5:00am Monday August 6th, 2018 - Chief Meteorologist Christopher White
Good Monday Morning. Mostly clear skies and all of the shower and storm activity from Sunday Evening has died out. There are some areas of patchy fog along Hwy 321 and 16 in our Eastern Counties. Otherwise it should be a pleasant commute in this morning with temps around 70 degrees.
More of the same pattern today as a ridge of high pressure out over the Atlantic has full control of our pattern. Flow today will become more Westerly but still not strong enough to move things along. So expect more of the slow moving showers and storms today. Precipitation rates should be a tad lower but still higher than normal, around 1.5 inches per hour in the strongest storms. Storms today may get strong with a lot of lightning but not a huge risk of severe weather. Localized flash flooding cannot be ruled out today. High temps will be in the upper 80's to low 90's.
The same type of pattern will hold on for Tuesday as well. Afternoon showers and storms in a typical summer pattern. Highs will be a degree or two above Monday's highs likely around 90 to the low 90's.
By Wednesday another weak cold front will approach the area from the NW. Showers and storms will see an up tick in coverage by Wednesday. That front makes it into the area Wednesday Night so thunderstorms may linger into the early nighttime hours. That front will sag South of our area and stall by Thursday Morning.
Thursday and later in the period get a little more questionable. The flow splits and Northern stream energy will be kept across the Great Lakes and New England. The Southern jet remains South but the question arrives as to how much. Waves of energy will travel through this Southern Stream. Depending on where exactly that front settles and that southern stream this period could be wet. Temps are a little difficult to but will air on the side of typical summer weather and forecast upper 80's.
The weekend arrives and it could be wet. Models coming into better agreement that an upper low will dive down to Indiana and create a Southerly flow out of the Gulf again. If this occurs there could be additional hydro concerns across the area. Plenty of time to fine tune that though.