapidly flash flood overnight Wednesday into Thursday. Rainfall rates will likely exceed 2 inches of rain per hour. We have a real concern of these cells training and anchoring on the Blue Ridge.
Here are our High Impact Weather Briefing Graphics.