10:00am Wednesday August 1st, 2018- Chief Meteorologist Chris White
Have updated High Impact Weather update with the new Storm Predictions Centers Severe Weather upgrade. This includes all 8 of our counties with an upgrade to slight risk. Slight risk means that there is a 15% risk of seeing damaging winds within 25 miles of any one given spot on the map. Thunderstorms should erupt this afternoon and these will last into the evening. As these thunderstorms grow they could encounter just enough sheer which would allow them to organize into a couple of clusters. Localized damaging wind threat does exist. The main threat today continues to be the potential flash flooding though.
5:15am Wednesday August 1st, 2018 - Chief Meteorologist Chris White
A deep trough will move east and interact with a ridge of high pressure located over the Atlantic. Lobes of upper level energy will rotate through the trough and interact with the warm and moist flow off the Gulf of Mexico and Atlantic. This will increase rainfall rates where the convection gets going. A narrow band of convection will likely develop and train over the same areas repeatedly where this trough runs into the Atlantic Ridge. Models have pushed that line of convection West and now are really in agreement with the precipitation adding up quick this afternoon. A little more alarming is that confidence is growing in a surface low that moves North on Thursday Evening into Friday. Precipitation rates will likely now max out Thursday Afternoon into the predawn hours on Friday Morning. Additional rainfall on the order of 2-7 inches are likely. Most of our area will receive anywhere from 2-4 inches of rain with the higher amounts of 4-7 inches fairly localized to that narrow banding. In response to overnight developments the Flash Flood Watch is now extended until 8:00am Friday Morning. Landslides and flash flooding are probable, especially Thursday Evening into the predawn hours of Friday. There is a low end threat of isolated wet microbursts to occur this afternoon and evening. A couple of severe warnings may be needed for straight line winds this afternoon.
As always keep it here and we will keep you abreast of the latest developments.